Fool's Gold: Bears' Caleb Williams making too many ill-advised throws in Red Zone

As he boastfully proclaimed this week, Caleb Williams "can make any throw."

His latest breath-taking touchdown pass is conjuring comparisons to one of the greatest plays in NFL history.

The Chicago Bears' rising star quarterback certainly has talent and confidence and his team on the verge of the playoffs. But before Superman and his cape get out of control, Williams also needs a caution sign.

MORE: Caleb Williams literally did the impossible on that touchdown pass

The last two weeks, he has completed improbable touchdowns while rolling to his right and displaying incredible arm strength. But is he also taking unnecessary, ill-advised risks in the Red Zone? We get that it depends on your perspective as a glass half-full or half-empty fan.

Call them great throws ... that overcame bad decisions.

Against the Green Bay Packers, Williams threw a dart in the end zone that sailed through the outstretched hands of cornerback Keisean Nixon. Instead of an end-zone interception, it wound up as a 1-yard touchdown to Olamide Zaccheaus.

Caleb Williams' 22-yard TD pass to DJ Moore had a completion probability of 16.1%, the most improbable completion by a @ChicagoBears QB over the last five seasons (since 2021).

🔸 QB Speed: 11.62 mph
🔸 Target Separation: 0.7 yards#CLEvsCHI | #DaBears pic.twitter.com/ScSnMSigJ3
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) December 14, 2025

Similar play in last week's win over the Cleveland Browns, when Williams rolled right and then threw off-balance, against his body, across the field and into the end zone. Two defenders - especially cornerback Tyson Campbell - had a play on the ball, but somehow it snaked its way to receiver DJ Moore for a touchdown.

MORE: Bears playoff chances and NFC seeding dramatically improve after blowout of Browns

According to NextGen Stats, the pass to Zaccheaus had 16.9% likelihood of being completed. Even less - 16.1% - for the throw to Moore. Is Williams good enough to consistently defy the odds? Or will he penchant for throwing passes in the Red Zone with 84% chances of being unsuccessful eventually bite the Bears?

Olamide Zaccheaus’ 1-yard TD catch from Caleb Williams in Bears' loss had completion probability of 16.9%, the most unlikely completion of Williams’ NFL career, per @NextGenStats https://t.co/ij6y5l3wym pic.twitter.com/T0Bt3SoVUr
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) December 8, 2025

Starting this Saturday night in the rematch against the Packers, the games are getting bigger and each pass more important. To be fair, through his first 1,021 NFL passes Williams has thrown 41 touchdowns and only 12 interceptions.

Is the Bears' quarterback pure gold? Or simply Fool's Gold?

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