Bear Digest

Picks who would be a reach for Chicago Bears at No. 10 overall

Reaching is a real problem for teams in any draft and sticking to the draft board is always the best policy. Here are players who pose a Bears reach threat.
Gene Chamberlain|
Kelvin Banks throws a block last season for Texas. He's a potential first-rounder but is he good enough to take 10th?
Kelvin Banks throws a block last season for Texas. He's a potential first-rounder but is he good enough to take 10th? | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

Reaching might be the biggest problem teams face in the NFL draft on a year-to-year basis.

Are they taking a particular player too early because they have a need at a position and he's highest rated at his position, though not necessarily highly rated overall on the draft board?

Another way they reach is by taking a player at a particular position because he appears to have a unique skill set, although it might not necessarily be a skill set worth acquiring at that point in a draft. Some positions are more necessary in an offense or defense than others, and if there are players at the more highly valued positions available then a team is better off taking them. An example might be at linebacker. For years, linebackers went early but no longer. They're not valued as much with the passing game now so predominant.

Finally, there is just the classic poor grade. A team takes a player because they have a position need and think they have their answer. This is as much a scouting issue as it is a reach but it is also a reach because ultimately they're taking someone who doesn't fit the spot. An example: Kevin White couldn't play the game at an NFL level and it had nothing to do with his athleticism or his rookie injury, which wasn't serious enough to be classified career-threatening. He couldn't play. Period. And that should have been evident from scouting but Ryan Pace's guys did a terrible job.

In this draft, there could be dangerous reaches facing the Bears.

The Bears draft in a spot where reaches can be a real problem because most analysts see the number of truly elite players, the blue-chippers, lasting only for six to eight picks. The Bears are at 10.

There is the tendency to get caught up in the feeding frenzy, so to speak, and seek out a player at a particular position just because others are being taken at the spot. A player might be graded fairly high but not really high enough.

Here are the most dangerous reaches facing the Bears at No. 10 in Round 1. Some of these are popular choices, but make no mistake. It would be a reach to take them 10th.

1. TE Tyler Warren, Penn State

He's said to have such a great skill set but really it comes down to the fact he catches passes very well and is athletic enough to use as a wildcat quarterback. He can block but no one is wowed by his blocking. He isn't particularly fast.

Is this really enough to take a player at No. 10? He could be a worthwhile weapon, but to take him 10 would be to take him higer than Brock Bowers went (13th).

The biggest problem with Warren is he is a tight end. It's not a position that helps an offense enough to warrant going so early in a draft.

In the last decade, only three tight ends have been chosen in the top 10 of the draft. The Lions took two of them. One was Eric Ebron in 2014 before Ben Johnson was there. He was taken 10th. The other was when Johnson was there but not a coordinator and that was T.J. Hockenson at No. 8 in 2019. The other tight end taken in the top 10 was Atlanta's Kyle Pitts in 2021.

Of the three, only Hockenson has posted numbers worthy of first-round consideration with 382 catches, 4,002 yards and 23 touchdowns.

However, if finding someone to catch touchdown passes and catch passes overall was the goal for the Lions they would have been much better off looking to draft a wide receiver because they passed on Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown, Terry McLaurin and DK Metcalf when they drafted Hockenson. If he was their answer, why was he traded, by the way, after only 3 1/2 seasons? Wide receiver Diontae Johnson even might have been a better option to catch passes in that draft with 28 touchdown catches and 4,738 yards with 424 catches.

If a team was focusing on finding someone to catch passes, they're much better off looking for a wide receiver in Round 1 than a tight end. 

Pitts has 196 catches for 2,651 yards in four years and 10 touchdowns. He's averaging 2.5 TDs, 49 catches and 662 yards a season. Considering Atlanta could have had someone who made eight more touchdown catches for the same amount of time in Round 2—Pat Freiermuth was taken in Round 2 by Pittsburgh—was No. 4 overall for Pitts worthwhile? Of course not.

