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How Flawed Projections Short-Change Caleb Williams and Bears Offense

ESPN's fantasy football expert has put the Bears on the down elevator in terms of numbers this season while coach Ben Johnson's past indicates otherwise.
Gene Chamberlain|
Caleb Williams looks for a target against the Lions n the regular-season finale at Soldier Field.
Caleb Williams looks for a target against the Lions n the regular-season finale at Soldier Field. | David Banks-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears


The rosy projection painted often for Caleb Williams and his receivers by Bears fans in Year 2 under Ben Johnson looks somewhat different when viewed through the prism of others.

While Williams might look to many to be a lock to become the first Bears quarterback breaking the 4,000-yard barrier, at least one fantasy football projection has him failing to even hit the yardage total he established last season in his first year under coach Ben Johnson.

The annual Bears ESPN projections by fantasy expert Mike Clay have been released and from looking at it, expectations are for the Bears to take a major step back on offense. No explanation is given. Perhaps it's the tougher schedule. Maybe he expects Johnson to have brain cramps or the offensive line to fall apart.

Either way, an overall gloomy projection is made. with Williams throwing for 3,821 yards and 25 touchdown passes with 10 interceptions. Each number would represent a significant step back from last year. They would be regressing to his rookie year levels. He set the Bears record for passing yards with 3,942 yards and came within two TD passes of Erik Kramer's record of 29 TD passes in Year 2 with a real offense and play caller for the first time.

The same regression is found within the running game forecast for D'Andre Swift at 994 yards following his 1,087-yard season of 2025.

Fantasy owners would do well to take note that receivers will not be regressing with this prediction even if Williams does. Clay has a 1,029-yard season for Rome Odunze on only 59 catches, as he becomes the deep threat. Luther Burden is forecasted for 75 receptions at 937 yards and tight end Colston Loveland would lead the team with 80 catches. He'd gain 897 yards with six touchdowns, two less than leader Odunze.

All of those numbers would represent steps forward for the receiver corps, but that's easy to anticipate because Burden and Loveland were rookies last year who had slow starts. They missed all offseason work with injuries, while Odunze had a broken foot in the season's second half.

An extremely depressing part of this for Bears fans is how little Clay sees coming from rookie third-round receiver Zavion Thomas, veteran tight end Cole Kmet and rookie tight end Sam Roush. He projects three receptions by Roush, a career-low 21 catches for Kmet, and the blazing fast rookie, Thomas, will net only 12 receptions for only 154 yards.

If you'd like an even more gloomy outlook, tack on the statement by Clay's ESPN colleague Bill Barnwell in a ranking of each team's playmaking group. Somehow Barnwell has the Bears regressing to 15th best among play-maker groups when the offense went from last to sixth in 2025, and Johnson has never had an offense ranked lower than sixth.

"Replacing (DJ) Moore and Olamide Zaccheaus with Kalif Raymond and third-round pick Zavion Thomas is a likely step backward," Barnwell wrote.

Clay has Raymond making only 19 catches for 187 yards, or not even 10 yards a reception. That's 20 fewer receptions than Zaccheaus, who infuriated Bears fans with his dropped passes but did make the occasional huge third-down or red zone reception.

Why the prediction is flawed

The Bears' individual projection become difficult when such a huge impact player as Moore is removed. How will this hit the catch totals of other players? Naturally they all should move higher, at least among starters.

Based on what happened in Johnson's second season as Lions offensive coordinator, there should only be progression and not regression for Williams and the passing game. Also, it's Williams first chance to run the same offense in successive years since leaving Lincoln Riley's attack at USC. He finally should know the attack and his receivers well.

The schedule rarely works out how preseason projections anticipate. For instance, in 2024 the Bears were viewed as having one of the easiest schedules in the league and after it ended their actually had the second toughest.

This happens every year with teams. Some improve, others regress. The preseason strength of schedule each year often is worthless.

Individually, it would be easy to see bigger years from Odunze, Loveland, and Burden than even what was viewed by Clay. Odunze's injury essentially wiped out a third of his season after he had started out among league leaders for TD catches. Now in Year 3 working with Williams, he should be expected to make more than 59 receptions. Burden and Loveland didn't even really get going until mid-to-late October last year. With Moore gone, their targets all should pick up.

While their passing yardage and receptions look too low, the rushing totals probably are close to accurate. The split might not be the same as what Clay has but the total team rushing yards should be somewhere around 2,300 as Clay forecasts. The 825 yards by Kyle Monangai represents a step forward in his second year. This could be expected if Swift's total comes down.

The bottom line is Johnson's impact on orchestrating his own offense and his history. Passing production and rushing production all increased in Detroit when he moved from Year 1 to Year 2. He had a veteran QB leading the way, but Williams, as a young passer, only figures to become more accurate in his third season. The third year is also when many players take major steps forward.

If this happens, the entire offense and all the numbers should improve, making Clay's forecast of doom and gloom look inaccurate, silly, or even pure fantasy.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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