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The Natural Blend Combining to Show Bears a Sharper Caleb Williams

It's not one factor or even a few, but a mixture of many ingredients together showing the Chicago Bears and Ben Johnson their QB will be a better passer.
Gene Chamberlain|
Caleb Williams looks upfield during minicamp passing drills.
Caleb Williams looks upfield during minicamp passing drills. | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears


Finding better accuracy for Caleb Williams is the great Bears quest this season in Year 2 under coach Ben Johnson.

This almost goes without saying, except it needs to be said and repeated, and will be repeated often because of how good of how effective a passer he was last year even with a bad completion percentage. No one had a worse completion percentage than his 58.1% and still led their team as full-time starter into the playoffs since Andrew Luck in 2012.

“For me it's just get the completion percentage up," Williams said after minicamp ended. "Keep the offense on the field more, score as many points as possible."

Williams will naturally find his completion percentage getting better if he does those things. Improving through better footwork and timing, also through his much better knowledge of Johnson's offense is possible. Yet. there are many other areas where he can be better at just by doing a few small things better or different.

It's not a matter of one alteration or one statistic. As Williams moves into another year in the offense numerous factors could blend to improve his completion percentage.

"We're continuing to see his evolution as a quarterback," coach Ben Johnson said. "The accuracy continues to improve."

Target the backs more

The biggest way his completion percentage goes up might simply be targeting.

His goal always seems to be the big score downfield when there could be so much to be gained by targeting someone much closer, like a running back. This will no doubt be stressed.

Last year, 15 running backs in the league were targeted more often than D'Andre Swift, who had 48. Yet, only six backs averaged longer gains per catch than Swift's 8.8. Obviously they could use him more in this regard if he's this effective.

There were 42 backs targeted more times than Kyle Monangai (30). He dropped six passes, which is a good reason not to throw more to home. However, Monangai averaged 9.1 yards a catch when he did hold onto it. That's the same average Christian McCaffrey had, a legend as a pass-catching running back.

Obviously throwing shorter passes to backs, who gain decent chunks of yardage, is a way to improve completion percentage. That is, as long as Monangai holds onto the ball..
The problem with throwing short is a QB can become a "checkdown Charlie." They get too dependent on short throws. The Bears shouldn't have to worry about this with Williams. He already has the opposite problem and it's one of the reasons his completion percentage was so low.

Fewer disrupted throws

Desperate times call for desperate measures. Williams led the NFL at throwing away the football. He was apparently protected quite well, as he had only 24 sacks after taking a league-high 68 the previous year. If he's protected well again, Williams shouldn't be throwing the ball away so often and this improves his completion percentage.

He did it last year because he was holding it too long and eventually was pressured. In theory, better knowledge of the offense should let him get rid of the ball faster.

Johnson's offense often will require a quarterback to hang onto the ball longer because of all the play-action throws involved. Jared Goff was never one of the fastest to get rid of the ball under Johnson for this reason. Last season Goff had the eighth-fastest average time to get rid of the ball after Johnson left. Before that he had been in the middle of the league for three years, according to NextGen Stats' time to throw.

Also, Williams had trouble getting the ball batted down last year for incompletions. Williams had 18 passes batted, second behind only Trevor Lawrence. Getting rid of the ball more decisively and through a better passing lane decreases batted throws. If you don't hold it so long that you need to lead the NFL in throwing it away, and also throw it to a back a little more often, then, all of the sudden a 58.1% completion rate gets into the lower 60s at worst.

Altered defenses

Williams probably will need to show more as a passer who can do damage situationally, but based on the second half of last year this already was happening. Fourth-and-8 and then he hits Rome Odunze on the leaping throw. The deadlier he is and more consistent he becomes, the more defenses will back off the pressure and his percentage can rise.

It's easier to have higher completion percentages against zone coverage and four-man pass rushes.

Williams last year was blitzed more times than any quarterback in the league by far. He was blitzed 203 times according to Sumer Sports analytics. Some other analytics have it a little less but they all have him being blitzed an inordinate amount of times.

When blitzed, Williams had a completion percentage (53.4%) better than only two starters in the league: Jayden Daniels (52.4%) and Cameron Ward (48.4%).

However, Williams and Ben Johnson found ways to adjust and eventually he managed to have the fifth-best passing EPA against blitzes in the NFL among starters. Only 14 quarterbacks had better success rates than Williams against the blitz. A successful pass is one gaining at least 40% of what's needed for a first down on first down, 60% on second down and 100% on third or fourth down.

With his success improving at multiple levels, defenses are going to start to back off more. This normally happens when younger quarterbacks mature, anyway. When this happens, the zone coverage should let Williams put up better completion percentages.

The real work

Williams has focused on footwork and getting the ball exactly where it needs to be for receivers to gain after the catch in much of his offseason work at Halas Hall, and on his own.

This can't hurt, and can help lower the amount of "bad throws," Williams has downfield. Last year he had what Stathead/Pro Football Reference called 109 "bad throws." This led the NFL.

It's not that this total is necessarily as bad as it sounds. Matthew Stafford was second with 105 and how bad is he?

It still needs to come down, and his focus on passing fundamentals, particularly within the context of an offense he knows better, can let this naturally to reduce bad throws.

Combine all of these factors — dropped passes, passes intentionally thrown away, shorter targets, different defensive approaches against a more experienced passer, and improved passing fundamentals — and Williams should have no problem boosting his completion percentage.

It might even be enough to let him avoid facing the kind of deficits that casued the need for seven fourth-quarter comebacks last season.

Football could become so much simpler then for him.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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