Mile High Roundtable: Broncos at Raiders | Week 16 | Predictions & Picks
If the 12-game losing streak to the Kansas City Chiefs wasn't bad enough, the Denver Broncos have dropped three in a row to the Las Vegas Raiders. The last Broncos quarterback to beat the Raiders?
Drew Lock.
Coincidentally, Lock will start on Sunday in Las Vegas — his first of the 2021 season. Lock has appeared in three games this year in relief of an injured Teddy Bridgewater but Week 16 will mark the third-year pro's first start of the season.
Will Denver get back to plus-.500 and keep its increasingly dimming playoff hopes alive one more week? Or will Vegas' streak of dominance over the Broncos continue?
Let's go around the table to see how the Mile High Huddle staff sees this one shaking out.
Kenneth Booker (@KennethMHH) 11-3: Both teams come into the weekend desperate for another check in the win column in hopes of staying alive in the playoff hunt. Broncos Country is hoping Lock can come in and deliver a redeeming performance at a crucial time in the season. Lock has shown he has the talent to light up the scoreboard while also displaying a propensity for quarterbacking his team out of a game with erratic decision-making. Denver will need to lean on its explosive backfield and use the play-action to get Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick more involved. If Lock can limit his turnovers to one, I see Denver bringing home a close victory.
Pick: Broncos 24, Raiders 21
James Campbell (@JamesC_MHH) 8-6: In his infamous tirade, Jim Mora said, "Playoffs? Playoffs?! I just hope we can win a game! Another game!" Yet, this could easily be written about the 2021 Broncos, who need to win every remaining game and get help to make the postseason. The Raiders are not a better team than the Broncos, but they have a better quarterback and for all of their faults, they're still playing hard. The fear for the Broncos is the O-line not being able to get push, and not being able to control the game on the ground. The Raiders have a solid run defense per Football Outsiders' DVOA metric. Jerry Jeudy and Sutton need to be more involved in the game against a secondary that isn't strong. On defense, the Broncos need to generate more consistent pressure, play disciplined, and get off the field quickly, as they will need to step up this week. Denver needs a perfect game, and unfortunately, it won't happen.
Pick: Raiders 24, Broncos 10
Keith Cummings (@KeithC_NFL) 5-9: Lock vs. Derek Carr is the big head-to-head battle that will end up deciding this one. It doesn't take an expert gambler to work out that the Raiders' QB is the horse worth backing if you were wagering dollar bills. Both teams are hardly world-beaters but the Broncos' defense will keep them in it until the dam breaks late.
Pick: Raiders 17, Broncos 13
Mike Evans (@MHHEvans) 6-8: Sunday’s contest will pit two wildly inconsistent teams with the same 7-7 record in a must-win game. Both organizations are fighting for the slim hope it'll reach the playoffs. Look for Broncos' offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur to Lock on a short leash in order to get him in rhythm and reduce opportunities for turnovers. The Raiders will counter by having their defensive front create pressure to force Lock into making untimely errors. Vic Fangio has a losing record vs. the Raiders and it only worsens after this week.
Pick: Raiders 23, Broncos 20
Thomas Hall (@ThomasHallNFL) 7-7: The Broncos have been an up and down team all season. It would make sense for them to drop the all-important game against Cincinnati last week only to bounce back and win unexpectedly against the Raiders. The only twist is that a different quarterback is at the helm. Can Lock do enough good to make up for the bad plays he will invariably make in order to secure victory? I think he will and the Broncos will surprise us again with a win.
Pick: Broncos 23, Raiders 13
Zach Hicks (@HicksZach2) 7-7: The Broncos’ season is on life support as they face off against the Raiders. With Lock getting the start, I expect less efficiency but more big plays out of the offense. Ultimately, the Broncos have the defense to shut down the Raiders and the offensive talent to score just enough to win.
