Bear Digest

DEEP DIVE: Why fixing Caleb Williams' inaccuracy must be top priority for Bears

Over 2,000 air yards from uncatchable passes left on the gridiron last season
Kirsten Tanis|
Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams
Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams | Daniel Bartel-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

With Chicago Bears training camp in full swing, all eyes are on quarterback Caleb Williams and how well he's executing head coach Ben Johnson's new offense.

Johnson is intentionally throwing a lot at Williams at a rapid pace.

  • He's learning a new offensive scheme, installing a complex playbook, and mastering a new pre-snap procedure. Johnson said that the offense is more advanced than what he installed during his first season as Lions' playcaller in 2022.
  • He switched to a left-foot-forward stance, plays under center more, and uses play action at a higher rate.
  • There's also been an extensive focus on improving his footwork and playing on time and in rhythm.

Many of these changes are designed to help Williams improve in the two areas where he struggled most as a rookie: inaccuracy and high pressure-to-sack ratio.

  • Williams scored a 4.6/10.0 on Player Profiler's accuracy metric, which ranked 40th among quarterbacks. (8.0+ is highly accurate and below 7.0 is inaccurate.)
  • Williams' pressure-to-sack ratio was 28.2%, which ranked second highest of 44 quarterbacks per PFF. (Minimum of 20% snaps.)

2024 was a disappointing and tumultuous year for the Bears' offense

Even with these struggles, Williams threw for a franchise-rookie record 3,541 yards, twenty touchdowns and only six interceptions in 2024. This was a notable feat considering that the 5-12 Bears had two head coaches, two play callers, and Williams took a league-high 68 sacks.

Despite Williams' efforts, the Bears' offense scored just 18.2 points per game (28th) and averaged 181.5 passing yards per game (31st).

Many factors contributed to this disappointing production:

  • Poor play calling and perplexing player usage in a disjointed scheme
  • Williams' play and learning curve as a rookie
  • Sloppy execution at times by the offensive unit
  • Highly unstable offensive line that gave up too many pressures and sacks

Putting Williams' inaccuracy and high number of sacks into context

It's important to note two things.

1. While accuracy was a significant issue, it's not as if all of Williams' passes were inaccurate. The post below from Fantasy Points Data on depth-adjusted accuracy adds insightful context.

  • LEFT CHART: While Williams was below the average trend line on depth-adjusted accuracy over expectation, his highly accurate throw rate was nearly 50% in 2024.
  • RIGHT CHART: Williams had a -1.0% depth-adjusted accuracy over expectation in 2024. That ranked 24th of 36 quarterbacks analyzed. Noteworthy starting quarterbacks below him on this measure? C.J. Stroud, Jayden Daniels, Brock Purdy, Patrick Mahomes, Jordan Love and Dak Prescott.

The key takeaway when reconciling Williams' low accuracy score with only a -1.0% depth-adjusted accuracy over expectation is that the overwhelming majority of Williams' passes are either right on the money or uncatchable. He didn't seem to have the same amount of "close enough to catch but not on-the-money throws" that most quarterbacks did in 2024.

2. Williams was not the biggest reason he got sacked 68 times.

  1. The Bears' offensive line had seven different combinations of starters in 2024. The lineup with the most snaps (Jones, Jenkins, Shelton, Pryor, Wright) played together just 34.9% of the time. Of the twelve offensive linemen who took snaps last season, eleven gave up at least one sack.
  2. Williams was the victim of 57 unblocked pressures and 13 unblocked sacks in 2024 (both most in the NFL), according to Next Gen Stats.
  3. Of the 68 sacks taken by Williams, 15.5 are attributed to him per analysis by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr., editor-in-chief of Windy City Gridiron.
  4. Williams also avoided fifty sacks, nearly double that of any other quarterback, as seen in the chart below.

The key takeaway here is that while sacks obviously didn't affect his accuracy, the high amount of pressure and uncertainty from an unstable offensive line on the plays where he wasn't sacked absolutely did.

  • That's exactly why the first thing that general manager Ryan Poles and Johnson did this off-season was trade for and extend All-Pro guard Joe Thuney, trade for and extend former Pro Bowl guard Jonah Jackson, and sign top center free agent Drew Dalman.
  • They followed that by drafting rookie offensive tackle Ozzy Trapilo in the second round, who was deemed the most pro-ready tackle in his class by offensive line expert Brandon Thorn. Trapilo is competing hard to win the starting left tackle position over incumbent Braxton Jones.

Why fixing Williams' accuracy issues must be paramount for Ben Johnson

Improving his accuracy must be the top priority because it affects every passing play.

Reducing his pressure-to-sack ratio is a close second, but Williams will have more assistance there from the significantly upgraded offensive line and a better-designed offense that includes more hot read options and encourages checkdowns.

Johnson's big goal for Williams to complete 70% of his passes in 2025 also keeps both goals front and center. It encourages him to favor what the defense gives him, whether a first read if it's there or a check down when it's a higher percentage outcome that is easier to hit. Throws will come out faster on average, and Williams will be more judicious about when it's best to extend plays in search of the biggest completion.

Inaccurate passes were an issue throughout Williams' rookie year

One of the biggest things that throttled the 2024 offensive output was Williams' inaccuracy on both intermediate and deep passes. Overthrows were a common occurrence. We saw too many passes thrown too high, too wide, or too long for their intended target.

While lots of pressure from a struggling offensive line was definitely a contributing factor to Williams' inaccuracy, that's not the whole story.

