Bear Digest

The key Week 1 stat showing Bears coach Ben Johnson was wrong

The Bears can break down their defeat any way they want but their coach's new measuring stick for winning and losing in the NFL appears to be broke.
Gene Chamberlain|
Caleb Williams wheels and rolls out of the backfield on a bootleg pass in Monday night's loss.
Caleb Williams wheels and rolls out of the backfield on a bootleg pass in Monday night's loss. | David Banks-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

So much for modern football theory.

When Ben Johnson came to Halas Hall pushing the analytical statistic expected points added, or EPA, as the new determiner of victory in the NFL he gained immediate credibility with the geeks and anyone else tired of the same old thing.

Turnovers would no longer be the best determining factor in wins or losses. Caleb Williams' EPA would be the number to watch. Johnson actually referred to this when he first took over as coach but then explained it further at the NFL owners meetings.

“The way I understand it right now from our analytics team, the EPA in the passing game is really one of the most critical factors in determining wins and losses,” Johnson told reporters at the NFL owners meetings. “That’s probably changed over the last five years or so.

"I would have said five years ago turnovers, takeaways, that was number one. From what I understand now, that EPA for the passing game has now surpassed that.”

After one week, Williams has a -0.39 EPA and that was 19th in the league according to Sumer Sports Analytics. It was the highest negative EPA but still a negative. He was at -0.01 per play, also 19th.

There are different types of EPAs, and for a QB passing EPA is important. Williams' 21-for-35 effort with 210 yards and a TD didn't get close to break even. He was at -7.03, or 25th in the NFL.

So, the analytics crowd wins, right?

Wrong.

While Williams was around the break-even point but below in EPA categories, Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy won the NFL offensive player of the week award by throwing for a paltry 143 yards and completing only 13 passes. He had thrown for 56 yards through three quarters.

But Williams won the EPA battle because he was well ahead of McCarthy.

McCarthy is 27th in the NFL in total EPA (-6.54), 29th in EPA per play (-0.26) and 28th in passing EPA (-10.12) despite winning that weekly NFL award. By the way, how does he win that when Aaron Rodgers threw four touchdown passes and won the game for the Steelers in the last minutes?

He was well below Williams in every single one of those key EPAs and the Bears still lost the game.

As for the old guard analytic of turnovers, well, the Bears should have won the game if that is a tell-all sign of winning and losing because Nahshon Wright had a pick-6 off of McCarthy. And they didn't have an interception in the win.

This would be wrong, as well.

There was no winner in the turnover battle. The Bears turned it over on the game's last play when DJ Moore fumbled and lost the ball on the last-gasp lateral play. It was a 1-1 wash in turnovers. That stat didn't go against the Bears.

Eight of the nine teams on the plus side in turnover margin after the first game had wins in Week 1. Eight of the nine teams on the negative side lost.

By the way, Justin Fields was higher in passing EPA and overall EPA than Aaron Rodgers in Week 1 and still came out the loser, as well.

Never be too fast to tout new analytics over tried-and-true measures is the lesson here.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.