Could Bengals be Latest Team to Reach Super Bowl by Getting Weak NFC South as Crossover Division?

The Cincinnati Bengals are becoming a popular Super Bowl pick due to some big offseason moves and the fact that all 11 starters are returning on offense.

Another reason pundits often point out is that the Bengals have one of the easiest schedules in the league in 2026, based on betting lines for win totals.

The three main prongs for determining the strength of a schedule is how good the other teams within your division are projected to be, what full division in your own conference you face and what full division in the opposite conference you face.

For the Bengals, the latter two this year are the AFC South and the NFC South.

The win total betting lines for those teams are:

AFC South

Texans 9.5

Jaguars 8.5

Colts 7.5

Titans 6.5

NFC South

Buccaneers 8.5

Panthers 7.5

Saints 7.5

Falcons 6.5

Only one of those eight teams is projected to have a winning record.

For the last several years, the NFC South has been a mid- to lower-tier division.

In two of the last four seasons, the division winner had a losing record (Carolina 8-9 last year and Tampa Bay 8-9 in 2022).

And only once in the last eight seasons has the NFC South had multiple teams with double-digit wins.

The AFC North, by contrast, has done it in three of the last four seasons, including 2023 when three teams had at least 10 victories.

X user @ketchams1 – Seth Ketcham – wanted to know how many of the last 10 AFC Super Bowl representatives got there by going through the NFC South.

How many of AFC Super Bowl Teams in the last 10 years have had the NFC South as their crossover matchups?
— Seth Ketcham (@ketchams1) June 11, 2026

2025 Patriots (NFC South)

2024 Chiefs (NFC South)

2023 Chiefs (NFC North)

2022 Chiefs (NFC West)

2021 Bengals (NFC North)

2020 Chiefs (NFC South)

2019 Chiefs (NFC North)

2018 Patriots (NFC North)

2017 Patriots (NFC South)

2016 Patriots (NFC West)

So it’s each of the last two and four of the last 10, tying the NFC South with the NFC North for the most. The NFC West has two and the NFC East has zero.

The last time an AFC team reached the Super Bowl in a season in which the NFC East was the crossover division was 2013 when the Broncos went 4-0 against the Cowboys, Giants, Eagles and Redskins.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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