Even when kept clean, Williams struggled to hit his target on intermediate and deeper throws. The video below shows the full season of clips where he threw passes 20+ yards or more.

  • Watching for just a few seconds, you are reminded of some of the overthrows we saw in the early part of the season.
  • There are some nice completions interspersed with the overthrows, but the takeaway is that too many passes were off the mark.
  • If you jump toward the end of the video, you can see clips from later in the season. There are still way too many overthrows. His accuracy didn't improve much as the season went on.

Here's the breakdown of Williams' accuracy on passes without pressure by distance and with pressure.

Caleb Williams catchable ball rate by distance and pressure.
Caleb Williams' 2024 catchable ball rate and rank by distance and pressure | Analysis by Jacob Gibbs of CBS Sports using Fantasy Points Data

Certainly, some of this was expected from a rookie quarterback in a new offense. Communication issues and receiver errors also came into play. But the vast majority of the accuracy issues fell on Williams, because it impacted multiple receivers and happened even when kept clean.

Impact to 2024 passing production was significant

The post below from Fantasy Points Data underscores the sizable impact of Williams' inaccuracy. Bears wide receivers Rome Odunze and D.J. Moore ranked first and second on the list of receivers with the most incompletions due to inaccurate throws.

Of the nine receivers who had more than 50% of their air yards deemed uncatchable last season, three were on the Bears. Odunze ranked first, Moore ranked fourth and Keenan Allen sixth.

Added together and adjusted (as the chart above was published with two games left to play), that's over 2,000 uncatchable air yards that Williams threw in 2024 to his top three targets.

Not good.

Huge opportunity to improve accuracy in 2025

But let's flip this and look at the sparkling silver lining:

It is very easy to see that if Williams can improve his accuracy such that only half as many air yards are deemed uncatchable in 2025, that would catapult him well over the elusive 4,000-yard passing mark for the first time in Bears history. And with those increased passing yards will come a lot more points and the ability to win more games.

Five reasons why I feel confident that this is a realistic possibility:

1. Accuracy wasn't a problem for Williams at USC.

In a well-designed offense that better played to his strengths, Williams didn't have the same struggles.

2. Based on what Johnson's seeing from Williams in camp and preseason, he will peel back and right-size the initial offense based on what Williams is doing best.

Plays where Williams has shown to be most accurate and consistently accurate will certainly be a big part of the decisions.

3. Bears have a top-shelf set of weapons, schemed in a Ben Johnson offense.

Collectively, this receiver group is stacked for Williams.

Consider the high true catch rate (total receptions divided by total catchable targets) for the following Bears receivers in 2024:

  • 95.1% for D.J. Moore
  • 91.5% for Rome Odunze
  • 94% for tight end Cole Kmet

On top of that, Williams also has:

  • Two new dynamic and elite weapons in rookie tight end Colston Loveland and rookie wide receiver Luther Burden III
  • Veteran slot receiver Olamide Zaccheaus, who caught the third-most passes on the Commanders last season
  • D'Andre Swift, who is also a very capable pass catcher out of the backfield

And as we've already seen in training camp, Johnson's play design is getting these talented receivers many open looks.

4. Johnson's emphasis on accountability, exacting standards, and practices that maximize reps will greatly improve offensive execution versus a season ago.

Players are demonstrating and being held accountable at a much higher standard this season. Johnson expects a detailed understanding of the playbook and precise execution when running plays. When that doesn't occur, he makes his disappointment clear and even pulls units off the field so others can keep moving and get in the most reps possible.

Reinforcing this high standard will drive much better execution across the entire offensive unit. There will be clearer communication, improved blocking, crisper routes, and better decision making. All of these will help elevate Williams' accuracy.

Williams talked about how accuracy is top of mind for him in a recent interview.

"I've been on myself a little bit more about just being able to, you know, go through the reads and just deliver the guys a good accurate ball." Williams continues, "And that's something that we harp on, it's something that I've been harping on myself about is being able to deliver the best and most accurate ball. First guy's open, take it and let those guys you're talking about, the pick of the litter guys, go make those plays."

5. Ben Johnson believes in Williams' ability to improve his accuracy.

This is perhaps the most important thing to keep in mind. Johnson had many head coaching opportunities during the last three cycles. And he chose to coach in Chicago in large part because of Caleb Williams' talent. He wouldn't have done so if he thought Williams' accuracy couldn't be greatly improved.

It will be a continuous process given the amount of changes Williams is absorbing. It may take time before it clicks on all cylinders. Ups and downs are to be expected.

But while progress is never linear, Johnson shared that he's already seeing it from Williams. And he's emphasized in several press conferences that he's very pleased with the preparation and hard work that Williams is putting in behind the scenes.

I expect that his accuracy will continue to increase throughout August, as Williams and his receivers stack more reps and as Johnson starts whittling down the playbook to what Williams does best.

Ultimately though, the ball is in Williams' throwing hand.

He is far better set up for success in this offense.

He must throw a higher percentage of highly accurate passes and catchable balls to give his very talented receivers more chances to inflict damage, move the chains, and score.

If he can execute according to plan, the Chicago Bears could find themselves by January with a 4,000-yard passer for the first time in franchise history.

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Kirsten Tanis
KIRSTEN TANIS

Kirsten Tanis has been covering the Chicago Bears since 2023 with balanced, insightful and well-researched analysis. A lifelong avid sports fan, she is most passionate about NFL Football and believes flea flickers are underrated. She lives with her husband, 3 kids and cats.

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