Bills' Top Free Agent Signing Labeled 'Likely Bust' Based Upon Track Record

The Buffalo Bills have been trying to find the answer for a few years now.

Last March, the Bills let Von Miller walk and continued their edge rusher experiment by signing Joey Bosa to a one-year contract. While the five-time Pro Bowl selection had a few memorable moments, Bosa faded down the stretch, prompting Buffalo brass to look in another direction this offseason.

In the continuous attempt to upgrade the pass rush, the Bills added the former No. 5 overall draft pick to their defensive front seven. Buffalo signed soon-to-be 30-year-old Bradley Chubb to a three-year contract reportedly worth $43.5 million. It's the largest defensive deal that the Bills have given out since the new league year began.

While there are certainly reasons to be optimistic about Chubb's addition to the defense, Sports Illustrated's Matthew Verderame has classified the move amongst his "Five Likely Busts From 2026 NFL Free Agency."

Nov 9, 2025; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) scrambles against Miami Dolphins linebacker Bradley Chubb (2) | Jeff Romance / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The SI national author critically examined five signings that "could have unfortunate consequences down the line." With the Bills potentially acquiring a "good player being paid as though he’s great," Chubb landed at No. 5 on the list.

Author's argument

"The Bills are taking a calculated risk. They believe Chubb can stay healthy for at least two seasons and give them the postseason pass rush they’ve not had in the Josh Allen era. However, it’s fair to wonder whether Chubb was the best bet to make. ... Chubb has been inactive for 42 games across his eight years in the league.

"If Chubb can stay healthy, a $43.5 million, three-year contract is a reasonable deal by general manager Brandon Beane. But if Chubb is often shelved, Buffalo is now without cap space and in dire need of someone who can win off the edge again." — Matthew Verderame

Signs Chubb won't bust

While Chubb, who was selected two picks prior to Josh Allen in the 2018 NFL Draft, is seemingly making the turn to the back nine of his career, he was nothing short of durable and productive for a bad Miami Dolphins team in 2025.

After a severe knee injury, which included an ACL tear, in the 2023 finale, Chubb finally returned to his prior form this past season. He started all 17 games, playing 72 percent of Miami's defensive snaps. His 8.5 sacks were more than Bills' team leader Greg Rousseau (7.0).

Over his last 33 games for the Dolphins, Chubb accounted for 19.5 sacks, 42 quarterback hits and eight forced fumbles. That level of production would be more than the Bills have gotten from the position any of the past three seasons.

'Five Likely Busts' from MMQB

5 — Bradley Chubb, EDGE (Bills)

4 — Trey Hendrickson, DE (Ravens)

3 — Alec Pierce, WR (Colts)

2 — Wan'Dale Robinson, WR (Titans)

1 — Jaelan Phillips, EDGE (Dolphins)