Four Reasons Why the Bears Could Have a Disaster Season in 2026

Despite an offseason of hype, the Bears could very well miss the 2026 playoffs entirely.

Chicago Bears DB Coby Bryant runs with the ball during Training Camp. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The 2026 Chicago Bears are not your father's Chicago Bears. For the first time in decades, the Bears are entering a new NFL season with a head coach-quarterback pairing that is expected to take the league by storm. If all goes well, the Bears could very likely fight their way to a Super Bowl berth.

But what if things don't go well? While there are plenty of reasons for Bears fans to believe that the team can win it all in 2026 (and we'll touch on those tomorrow), there are also reasons to doubt. In fact, the Bears could spiral into a disaster season that sees them miss the playoffs by a long shot. That's exactly what happened in one NFL season simulation run by ESPN.

Bears fans may not like to ponder such a bleak future, but if such is the fate for Chicago in 2026, it will likely be due to four anchors that dragged the team down.

1. Secondary Depth

Chicago Bears safety Xavier Woods attempts a tackle in a preseason game. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Bears general manager Ryan Poles chose to totally remake his secondary this offseason, and that gamble may have already backfired. Losing Coby Bryant to a worst-case injury update was a tremendous blow to this defense, and he may not play at all this season. Every cornerback not named Jaylon Johnson is a question mark, and rookie safety Dillon Thieneman had an up-and-down training camp and preseason.

Simply put, Johnson is the only proven commodity in Chicago's secondary at this time. Thieneman may be great, but he's still taking his rookie lumps. The Bears did well to sign veteran DB Xavier Woods, but he's no Bryant. Tyrique Stevenson "won" the CB2 spot mostly by default, and rookie Malik Muhammad may struggle quite a bit.

Taken together, this mix of inexperienced rookies and limited veterans could become little more than a sieve in the passing game.

2. Offensive Line Regression at Center and Left Tackle

Chicago Bears OL Jaren Kump (L) and Garrett Bradbury (R) at Minicamp. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

First things first, Ozzy Trapilo's improbable return from injury deserves a ton of credit. He's worked hard to get back on the field well ahead of schedule, and he could even start as soon as Week 1. However, there remains a very real chance that Trapilo is never quite as dominant as he was in the second half of last year.

On top of that, the Bears have gone from Pro Bowl center Drew Dalman to Garrett Bradbury, who has consistently been one of the lowest-graded centers in the NFL. He's experienced, sure, but it takes more than experience to win football games. Two new weak spots on Chicago's line could have a cascading impact on the rest of the offense, putting a hard ceiling on their potential.

3. A Pass Rush That Still Can't Bring Down the Quarterback

Chicago Bears DE Montez Sweat after a game against the Cincinnati Bengals. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Bears' defensive line was already expected to be their biggest weakness going into 2026, and it only got worse when the Bears traded Gervon Dexter Sr. to the Falcons. Maybe the coaches are telling us the gospel truth when they say that the talent along the defensive line is much deeper than it looks to the outside world, but I'll need to see it first to believe it.

As things look right now, one of the worst pass rush units from the 2025 season will be even less effective in 2026, and this time they won't get bailed out by a league-high 33 takeaways.

4. The NFC North

A locker room exhibit with the helmets and jerseys of each NFC North team. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Perhaps you've heard, but the NFC North is once again expected to be the toughest division in the 2026 NFL season. Even if everything does go well for the Bears, things could also go just as well for the rest of a stacked division. What if Jordan Love and the Packers offense finally go nuclear? What if Kyler Murray sees the same kind of career renaissance in Minnesota that Sam Darnold have? What if the Lions win 15 games again?

The terrifying truth of being an NFC North team is that a double-digit win season may not be enough to earn a playoff spot. The Bears could still be good yet miss the playoffs entirely. And for a team that has spent the offseason raising the bar for themselves, that would be a disastrous conclusion.

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