Why one analyst predicts Caleb Williams could go nuclear in 2026

While this season hasn’t been perfect for Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams, this year’s NFC North-winning campaign has provd what everyone hoped when the franchise took him first overall last year: the kid is good.

The second-year quarterback will likely break the Bears’ single-season passing yards record set by Erik Kramer (3,838 yards) next week and still has an outside shot at becoming the first Bear to ever throw for 4,000 yards in a season. Williams also already owns Chicago’s two most profilic campaigns ever in terms of total yardage, and he’s only going to get better from here.

NFL Media’s Daniel Jeremiah suggests that things might even get “MVP”-good soon if he keeps on this track.

Following Williams’ monster performance on Sunday Night Football in Chicago’s loss to the San Francisco 49ers, Jeremiah posted a curious stat breakdown of two talented yet still-raw second-year quarterbacks: this year’s version of Williams and 2019 Josh Allen.

Josh Allen yr 2
Comp % 58.8
Total TD 29
INT 9
Total Yd 3,599

Caleb Williams yr 2
Comp % 57.9
Total TD 28
INT 6
Total Yd 4,117

Caleb has a better supporting cast but there are similar signs of future stardom.
— Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks) December 29, 2025

Aside from total yards, which were quite a bit lower for Allen that year due to low passing yardage (3,069), the similarities are somewhat striking.

They have almost identical completion percentages (57.9% for Williams; 58.8% for Allen) and touchdown-to-interception ratios (28-to-6 for Williams; 29-to-9 for Allen), and their teams even had almost the same record through 16 games (11–5 for Williams; 10-6 for Allen) their sophomore seasons after earning five wins as starters their rookie years.

Though Jeremiah notes Williams had a much better supporting cast than Allen did those first two years—Stefon Diggs didn’t come to Buffalo until Allen’s third year—the longtime analyst sees “similar signs of future stardom” ahead for Williams.

Williams, the top pick in 2024 and a Heisman Trophy winner, came into the league as less of a project than Allen, who went seventh overall in the 2018 NFL Draft. But both players had similar struggles early in their careers with accuracy and a need to rely less on their athleticism and more on playing from the pocket.

The signs of Allen turning that around became evident, as they have for Williams, as their second season progressed. Then, as we all know, Allen went nuclear in his third season when Diggs showed up, finishing as the MVP runner-up and kicking off his run as a perennial top-five quarterback in the NFL.

Their situations might not be apples-to-apples, but one can see how Williams’ raw ability as a thrower and his unique escapability compares to that of Allen, as well as the need to harness those skills consistently. Ben Johnson’s tutelage has arguably put Williams ahead of the curve and in position to win a playoff game as a sophomore NFL QB—something Allen was not able to do.

With another full training camp in Johnson’s offense and a largely returning cast of characters around him offensively, the stage might be set for Williams to join fellow 2024 classmate Drake Maye among next year’s MVP contenders.

More Chicago Bears News:

Luther Burden III, Colston Loveland make ESPN’s All-Rookie Team

Dan Orlovksy: Bears have a “championship-caliber offense”

Caleb Williams just put up an MVP-level stat in loss

Luther Burden III injury scare might not have been as bad as it seemed