Bears' Caleb Williams Ranked as the Best QB Prospect Since 2021

It took longer than many hoped or expected, but the first overall pick from the 2024 NFL draft is finally living up to his generational billing. Caleb Williams' breakout season in 2025 was an excellent first step towards the superstardom for which he seemed destined before he was drafted, and if he can ever hit the ceiling that was projected for him, then the Chicago Bears will soon find themselves in perennial Super Bowl contention.

But where does Williams rank among other young quarterbacks from recent draft classes? Would he have been selected first overall in the stacked 2021 quarterback class? Would Fernando Mendoza, who followed in Williams' footsteps by deciding not to throw at the Combine, have been selected ahead of Williams in 2024?

Matt Miller, an NFL draft analyst for ESPN, has the answer. On Saturday morning, he published his rankings of all first-round quarterbacks from the 2021 through 2026 NFL draft, and he listed Caleb Williams as the No. 1 quarterback prospect in that timeframe. To be clear, this list is based on pre-draft expectations and is not affected in any way by their actual NFL careers thus far.

Where would Fernando Mendoza rank among QBs drafted in Round 1 over the past five years?

Let's rank every quarterback picked in Round 1 from 2021 to 2025 based on predraft evaluations -- and then slot in the expected No. 1 pick for 2026.https://t.co/qseONzrOCi
— Matt Miller (@nfldraftscout) February 28, 2026

Defending his choice of Williams as the best quarterback prospect in recent years, Miller had this to say: "Potential is a scary word when it comes to prospects, but Williams was (and still is) loaded with it. At 6-foot-1 and 220 pounds, he has excellent arm strength and the ability to create on the move. He's a true playmaker and an artist, winning the Heisman Trophy in 2022, then throwing for 3,633 yards and accounting for 41 total touchdowns for USC in 2023."

Miller goes on to admit that Williams hasn't quite lived up to the predraft hype yet, but is now well on his way after a superb first season under head coach Ben Johnson: "Williams took a leap in 2025 under first-year coach Ben Johnson, throwing for a franchise-record 3,942 passing yards while leading the Bears to the divisional round of the playoffs. There are still accuracy concerns... but he's getting closer to realizing the hype he had entering the NFL."

Caleb William — Matt Marton-Imagn Images

Trevor Lawrence came in at No. 2 behind Williams, and some analysts and fans will no doubt disagree strongly. But when you look back at the predraft hype for each player, it becomes clear that Williams entered the process with higher NFL expectations than Lawrence did. Rick Spielman, a former NFL general manager of the Minnesota Vikings, even said that he'd take Caleb Williams over Peyton Manning.

As a tidbit for those who still care, Justin Fields landed at No. 12 out of 18 total names on Miller's list.

The Bottom Line

As aforementioned, this ranking is based solely on predraft hype, but if Williams' development continues into 2026, then he'll also deserve the No. 1 spot when judging the NFL careers of all these first-round prospects. He's already proven capable of putting on a Superman cape when his team needs him the most, and now he just needs to clean up some of the more mundane facets of quarterbacking. With Ben Johnson as his mentor, I do not doubt that he will.

The Bottom Line

The Bottom Line

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