Bear Digest

Why Week 2 praise for Caleb Williams seems slightly exaggerated

Analysis: Ben Johnson had only praise for his QB on Monday but it seemed a case of marginal improvement combined with Bears breakdowns elsewhere.
Gene Chamberlain|
Al-Quadin Muhammad beats Braxton Jones and sacks Bears quarterback Caleb Williams in Sunday's 52-21 Lions win.
Al-Quadin Muhammad beats Braxton Jones and sacks Bears quarterback Caleb Williams in Sunday's 52-21 Lions win. | Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

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It was probably an indictment of the Bears defense but also an indication of Caleb Williams' improvement when it took until the very last question of Monday's press conference for Ben Johnson to be asked about his quarterback.

“I did see significant growth," Johnson said. "It's not perfect yet. There's still a number of plays where our eyes aren't quite in the right position or we're holding onto the ball just a tick longer than what we're coaching.

"But, I did see tremendous growth in terms of going through the progression. There were a few times where we had to get to No. 3 (receiver) or No. 4 in the read, and he was trusting his feet and his footwork and was able to get there. So, I did think he got better from Week 1 to Week 2. I'm encouraged by what I saw, and I'm hopeful that we will continue to see another leap here this week.”

There really was improvement, but not enough to cause anyone to scream "breakthrough."

After all, by Johnson's own pet statistic there wasn't much improvement. In fact, he dropped some in his positioning via key EPA measurements (expected points added). It's probably more accurate to say he stayed about the same because his drop was partly the result of more passers now being tracked after all the injuries to starters last week.

But the analytical people at Sumer Sports have Williams' EPA as worse at -5.0 after it had been -0.39 last week. That and more passers being tracked caused him to fall from 19th to 32nd in EPA. His passing EPA dropped from -7.03 to -7.99 and his ranking went from 25th to 34th.  His -0.06  EPA per play was -0.01 last week and he went from 19th to 34th.

Another way Johnson needs Williams to pick up his game is in yards after the catch. His completions have produced only 150 yards after the catch, which is 26th, and the Lions had been the best in the league at this last year under Johnson's watchful eye.

In fact, Jared Goff remains near the top, in second in YAC following Sunday's rout of the Bears.

If you're not taking Johnson's pet analytical numbers or his past production as  gospel, then there really is reason for optimism.

His Pro Football Focus passing grade is at 21st out of 40 and that's well up the chart. According to Stathead/Pro Football Reference, Williams has a 50% on-target throw rate and that isn't great but is just below the league average of 50.3% and actually is in the top half of the league in 16th.

Still, Williams' bad throw percentage according to PFF is 31st at  15.6%. While this is 31st in the league, he's still ranked better than Drake Maye, Bo Nix and another respected passer named Patrick Mahomes, who is last in the league right now at 20%.

The numbers say what Johnson basically said. It's getting better.

He still has a long way to go in his 20th career start, Sunday at home against Dallas, a little less depending on which analytic website you're reading.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.