How the Bears Can Buck Every Trend in 2026 and Get to the Super Bowl

Stop me if you've heard this one before: the Chicago Bears got incredibly lucky in 2025 and will come crashing back to Earth in 2026. It's a popular talking point, and many fans, and some analysts, talk about it like an inevitable outcome. ESPN's Bill Barnwell even put the Bears right at the top of his annual prediction of teams who will decline in the 2026 NFL season.

Barnwell's reasoning for including the Bears is exactly what we've heard all offseason. "If you were drawing a blueprint for a team what was likely to [win fewer games next year]," Barnwell writes, "you would essentially be describing last season's Bears. An unlucky team in 2023 and 2024, the Bears got far more than their fair share of breaks for most of the 2025 season."

Barnwell goes on to support this statement with familiar premises. The Bears can't bet on carrying the league's best turnover margin again. They won't pull off so many comeback wins again. The pass rush unit remains substandard. Barnwell isn't wrong, but none of this is truly relevant to the 2026 Bears. In fact, there's very good reason to believe that not only will the Bears not regress, but they can play their way into the Super Bowl in February.

Luck is in the eye of the beholder

Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams calls the snap count at the line of scrimmage. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

One could say, as Barnwell did, that the Bears got "more than their fair share of breaks" last season, but when you consider the multiple, heartbreaking ways Chicago lost in 2024, one could just as easily say that the Bears were simply getting even. Additionally, the Bears also had their fair share of bad luck. The starting defense was ravaged by injuries throughout the season, starting with Jaylon Johnson in training camp.

Furthermore, the Roman philosopher Seneca once said that luck is where preparation meets opportunity. In past years, the Bears had chance to close out narrow wins, or pull off a comeback win late in the game, and they failed almost every time. Not so in 2025. Why? Because this team is simply better than Bears teams of the past. They're coached better and led by a better quarterback.

You can call it luck, and you're not necessarily wrong. But luck doesn't exist for teams who aren't prepared to seize the moment in the first place. Johnson and Williams are still in Chicago, and likely will be for years to come, and that means that they will continue to get 'lucky' when it matters most.

The Bears plan to win in different ways

Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson looks on during Training Camp. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Much was made of the heart-stopping ways that the Bears managed to win games last year, so much so that they became known as the Cardiac Bears. But Ben Johnson has already ushered out the Cardiac Bears in anticipation of a whole new team in 2026. Johnson knows that a team can't consistently win in that fashion, year over year, and never for a moment has he led anyone to believe that he plans to do it all again in 2026.

To see sustained success, the Bears must build up leads earlier in games and defend them. They have to play more consistently in all four quarters. Johnson knows this, as do the players. 'Consistency' has been the watchword throughout the Bears' training camp for the defense, but it's extended to Williams and the offense, too. Ben Johnson has retained his goal from last year for the passing game to hit a 70% completion rate, even with throwaways included.

As for the Bears' excellent turnover margin last year, you can drop that into this very same category of criticisms. Yes, the Bears will probably be unable to pull off seven fourth-quarter comeback wins again, and yes, that turnover margin will likely shrink considerably. However, the team has no intention to live and die by comeback wins and turnovers again.

This team is being built and conditioned to start fast and keep their foot on the gas. They're going to build early leads and then defend them. As for the defense, they're looking for more consistency. While in 2025 it often seemed that it was 'turnover or touchdown' on every drive, this year we should see the Bears force more punts and field goals. While not as flashy as takeaways, it's more sustainable.

How the Bears can reach the Super Bowl

History is against the Bears, as Barnwell notes, but not only can they buck these trends, they can play their way into the Super Bowl. Remember, last year was Year 1 of Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson working together. It was always going to be a bumpy ride, and yet they still clinched the NFC North championship and even beat the Green Bay Packers in a Wild Card win for the ages.

Based on reports from training camp, Williams has grown by leaps and bounds since this time last year. It stands to reason then that Year 2 of this quarterback-head coach pairing will be electric. This is a team that has the two most important positions filled with top shelf options. That's more than almost any other team in the NFC can say, and that's not even getting into the powerful running game.

If Williams does indeed take that next step forward in 2026, then there's not a single team in the NFC against whom the Bears have no shot. Not even the L.A. Rams. The Rams would deservedly be favored to beat the Bears in the playoffs, as they did last year, but it would not require a miracle for the Bears to win and advance to the Super Bowl.

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