Cost enters in, as well. Wide receivers are very costly players and any team that can draft a star receiver in the top 10 is getting a player who would cost them a great deal more later in their careers. So they'll get at least five years of high production at lower cost. It's more efficient. A tight end drafted early does not really supply this because not many tight ends ever get wide receiver money.

Then, in this case specifically, the Bears have a tight end who caught passes at a higher rate per target than any tight end in the league last year. Is it so critical to use a top 10 pick for another tight end?

Mel Kiper Jr., Todd McShay and others see Warren going 10th to the Bears. It's a popular pick.

It also might be a popular reach.

2. DE Shemar Stewart, Texas A&M

If the Bears are starting a track and field team, he'd be a No. 1 guy for the decathlon.

They're still in the football business and Stewart's play in college paints him as a younger version of DeMarcus Walker. He stirs things up, gets an occasional tackle but never really produces any bigger sack numbers or big plays. They had him this week for a 30 visit, so maybe they disagree.

Happy reaching.

3. RB Omarion Hampton, North Carolina

Only very special backs get drafted in the top 10. Everyone seems to agree Ashton Jeanty belongs in that group because of his power, ability to shed tackles, cutting ability and potential as a receiver. What are the chances there is another very special back in the same draft?

Hampton has a number of strengths as a runner but the idea he should be taken a few spots after Jeanty seems more like media analysts forcing this situation with mock drafts based on statistics than it actually does teams putting him in the same class.

Even if he is a first-rounder, Hampton looks more like one for the second half of the first round. He'd be a good trade-back alternative, although everyone seems convinced Dallas will take him at 12 because of its desperation for a good running back should Jeanty be gone.

In this draft class, the main reason this would be a reach for teams who have other needs is because the supply of backs is graded so deep by everyone who has looked at it. The same type of player is around in Round 2, Round 3, even into Round 5. It's just that Hampton's exact combination of both speed and power isn't as easy to find after the third round if not the second.

4. DE Mykel Williams, Georgia

While Williams does fit the Dennis Allen edge rush mold and the Bears have a need for another edge, he hasn't had the consistent production to warrant a top 10 pick.

The latest mock draft from The 33rd Team draft analyst Kyle Crabbs has the Bears drafting Williams at No. 10. If they did, it might eventually help more than some other player at another position but it is going to take some time to get him established.

Is developing a pass rusher something they really want in Round 1, at No. 10? That's what you expect from a Day 2 pick. At 10, an edge should be able to come in and be a force.

5. DE Mike Green, Marshall

A few plays at the Senior Bowl are the main reason so many teams are high on him. His college experience is against weaker opposition, for the most part. And then there are the two unsettling situations with the assault reports. He brought them up at the combine, to his credit, and denies them. Can a team really risk something like that and his lack of experience against quality opposition at No. 10?

6. T Kelvin Banks

Banks looks a lot like many of the other tackles in this draft who are later first-round material. Nothing puts his skill set particularly above players like Josh Simmons, Grey Zabel or Josh Conerly Jr. In fact, if I was drafting I would just take Conerly at No. 10 because he is a better pass blocker than Banks and he did it for a team that won the Big Ten title and beat the eventual national champions.

The 10th pick doesn't really look like a place for any of these offensive linemen but if Armand Membou is gone at that point, the Bears would do well to move back a few spots and then take any of them including Banks.

7. TE Colston Loveland, Michigan

There's no reason to think Loveland could ever be a top 10 pick. In part, it's for some of the same reasons Warren shouldn't. But even if they move back, in this case it might even be a reach.

They can get a player who is as fast or faster and can play the U-tight end in Round 2 with Oregon's Terrance Ferguson.

Again, it's tight end. Worry about it later, after a running back, offensive linemen and defensive linemen.

8. CB Jahdea Barron, Texas

A defender with a solid, first-round skill set, just not a 10th pick skill set.

9. CB Will Johnson, Michigan

His inability to get healthy enough to run the 40 and do anything in the run up to the draft is too alarming, and as such he constitutes a reach at No. 10.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.