Jaguars Have Talent, But the Bengals Can Exploit These Holes

In their toughest game of the season so far, the Cincinnati Bengals host the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday for a big cat battle.

I usually go deep into data points and weaknesses of the upcoming opponent and this week will be no different, but before we start, I would be foolish to not recognize now well this Jags team has been playing for the last year.

Now, here's how the Bengals can dismantle them.

First, let's look at the quarterback matchup. Trevor Lawrence has never had success in topping Joe Burrow, but the Bengals have also pulled out two victories with Jake Browning at quarterback.

From an evaluation perspective, Lawrence is dealing right now. From a data perspective, you can get to him and force some throws.

Power of the Blitz

Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Cashius Howell (55) celebrates a sack in the fourth quarter of the NFL Week 2 game between the Houston Texans and the Cincinnati Bengals at Reliant Stadium in Houston on Sunday, Sept. 20, 2026. The Bengals improved to 2-0 on the season with a 20-6 win on the road. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

I, once again, will be asking Al Golden to send the blitz against the opponent.

Trevor Lawrence currently has a 57.5 passer rating when facing the blitz and that ranks 30th in the league. His 5.1 yards per attempt when facing extra rushers ranks Lawrence 28th. The Jags have struggled to pick up the blitz as 53% of them have resulted in pressures. That's the 6th worst rate in the NFL.

Lawrence seems to be taking care of the ball better, but when he's blitzed, he's throwing into tight windows 22% of the time and that's the 6th highest rate for QBs. PFF has Lawrence with 5 “Turnover Worthy Plays” already and that 5.3% rate is the 6th highest in the league.

He's going to give the Bengals defense a couple chances and those opportunities usually happen when he's pressured.

Lawrence has completed just 9-of-27 pressured dropbacks this season with four throwaways, four sacks and a 47.6 PFF grade.

So, how's the Jaguars offensive line?

They're currently 30th in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate and 27th in PFF’s Pass Block Efficiency.

They have a rookie left guard in Emmanuel Pregnon. He's definitely had some very impressive flashes so far, but Pregnon ranks 46th out of 59 guards in PFF’s True Pass Set blocking grade (35.3).

Veteran center Robert Hainsey isn't much better with a 40.2 pass blocking grade in PFF’s True Pass Sets. That's good for 26th amongst centers.

Have you seen that the Jacksonville Jaguars have NEVER won a game when the Over/Under is above 49 points? They're 0-29 in their existence and will have another qualifying game this weekend.

But, I doubt it even gets to 50 combined points. The Jaguars are the slowest pace offense in the entire NFL. They take the most time per snap at 33.1 seconds per play.

The Bengals are 26th at 31.1 seconds per play.

You're going to have to score when you get your chances because possessions and snaps will be limited.

Weaknesses on Defense?

Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter (12) runs on the field before an NFL football matchup at EverBank Stadium on Sunday, Sept. 27, 2026, in Jacksonville, Fla. The Jaguars defeated the Patriots 35-6. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times‑Union] | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

So where can the Bengals attack the Jacksonville defense? In the middle of the field.

The Bengals have the 5th highest rate of throwing into the middle of the field at 26.2% of their attempts. The Jaguars are currently 32nd in EPA allowed (+1.03) over the middle.

The Jaguars don't get tested over the middle often as they like to play a single high safety at the 12th highest rate (39.2%) for defenses.

Where they get tested is on deep balls with that safety in the middle of the field. 16.9% of throws against this Jags defense have gone deep and that's the 3rd highest rate in the league.

Good thing for us is that the Bengals have the highest EPA per play on deep passes (+2.59) this season.

That's largely why the Jaguars defense has allowed an explosive play on 11% of their defensive snaps this season. That's the 6th highest rate for any defense.

The Bengals are hitting explosives on offense at the 9th best rate of 10.3% of the time.

A big part of giving up explosives is because of the Jaguars blitzing and not getting to the QB.

They have generated pressure on just 37.9% of their blitzes this season and that's the 8th lowest rate in the league.

If you're not affecting the quarterback, you're just leaving less defenders in coverage.

The Jaguars are supposed to have a great pass rush. That defensive end duo deserves respect, but they're not winning right now as a unit as they rank 27th in ESPN’s Pass Rush Win Rate.

Both Travon Walker (22nd) and Josh Hines-Allen (23rd) rank in the bottom half of the top 40 pass rushers in PFF’s Pass Rush Win Rate.

On the inside, Arik Armstead and his 4.6% pass rush win rate might finally be aging. He ranks 35th of 38 pass rushing defensive tackles.

His running mate Rule Orhorhoro has an even lower 2.6% pass rush win rate. That ranks 77th of 82 interior defensive linemen.

They rely on stunts to generate pressure, so the Bengals offensive line will need to be ready for that.

If the Bengals give Burrow time, I think they'll attack these outside cornerbacks.

The boundary trio of Travis Hunter, Jarrian Jones and Montaric Brown have been targeted 38 times this season and have allowed 25 catches (66%) for 439 yards. While they've only allowed one touchdown so far, they've been penalized 4 times.

And the Jaguars have their own version of Geno Stone back there with veteran Eric Murray.

Murray has already missed 4 tackles and his 40% missed tackle rate and his 27.5 tackling grade from PFF is, by far, the worst of any starting safety in the league.

They have a solid rotation in the secondary and you don't normally see that, but the Jags will go with a light box and trust their speed on the back half.

Their 49.1% “light box” rate is 8th highest rate in the league and the Bengals are 4th best in EPA per play (+0.41) when facing light boxes.

Other than that, the Jags truly are really good and this week's preparation took me the longest time of any of the Bengals opponents so far.

Keep the game close and make the Jags fight for everything.

At the end of the day and at the end of the game, give me Burrow.

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