FPI Metric Highlights Buffalo Bills' Only Real Competition in AFC

This familiar foe could very well be Buffalo's only obstacle to play in the Super Bowl.

Buffalo Bills running back James Cook breaks free and runs for several yards during the second half of their game against the Baltimore Ravens at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park on Sept. 7, 2025. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

As the Buffalo Bills roll through Organized Team Activities (OTAs), the AFC's other teams are simultaneously preparing to battle for the right to represent the conference in the Super Bowl.

Naturally, ome teams are stronger on paper than others.

After a chaotic offseason that has continued into early June with the trades of Myles Garrett and A.J. Brown, the NFL landscape has become clearer, and ESPN's Football Power Index lists which teams look to be at the top of the crop.

Buffalo is one of the top teams, and only one other AFC team is in the top six, with there being a big disparity between second and third place. It goes to show that the AFC could very well be dominated by two teams.

Where do the Bills rank in ESPN's FPI?

ESPN's Football Power Index is out!

The Rams are No. 1, the Seahawks are No. 4 and the Patriots are...No. 14!

Projections, most likely Super Bowl matchups and more in today's story: https://t.co/a3gvnREcZ3 pic.twitter.com/cUwrQBBGkw

— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) June 3, 2026

Buffalo is ranked second in the league with a 4.0 rating, equivalent to 4 points per game above the average team. Spearheaded by star quarterback Josh Allen and first-year head coach Joe Brady, the Bills appear to be the frontrunners in the AFC.

"Josh Allen is arguably the best quarterback in the league, and Buffalo easily could have made the Super Bowl in recent seasons," Seth Walder wrote.

However, that ranking is 1.6 points below the Los Angeles Rams, who made the big move to acquire Garrett from the Cleveland Browns, who look to be the overwhelming Super Bowl favorites.

For Buffalo to have a shot at possibly overcoming all odds, a familiar foe will stand in their way, as ESPN's FPI has only one AFC team close to Buffalo.

Buffalo's only competition in the AFC?

Ravens and Bills players push each other during first-half action at the divisional game at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park on Jan. 19, 2025. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Baltimore Ravens underwent a coaching change as well in the offseason, replacing John Harbaugh with former Los Angeles Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, and they have their own talent to showcase, including an MVP-winning quarterback like Allen.

"That's the Lamar Jackson effect, and Baltimore should be right back in the contending mix again if head coach Jesse Minter can provide a defensive lift," Walder wrote.

Baltimore was wrecked by injuries early in 2025, including Jackson, which contributed to their 1-5 start. They were able to make it to a win-and-in scenario against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 18, but came up short on a Tyler Loop missed game-winning field goal attempt.

The next-closest team in the AFC, the Chargers, has an FPI rating of 2.6, and the reigning AFC champions, the New England Patriots, are tied for the 13th-highest rating in the league at 1.4. It goes to show that the AFC will likely be run between Buffalo and Baltimore, and it'll be cutthroat between them, especially when they meet at the new Highmark Stadium in Week 8.