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Bear Digest

Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers: Who Wins and Why for Week 1

A weekly comparison of Bears position group matchups with their opponent, and final prediction on the score as Caleb Williams and Co. travel to Charlotte, N.C.
Gene Chamberlain|
Bears quarterback Caleb Williams scrambles to set up a touchdown in the Bears' 2024 win over the Panthers at Soldier Field.
Bears quarterback Caleb Williams scrambles to set up a touchdown in the Bears' 2024 win over the Panthers at Soldier Field. | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

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Chicago Bears

Bears coach Ben Johnson loves what he has seen from the team throughout training camp and straight up to the final practice before Sunday's season opener.

Last year this couldn't be said, and it was apparent when he made one of his most famous remarks of the 2025 season right after the team lost 52-21 to the Detroit Lions in Week 2.

“I think I made a comment last year about we’re not practicing at a championship level yet," Johnson recalled. "And I’m not saying that this year. I like these guys, the work that they’re putting in throughout the week. It doesn’t guarantee you a win on Sunday, but it gives you a darn chance.

"And so I’m happy about what I’m seeing from all those guys. And as a result from that, they all get better. They all get better and it’s an easy thing to do Week 1. It’s a lot more challenging as we get into this thing and their bodies don’t feel 100%. And yet, you know, for us to be at our best on game day, we’ll have a little discomfort during the course of the week.”

A full year into the Ben Johnson era, it's his team. They've made their changes, endured injury losses and are ready for game day.

It's the Bears and Panthers in the heat and humidity at Charlotte for Week 1. Here's who wins and why.

Bears running vs. Panthers run defense

Carolina's 20th-ranked run defense struggled to 4.4 yards a carry allowed last year and that's begging to be beaten by the Bears. However, they made one huge change to thair 3-4 front that could offset this and that's signing second-team All-Pro linebacker Devin Lloyd. The Bears like where they are as a run-blocking unit but it's really center Garrett Bradbury's first test heading up that group. Their use of 13-personnel is going to weigh heavily in this game. Kyle Monangai is back running at full strength and D'Andre Swift looks as fast as ever after his contract extension. Edge Bears

Bears passing vs. Panthers pass defense

Carolina bolstered its pass defense with edge rusher Jaelan Phillips, who has been better at pass rush win rate than he is at actually finishing sacks. That can be a huge problem facing Caleb Williams because of his ability to go off platform and improvise. The Panthers have a few effective DBs, particularly cornerback Jaycee Horn, but finished 24th in defensive passing EPA last year and would need an awfully large unforeseen boost from Phillips to counter a Bears passing game rising with Caleb Williams and their young receivers. The Bears were ninth in passing EPA despite being in their offense for the first time. Tight end Colston Loveland will be difficult for the Panthers to counter, even with Lloyd's strong coverage ability. Edge Bears

Panthers running vs. Bears run defense

It's hard to see how the Bears count this as an improved front seven after getting rid of three-year starter Gervon Dexter, adding sixth-round rookie Jordan van den Berg and journeyman practice squad player Kentavius Street, but Devin Bush's speed addition and tackling ability at linebacker can help. Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard has averaged 4.0 yards per carry or more in only two of his five seasons and had only 511 rushing yards last year. He also had a training camp injury that slowed him. The Panthers do have solid run blocking from guards Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt but were 19th in rushing and 27th in rushing TDs. No Edge

Panthers passing vs. Bears pass defense

The inexperience issue in the Bears' secondary with rookies Dillon Thieneman and possibly Malik Muhammad playing with starters, and Cam Lewis new to the group, but Carolina isn't a team with a boatload of talented receivers. It wouldn't be shocking if defensive coordinator Dennis Allen had Jaylon Johnson guarding Tet McMillan to try and remove that one main threat. Then it's players like Jalen Coker, Xavier Legette and Tommy Tremble who would concern the Bears. The biggest mismatches in the game are Austin Booker and Montez Sweat rushing against tackle Monroe Freeling and former Packers tackle Rasheed Walker. Last year Booker terrorized Walker and Sweat is facing a rookie. Even if Bryce Young gets time, the Panthers were 27th last year in Passing EPA and would struggle if McMillan is neutralized. Edge Bears

Special teams

The Panthers were second defending kick returns last year but 28th defending punt returns and that's where Kalif Raymond and/or Zavion Thomas figure to be at their best. Cairo Santos missed five field goals last year while Panthers kicker Ryan Fitzgerald missed five in his rookie season of 2025 but also missed three extra points. The two punters last year were within a tenth of a yard of each other in average. No Edge

Coaching

League insiders show great respect for Dave Canales and what he did last year, getting a team into the playoffs in his second season. However, he hasn't had a winning record yet in two seasons as coach while Ben Johnson turned the Bears around and challenged for a spot in the NFC Championship Game last season.

Canales won't be calling plays this year and has turned it over to offensive coordinator Brad Idzik, who will do it on a regular basis for the first time in his career. Edge Bears

Intangibles

The Bears do not want to get into a tight game or trail entering the final few minutes because then the Carolina heat and humidity can enter into the picture. Pressure is on the Bears due to heightened expectations and it's safe to say little is expected from Carolina despite making the playoffs last year. Edge Panthers

This week's picks

The DraftKings Line: Bears by 3 (Over/under 47 1/2)

Gene Chamberlain's pick: Bears 34, Panthers 30

Bears and Panthers betting trends

  • The Bears were 12-7 last year against the spread.
  • The Panthers were 11-7 last year ATS.
  • The Bears were 9-9-1 last year over/under.
  • Panthers games were under 10 of 18 times.
  • The Panthers were 6-3 at home last year ATS.
  • The Bears were 5-4 ATS last year on the road.
  • The Bears have won the last four matchups with Carolina straight up, and seven of the last eight.
  • Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. 
  • If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER. 

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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