Bear Digest

Skeptics convinced Bears may lead NFC North but will give it back

Beating Minnesota on the road did little to convince many around the NFL or in Vegas that the Bears are playoff-bound even while they sit alone atop the NFC North.
Gene Chamberlain|
Safety Jonathan Owens and cornerback Nick McCloud (24) revel in the moment after defeating the Minnesota Vikings.
Safety Jonathan Owens and cornerback Nick McCloud (24) revel in the moment after defeating the Minnesota Vikings. | Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

Being a 7-3 team and alone atop the NFC North apparently has done nothing to gain the Bears respect from anyone.

Sunday's comeback win that nearly got away wasn't exactly convincing.

Based on NFL.com's calculations for playoff probability, the Bears wind up eighth best in the NFC and out of the playoffs even if they are currently the third seeds and have seven wins in eight weeks. They Bears have the worst playoff percentage of the top three teams in the NFC North, according to NFL.com thinking.

The Lions have a 75% playoff probability after losing to the Eagles to drop into third in the NFC North at 6-4.

However, the Bears are currently the third seed in the NFC playoffs and division leaders but are given only a 59% playoff probability by NFL.com's guesstimates.

The second-place Packers are seeded sixth right now in the NFC and have a 73% playoff probability by NFL.com's guesstimates.

No other NFC team sitting in the playoffs is given a smaller chance of making the playoffs than the Bears. The NFC-leading Eagles and NFC West-leading Rams are at 99% playoff probability. The fifth-seeded Eagles are 90% playoff probability and the seventh-seeded Rams are at 85% probability.

At least the Bears are given a higher probability than Carolina,  which is at 21% with a 6-5 record.

NFL.com doesn't have a monopoly on playoff guessing and Playoffstatus.com has the Bears with the highest NFC North playoff probability by a small amount. The Bears are at 72% to get in while the Packers are at 63% and Lions 61%.

The Athletic is even less convinced than NFL.com. They have the Bears at less than a 50-50 chance despite a 7-3 record. It's 49%. They also are given only a 15% chance to take the North despite leading it now. They give the Packers a 38% chance to win the division and 77% chance for the playoffs.

Gamblers are no more convinced about the Bears' chances than these popular NFL websites. According to DraftKings, the Bears are +600 to win the division. The Packers are favored at +275 and the Lions are rated a better bet to win than the Bears at +390.

As for just making the playoffs, the Bears are only at -115 with the Lions still a betting favorite at -450 to make the playoffs and the Packers next best at -350. The 49ers are a -800 to make it, so their chances are regarded as better than all the NFC North teams despite being behind the Rams and Seahawks in their own division.

Weighing heavily against the Bears' chances on all of these projections and odds is their remaining schedule. A week ago it was the toughest remaining schedule in the NFL.

It's still No. 1, but after Week 11 games there is good news. Green Bay's remaining schedule is now just as difficult based on winning percentage of opponents. Gren Bay and the Bears both face schedules with winning percentages of .592 by their opponents. Detroit's opponents have a .529 winning percentage.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.