Identifying Cincinnati Bengals' Targets at Edge Rusher Ahead of The 2023 NFL Draft

Cincinnati could bolster its' pass rush in this year's draft.

Author:
Mike Santagata
Publish date:
Apr 12, 2023 8:49 AM EDT

In this story:

The Bengals have prioritized size and the ability to stop the run with their defensive front throughout Duke Tobin’s tenure as their Director of Player Personnel.

Rather than getting the edge rusher who oozes potential with tantalizing speed and bend, they go for the guy that will try to run his helmet through the opponent’s chest on every snap.

This fits defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo's philosophy as well.

He prefers his pass rushers to squeeze the pocket and build a cage around the quarterback rather than bending around the outside for a sack. This is to trap mobile quarterbacks to limit improvisation, rather than gaining extra sacks which would give a possible escape route. Using some of their trends on size, athleticism, and college production. We can zero in on likely defensive line targets for them in this draft by looking at a few different metrics.

Using just the first four rounds of their history since 1999, the average edge rusher that the Bengals have drafted comes in at nearly 6-5 (6-4.5) and 267 pounds, which is a big player.

The drills that they seem to really prioritize are the 10-yard split from the 40-yard dash and the vertical jump. Their average EDGE rusher has a 10 yard split in the 82nd percentile and the vertical jump average is in the 84th percentile.

The short shuttle on the other hand appears to be the drill that they are most relaxed with as the average edge rusher has a 48th percentile short shuttle. It’s understandable that they look at the 10-yard split and the vertical jump as explosion numbers which would signify a high level get-off. The short shuttle would measure agility which would signify high level bend. Further showing that the Bengals do not prioritize the ability to bend and work the corner as much as other teams.

Now let’s dig into their history and how it may be predictive for what type of edge rusher they could look for early in the 2023 NFL draft.

The other two areas that I took a look at for the Bengals were age and production. Age didn't remove anyone from the pool of players because Margus Hunt will probably always be older than the group of prospects that will be drafted. To measure production, I took a look at their career sack total and the sacks that they got in their final season. This also didn't remove any players, but it's worth mentioning that the Bengals typically look for a player with at least 14 total sacks and 7.5 sacks in their final season.

Nine different edge prospects were removed because they are lighter than the Bengals have ever drafted at the position. Jordan Willis's 255 pound weight is the slightest the Bengals have ever taken in the draft.

The 40-yard dash time and 3-cone removed two other prospects which left us with just 10 players. Tyree Wilson can safely be removed under the assumption that he will be drafted well before their first round pick.

Just Missed The Cut

Oct 29, 2022; Auburn, Alabama, USA; Auburn Tigers linebacker Derick Hall (29) after the game against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Reed-USA TODAY Sports — John Reed-USA TODAY Sports

Auburn star Derick Hall finished one pound shy of making the list. He weighed in at 254 pounds. He finished above their average in six of the 13 possible metrics, while also coming in older and shorter than they typically draft as well. Byron Young also came in just a little bit too light. He's also short and old for what they typically take at the position as well. Colby Wooden would be an outlier with his 3-cone time. His low production, age, and 10-yard split also would be in the bottom quartile for what they have drafted at the position, but they would not be outliers.

Now let's get to the nine players that the Bengals will likely target at edge rusher:

Myles Murphy

Similar to Wilson, Murphy will most likely be taken before the Bengals pick at 28.

He could fall to Cincinnati at the end of round one. They do have a top 30 meeting scheduled with the former Clemson pass rusher. The Bengals also sent defensive line coach Marion Hobby to his pro day.

Murphy scored above average in seven of the possible criteria chosen for this exercise and only had his vertical jump finish in the bottom quartile. His vertical jump would be the second shortest that they have ever drafted after Frostee Rucker, but only half an inch shorter than Carlos Dunlap.

He’s a long, strong, explosive pass rusher, whose main concern is his ability to bend around the corner. That’s pretty much exactly what the Bengals have drafted in their past and prioritize at the position. If Murphy does somehow fall to pick 28, Cincinnati will likely sprint to the podium.

Lukas Van Ness

Van Ness is another prospect that will most likely be taken before pick 28. He also scored above average on seven of the metrics. He finishes in the first quartile in three of the measurements.

Van Ness would have low numbers for his production, bench press, and vertical jump. His six sacks this past season would tie Will Clarke as the third lowest that the Bengals have ever taken in the draft and his 17 reps on the bench would be the second lowest after Sam Hubbard's 16.

