Bear Digest

Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals Week 9 who wins and why

A closer look at the positional group battles in Sunday's Bears game at Cincinnati with betting line information and a prediction on the final score.
Gene Chamberlain|
Bears QB Caleb Williams settles in against the Bengals in preseason play. Williams faces the Bengals defense for real Sunday.
Bears QB Caleb Williams settles in against the Bengals in preseason play. Williams faces the Bengals defense for real Sunday. | Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

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Chicago Bears

For the second week, the Bears can't be certain of the quarterback.

The smart money says it's ageless Joe Flacco starting Sunday for Cincinnati over Jake Browning. At least there haven't been any reports of false injury updates this week.

It shouldn't affect preparation because both QBs are pocket passers, although Flacco definitely has a better rapport with his receivers in only three games than Browning has after being with the team three years.

“I thought we handled it really well," Bears coach Ben Johnson said of last week's opposing QB situation. "We went into that week thinking that their starter was going to be up. He's a really good player, obviously.

"I think we handled it the right way when we found out he wasn't going to be up. We pivoted to the next option. I think that's what you do in this league. The great teams, the great players, the great coaches, they adjust. We have this motto in the quarterback room, ‘No one adjusts better than us.’ That's just par for the course. It’s just another week of a little bit more of the same.”

Not quite.

This is a Bengals team with extremely serious flaws, unlike Baltimore had even when it was 1-5. 

The Bears face the league's worst defense, both against the run and the pass. They also can't stop  anyone in the red zone, ranking 30th in TD percentage allowed.

It's also a Bengals team with great firepower in receiver Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

The Bears are 2 1/2-point road favorites. It comes down to the quarterback and if the Bears defense can find a way to apply enough pressure to Flacco so he throws it away too soon or errantly. If it's Browning, then chances of takeaways increase dramatically. He has thrown six interceptions.

It's the Bears and the Bengals in Cincinnati at noon, here's  who wins and why.

Bears running vs. Bengals run defense

Even without injured D'Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson, the Bears should be able to run the ball against a struggling front. Kyle Monangai will run it behind a group of run blockers who have gradually improved through the season. Tackle Darnell Wright and guard Jonah Jackson on the right side should be able to open hole against a Bengals defense giving up yardage in huge chunks on that side. They're allowing 4.6 yards over right guard (21st in the NFL), 7.03 over right tackle (29th) and 6.39 around right end (22nd). Edge to Bears

Bears passing vs. Bengals pass defense

With Trey Hendrickson injured, the Bengals pass rush might come down to blitzing. They're not good enough in back to support this for long. When Caleb Williams goes up against weaker defenses after a few mediocre performances, he's usually good for a bounce back. Think Dallas. The key will be getting a running threat going to start play-action, and finding tight ends against a group of linebackers who have floundered in coverage. Edge to Bears

Bengals running vs. Bears run defense

Cincinnati's running game has opened up the last two weeks but it looks like more a case of the passing game occupying so much attention that they've found it easier to spring Chase Brown, who averages 3.9 yards per carry. They're also getting 6.2 yards from change-of-pace runner Samaje Perine. The Bears run defense kicked into higher gear three games ago but lost a vital part in Shemar Turner. Still, the 177-yard effort by the Ravens was largely because of 53 yards running by QB Tyler Huntley. Flacco and Browning might run for 53 yards too—for the whole season. No edge

Bengals passing vs. Bears pass defense

Even if you buy C.J. Gardner-Johnson as a slot cornerback savior for the Bears after they lost Kyler Gordon to injury, and on only a few days of practice in this scheme, and see Tyrique Stevenson's return as huge, that's Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins on the other side. They've got three good tight end targets, if they want, as well. The Bengals offensive line is middle of the league protecting QBs but that's actually solid considering how often they have to pass because they're trailing. Flacco's arm remains strong enough, and Browning can throw it often but also often to other teams. Edge to Bengals

Special teams

Bengals return man Charlie Jones is a threat on both punts and kicks. Like Devin Duvernay for the Bears, Jones has TDs both on a punt and kick. Neither team covers punts well, giving up over 11 yards per return. As bad as the Bears have been covering kicks at 26.9 yards allowed, the Bengals are 30th at 28 yards allowed per return. Evan McPherson hasn't made one longer than 50 this year for the Bengals and punter Ryan Rehkow has a big leg but Tory Taylor's isn't weak and it's more accurate. No edge

Coaching

Zac Taylor has plenty of successful experience, but it was mostly four or five years ago and it was when he had Joe Burrow, not this current depleted situation. Bengals defensive coordinator Al Golden has experience from college both beating and losing to Caleb Williams. Bears defensive coordinator Dennis Allen should be able to make good use of his new slot cornerback while Ben Johnson's experience preventing a losing streak on the road is tested for a second time. No edge

Intangibles

As high as the Bengals were flying when they beat Pittsburgh for Flacco's first win, they have to be at least as low after blowing a two-touchdown lead against the winless Jets. It's not easy bouncing back from such things, and the Bears know this well from last year's experience with devastating losses. The road has not been kind to Williams with a 3-9 record in starts away from home, and he'll need to step up and prove he can succeed there. No edge

Prediction: Bears 36, Bengals 28

The line is Bears by 2 1/2 and over/under of 50 1/2. Williams is more comfortable in games that get out of control on the scoreboard and this game looks to be over the total, unless the Bears get their running game working like against the Saints.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.