Bear Digest

One unexpected key to victory for Bears vs Rams in Divisional Round

With all the talk about quarterbacks and the weather, one crucial factor in this game is going overlooked.
Pete Martuneac|
Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears are set to play in their first Divisional round playoff game since the 2010 season, and much of the talk has naturally been about quarterback Caleb Williams and head coach Ben Johnson. That's to be expected, especially after Williams led that unbelievable comeback victory over the Green Bay Packers in the Wild Card round. Both men will play a key role in Sunday night's game against the Los Angeles Rams, but there's a good chance that neither one will be the deciding factor.

The Rams also have a great quarterback who, like Williams, is no stranger to miraculous comeback wins. Their head coach, Sean McVay, is regarded as an offensive guru, much like Ben Johnson. Neither team has a clear advantage at the two most important positions. However, the Bears do possess one distinct advantage that should have Bears fans feeling confident, and it's a group that is often overlooked in the playoffs: special teams.

The Rams' special teams unit has been bad all season, which is why the Rams fired special teams coordinator Chase Blackburn last month. In three of their five losses this year, special teams played a significant role, whether it was due to missed kicks, blocked kicks, or allowing touchdowns on punts and kickoffs. Chicago, on the other hand, has seen its special teams unit win multiple games for them, including two walk-off field goals.

In a game where 'Bear weather' is expected to play a major role, field position is going to come at a premium for both sides, and that's where Chicago can best L.A. But the most important matchup on special teams is where the Bears have the biggest advantage, and that's the kicker.

Soldier Field is a notoriously difficult stadium for kickers, especially when the weather is as foul as it's expected to be at kickoff. This is no problem for Chicago's Cairo Santos, who just last week hit three difficult field goals in similar conditions to keep the Bears within striking distance of Green Bay. However, this could prove to be a nightmare for Rams' kicker Harrison Mevis.

Mevis spent last season with the Birmingham Stallions of the United Football League, where his longest field goal was 52 yards in conditions quiet enough to pass for a library. Since joining the Rams, he has not beaten that mark, nor has he played in anything remotely similar to the environment at Soldier Field. With an arctic wind blowing and the Bears' faithful roaring, it's hard to imagine the Rams feeling confident in their rookie kicker, which could lead to an overly aggressive game plan that gifts the Bears good field position.

Final prediction: Bears win 23-21

Last week, as part of my bold predictions for the Bears-Packers Wild Card showdown, I said that Green Bay's kicker Brandon McManus, who also had almost no experience kicking in Soldier Field, would miss a late field goal that would set up a game-winning drive for Chicago, and that's exactly what happened. I predict the same scenario to unfold this week against the Rams.

Expect the Rams to avoid field goals as much as they can. However, while nursing a one-point lead late in the game, their drive will stall, and they'll be forced to attempt a kick from 40 to 50 yards out. Mevis will miss, and Caleb Williams will drive the Bears down to field goal range, where Santos will deliver and send Chicago to the NFC Championship game.

Cairo Santo
Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

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Pete Martuneac
PETE MARTUNEAC

A former Marine and Purdue Boilermaker, Pete has been covering the Chicago Bears since 2022 as a senior contributor on BearsTalk. He lives with his wife, two kids and loyal dog.

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