His vertical jump was the exact same as Murphy's. He's another long and strong pass rusher who lacks bend, he fits what the Bengals like more than he may fit other teams. If he is available at 28, he’s most likely the pick, although Murphy passes more of the criteria to be taken in the very miniscule chance that both of them are available in round one.

Felix Anudike-Uzomah

After the two unlikely fallers, we have guys who are projected to go in the second round. The first of those players is Anudike-Uzomah. He performed above average in six of the possible 13 metrics and only finished in the first quartile in his weight.

Anudike-Uzomah scored very similarly to Jordan Willis, who the Bengals took in the third round of the 2017 NFL Draft. Both players are smaller than Cincinnati likes to target, but they also crushed the physical testing portion of the process and are still relatively large. They also weigh the exact same, which is the lightest the Bengals have ever drafted. Anudike-Uzomah is currently projected to go in the middle of the second round and could easily fall to the Bengals pick in round 2 (60th overall).

Keion White

White is older than the Bengals typically look for in their edge rushers and his 10-yard split would be well below average, but he’s very big, long, and strong which they prioritize.

He would be the second oldest player taken at the position after Hunt and his 10-yard split would be tied with Hubbard for the 3rd-slowest mark that the Bengals have drafted at the position. The Georgia Tech product may not be an edge rusher for everyone, but for the Bengals that would be his most likely spot although they may reduce him down to 3-technique on passing downs. He’s another round 2 possibility for the team as that is currently his projected spot.

Isaiah Foskey

Stop me if you’ve read this before, but Foskey is a long, strong edge rusher that lacks bend and flexibility. Foskey scored above average in eight of the possible 13 categories, which is the most among any prospect. The Notre Dame prospect was highly productive, passed every testing number, and measured well above their average in height and arm length.

The only thing that he does not match for the Bengals is his age. It’s extremely likely that Foskey could be the pick in round two. He could be ahead of Anudike-Uzomah and White on the Bengals' board, even though those two are slightly above him in consensus rankings. It’s no surprise that Cincinnati met with Foskey at the combine. He fits exactly what they look for in a pass rusher.

Tuli Tuipulotu

With age and production numbers that will make the team salivate, Tuipulotu is a player that would not surprise at pick 60. He is another one of the consensus round 2 edge rushers that will pique the Bengals' interest.

The main knock for Tuipulotu’s profile is that he didn't do any physical testing and came in slightly lighter than expected. The Bengals typically look for a guy who completes most of his testing for the position, making him the least likely of the round two edge targets.

Even though he didn't do any pre-draft testing, the Bengals have shown interest in him. They met with him at the combine and Anarumo flew all the way out to Los Angeles to watch him at USC’s pro day. He fits the general idea as a Bengals edge prospect, even though his profile is incomplete.

Zach Harrison

Nov 5, 2022; Evanston, Illinois, USA; Northwestern Wildcats quarterback Brendan Sullivan (10) slides down in front of Ohio State Buckeyes defensive end Zach Harrison (9) during the first half of the NCAA football game at Ryan Field. Mandatory Credit: Adam Cairns-The Columbus Dispatch Ncaa Football Ohio State Buckeyes At Northwestern Wildcats — © Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK

Harrison is one of the local players to pass the criteria for a Bengals edge rusher. He is better than average in terms of age and production, while not having any of his testing knock him off of their board.

His short shuttle was the only testing that was in the bottom quartile for what they typically draft. It would be the second longest short shuttle that they have taken after Carl Lawson. With a consensus ranking of 92, it’s only fitting that he would be a target for the Bengals in round three (pick 92).

Isaiah McGuire

If none of the other players fall to the Bengals in the first two days, McGuire would make quite a bit of sense on day three. McGuire has a consensus ranking of 114.8 which would make him a target in the fourth round. The Missouri product is big, long, and young, with high end production numbers. The only criteria that could be a concern for them is his 10-yard split. It would be the third slowest that they have ever drafted.

Yaya Diaby

The lowest of the group by consensus, Diaby passes their marks for length and explosion with flying colors. He’s a tad small and older than they typically draft at the position, but he is one of the only players on the list to score above average for them in the broad jump, vertical jump, 40-yard dash, and 10-yard split. If the Bengals are looking for a guy with a deadly first step who could develop a high end get-off, Diaby is their guy. The Louisville product seems to be a consensus fourth round pick right now and could be in play if the Bengals don't address edge with one of their first three picks.

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