Concerns Over Chicago Bears' Suspected ‘Fall to Earth’ Are Greatly Exaggerated

The Bears had an improbable season for the ages in 2025. There is plenty of reason to believe it was much more of a building block than a flash in the pan.

Jan 18, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson watches game play against the Los Angeles Rams during the second quarter of an NFC Divisional Round game at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | David Banks-Imagn Images

You've heard it all before (and you're certainly going to hear it all offseason). The Bears are destined to fall back down to earth. They're never going to have another season like the one they just had again. The overall consensus is that they were a one-year wonder. A fluke.

From the turnover percentage to the improbable come-from-behind victories, practically everyone thinks Chicago is bound for some regression. While that's fair, and not one bit surprising, it also disregards some of what they put on tape last season. That notion unfairly throws cold water on some of the more sustainable aspects of their improbable run.

Yes, the Bears are going to look much different than they did in 2025. However, there's as much reason to believe they're going to be substantially better as there is for the opposite.

They got the two most important aspects right

Sep 21, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson talks with quarterback Caleb Williams (18) against the Dallas Cowboys during the second half at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | David Banks-Imagn Images

Teams can often survive and tread water as a contender if they have a great coach or QB under center. However, there is usually a ceiling there that doesn't see them achieving the ultimate goal of winning a Super Bowl. While there are certainly outliers (like an otherworldly defense), you often need to hoist the Lombardi when it's all said and done.

Based on year one, it certainly seems like no one is going to have to carry Chicago's QB/HC dynamic. Bears appear to have hit the ball out of the park in those departments. Both Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson looked like they belong in the conversation among the best in the league last season, and there's reason to believe they should be even better now that they have a year together under their belts.

Teams often begin cooking with fire when they get an elite head coach and a great QB working in tandem. While it's obviously too early to put those Johnson and Williams in the same conversation as some of the best, they can definitely reach that status if they do so much as repeat last year's performance in 2026. The future appears very bright with the two of them at the helm.

Their schedule isn't as daunting as it seems

Feb 2, 2026; San Francisco, CA, USA; The NFC logo at the NFL Flag Fieldhouse at Moscone Center South Building. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Another thing you'll hear all offseason is how difficult their schedule will be next year. They have the sixth-hardest strength of schedule entering 2026.

While that isn't an ideal position to be in, it also doesn't paint the whole picture. First off, they play in the NFC North, which just became the third division since 1935 to feature four teams with winning records. They also entered last season tied for the third-most difficult schedule (also partially due to having six games against the division), with only the Giants having a more difficult path. The schedule was then labeled a cakewalk shortly into the season, because no one actually knows how the games will play out.

There is also reason for optimism when it comes to their schedule (which has yet to be announced in full, but we know some important information). They get to host nine home games and will also draw the NFC South next season. While judging a division based on the previous season can be a dangerous game, it's worth noting that they were the only division without a team finishing above .500. Speaking of the NFC South, the Falcons are guaranteed to host a game in Spain, and the Bears are one of only three of their opponents with marketing rights there, with the others being Miami and Kansas City (two teams that were forced to travel overseas last year).

Nine home games and a neutral site against a team that doesn't travel well doesn't sound to me.

They massively improved their speed on defense (and should be healthier)

Apr 23, 2026; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Oregon Ducks defensive back Dillon Thieneman is selected by the Chicago Bears as the number 25 pick during the 2026 NFL Draft at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Everyone talks about their suspected regression in the turnover department. Nobody expects them to survive by the seat of their pants again. They won't get close to double-digit comeback victories in 2026. Yes, their defense was as opportunistic as they come last season. That was where their positives on defense began, and, unfortunately, also where they ended. They gave up the fourth-most yards (and sixth-most rushing yards) in the league.

The regression has been the source of speculation, but I haven't heard anyone entertaining the thought that their defense could be due for some positive regression. They probably won't be down their top two cornerbacks before the season opener (fingers crossed, anyway). They probably won't have five key starters land on injured reserve at different points (and occasionally the same point) in the season. If the defense is better, and the offense is more efficient, then they won't need to rely on last-second victories. Theoretically, they should just be better.

Dec 20, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears cornerback Jaylon Johnson (1) runs onto the field during player introductions before the game against the Green Bay Packers at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | David Banks-Imagn Images

The Bears might not have moved the needle much on the defensive line, but Neville Gallimore is much better than their former backup options at DT (who all left in free agency) at this stage of their respective careers. You obviously don't want to put your chips in on a sixth-round rookie to contribute on the interior, but there's no denying that they got significantly more athletic with the addition of Jordan van den Berg.

The secondary also received the Dennis Allen stamp of approval this offseason. Their safeties got an uptick in speed and a MASSIVE uptick in versatility. He's always preferred safeties who can be interchangeable in the roles they play, and Dillon Thieneman and Coby Bryant can certainly do that. Malik Muhammad could also quickly prove to be an upgrade over what they had in Nahshon Wright, and potentially what they have in Tyrique Stevenson.

It might not look like it much on paper, but the defense got a lot better this offseason. They might not repeat their performance in the takeaway department (historically, no one does when a team has a season like the one they did last year), but they should be better equipped to keep opponents out of the end zone.