Pick: Broncos 17, Raiders 14
Chad Jensen (@ChadNJensen) 8-6: Imagine the ignominy of being swept by a special teams coordinator moonlighting as an interim head coach. That's what fate awaits if the Broncos can't go into Vegas and manufacture a victory. Lock is going to bring a little more juice to what has been a boring and predictable offense but it'll come with some downside risk: namely, turnovers. The kid just can't be trusted not to make at least one boneheaded play per game. Can the Broncos overcome one or two Lock giveaways? This time, the answer is yes as Fangio's defense lights up Carr and the Raiders, picking off three passes en route to Denver's first-ever win at Allegiant Stadium.
Pick: Broncos 20, Raiders 13
Zack Kelberman (@KelbermanNFL) 8-6: To predict the Broncos is to battle your heart and brain. One (brain) says Denver won't overcome the loss of Bridgewater amid a divisional road affair while the other (heart) believes Lock will open up the offense, and the defense will take care of the rest. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Broncos get swept (again) by Vegas, but I'm following the consistently-inconsistent, Orange-and-Blue pattern from this season.
Pick: Broncos 22, Raiders 19
Nick Kendell (@NickKendellMHH) 7-7: The Broncos season is all but over, despite not being mathematically eliminated. Playoffs or not, the Broncos really need to go out and win on Sunday for the sake of pride. Given that Denver is currently riding a three-game losing streak to its biggest rival, and being embarrassed in the last matchup at Mile High, the Broncos cannot afford to get beat up again by these Raiders. Since these two teams last played, the Raiders have been falling apart. Denver, on paper, should win, but it will come down to what version of Lock shows up. Can he simply protect the football and execute the offense? If so, Denver should win. If not, things could get dicey like they did the last time Lock started in Vegas tossing up four interceptions.
Pick: Broncos 27, Raiders 26
Bob Morris (@BobMorrisSports) 7-7: It's easy to think the Broncos can catch the Raiders on a short week, but this team has issues of its own. The Broncos may have to make a change at center, there's no telling how Lock will fare, and the coaching staff isn't making the best decisions. Still, I had projected on Twitter that Denver would beat Detroit, lose to Cincy, beat the Raiders, and lose to the L.A. Chargers, making them 8-8 going into the final game. I went against it in my MHH predictions last week, but I'll stick to my Twitter prediction this time. Still, it's not a glowing endorsement.
Pick: Broncos 20, Raiders 17
Luke Patterson (@LukePattersonLP) 8-6: The Broncos might be mathematically alive in the AFC playoff race but they’re far from being a real contender. Lock will start against a horrid Raiders secondary that gives up yards and big plays. Expect to see some exciting plays negated by turnovers and sacks which are a virtual guarantee with Lock under center. But ultimately, this falls on Fangio. You’re either coaching it or allowing it to happen.
Pick: Raiders 17, Broncos 13
Lance Sanderson (@SandersonMHH) 9-5: Not only does this game make or break the Broncos season, but it could make or break the career path of Lock, who was picked off four times by the Raiders in Week 7 last year. This could determine whether Lock gets another shot at becoming a starter in this league, or it could be the game that proves that what we saw last season is exactly who he is. I'm skeptical, but the Denver defense has been playing incredibly well of late and it has a shot to re-insert itself into the playoff picture this week.
Pick: Broncos 17, Raiders 13
Erick Trickel (@ErickTrickel) 7-7: Starting Lock isn't Denver's ideal scenario, but against a struggling Raiders secondary that's hemorrhaging big plays, it could pay off to help keep the playoff alive. However, the Broncos need him to protect the ball. Denver's O-line also has to keep up its effective run blocking while improving its pass protection which has struggled no matter the QB in recent weeks. If the Broncos' defense can stay strong, not give up big plays, and shut down the opponent as it has to multiple other QBs, Denver has a chance. There will be multiple turnovers in this one from both teams and it ends up a defensive slugfest. A late touchdown gives Denver the win.
Pick: Broncos 16, Raiders 13
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