3 Keys to a Broncos Season-Opening Victory Over Chiefs

The regular season is finally here.

The longest-feeling Denver Broncos offseason in recent memory ends on Monday night, as they travel to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs. The NFL knew what it was doing in scheduling the heavyweight showdown between the two AFC West rivals on the first Monday Night Football showing of the season.

Monday night will mark the long-awaited return of both teams' quarterbacks, as Bo Nix plays his first game since fracturing his ankle in January and Patrick Mahomes comes back from a multi-ligament knee injury suffered in December.

If history is any indication, the third meeting between Nix and Mahomes will be a hard-fought slugfest that likely goes down to the wire. Nix is 3-1 all-time vs. the Chiefs, but Mahomes was absent from two of those victories. Head-to-head, the series is actually tied 1-1 between Nix and Mahomes.

Nix lost to Mahomes at Arrowhead Stadium as a rookie in 2024 by a single score, as Denver's last-second field-goal attempt was blocked by Leo Chenal. When the Broncos rematched the Chiefs late that season, Mahomes didn't play, as the coaches rested him for the playoffs. Nix trounced the backup-led Chiefs.

Last season, Nix vanquished Mahomes in Denver in a 22-19 victory. When it came time for the Broncos to head to Kansas City for a Christmas Day rematch, Mahomes was sidelined with his knee injury.

What will it take for the Broncos to come out on top in Nix's third showdown with Mahomes? Let's break it down with the very first keys to victory article of the Broncos' 2026 season.

It's Mahomes; Act Accordingly

Patrick Mahomes drops back to throw against the Broncos. | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

This may be Mahomes's first game back from his grievous knee injury, but the Broncos have to approach this matchup as the two-time NFL MVP that he is. Based on what Pat Surtain II said last week, the Broncos aren't sleeping on Mahomes.

I would imagine Chiefs fans are a bit anxious about exactly how ready Mahomes truly is, but after missing the playoffs last season, Andy Reid wouldn't risk throwing his franchise quarterback out there if he wasn't ready.

It's a remarkable recovery, all things considered. Mahomes tore the ACL and LCL in his left knee in Week 15, which occurred on December 14, 2025.

Mahomes's return to the field will be exactly nine months after suffering the injury. Rehab and recovery can often take longer after such an injury, but every individual player is different, and advances in modern medical science continue to progress exponentially.

That being said, will Mahomes have the full command and range of motion with his legs? We're fixin' to find out, as Gary Kubiak was fond of saying.

I would imagine the Chiefs will do their best to insulate Mahomes by sticking to the run game and even max protecting at times. Kansas City signed reigning Super Bowl MVP running back Kenneth Walker III in the offseason and drafted Emmett Johnson.

Still, Denver has to approach Mahomes the same way it always has, in terms of respecting the unique threats he poses. He's got that cannon of a right arm, and he's the NFL's best when it comes to making off-schedule plays.

I'll be surprised if we see Mahomes's mobility fully return to form in his first game back, though. Even if his knee is fully recovered, that's only half the battle.

It'll likely take Mahomes's psyche and subconscious time to fully regain trust in his body. But we already know that he's a freakish talent, so it wouldn't be all that shocking to find that he's the exception to this rule of recovery.

Still, the Broncos' mandate will be to keep the pressure on Mahomes while also not allowing him to break containment. Walking that razor's edge is one of the toughest tasks in football, but the Broncos have a good success rate since Vance Joseph returned to Denver as defensive coordinator in 2023.

Mahomes will be looking to get the ball out fast, which means the Broncos' secondary is going to have to turn in an excellent performance in coverage to allow the pass rush time to get home. It's always a delicate balance, and things have to work synergistically in order to get the upper hand on a quarterback of his caliber.

A key matchup to watch will be the Chiefs' left tackle against Nik Bonitto. Signs point to starting left tackle Josh Simmons missing this game, which would vault the undrafted rookie Khalil Benson into the starting lineup to protect Mahomes's blind side.

If Simmons indeed misses this game, Bonitto has to exploit this matchup with Benson. This vulnerability could really cost Mahomes in his comeback, but the Broncos have to make it so.

Start Fast

In his first-ever game at Arrowhead Stadium, Nix and the Broncos' offense started fast, quickly putting 14 points on the board. In that particular Week 10 game in 2024, the Chiefs then adjusted defensively, and Nix and company were shut out the rest of the game.

Nix put together an excellent five-minute drive at the end of the fourth quarter, going 48 yards and consuming all but one second off the clock. Kansas City prevented the Broncos from scoring a touchdown, but Nix drove down to the Chiefs' 17-yard line, setting up a chip-shot attempt for kicker Wil Lutz, but we've already recounted the ensuing snafu.

The Chiefs were able to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat in that one, but even Mahomes knew then that something had changed in Denver. The Broncos hired the right head coach a year prior in Sean Payton, but they had finally found the franchise quarterback that had eluded them since Peyton Manning hung up his cleats.

That game was Nix's only head-to-head start against Mahomes in Kansas City. And there were several lessons to be learned from it, not the least of which was this: starting strong is a must if you're going to beat Mahomes in his house, but you must also deliver a full 60-minute performance.

I'm not saying that Nix needs to throw for 200 yards and three touchdowns in the first half. In fact, he threw zero touchdown passes against the Chiefs in Week 11's win in Denver last year.

As the quarterback, though, Nix has to keep the chains moving on third down, and be excellent in criticial situations, including the red zone. Fortunately, both of those areas are Nix strong suits, but this is his first game back from injury and it's been a long layoff since January 17.

Nix is great at avoiding the negative play, whether it's sacks or turnovers. That, too, will be a must to win at Arrowhead Stadium and become the first Broncos quarterback ever to beat Mahomes in his own house.

New offensive coordinator Davis Webb will be tested early against Steve Spagnuolo, but staying committed to the run game will be key, especially on the road. And when the Chiefs throw various pressure looks at the Broncos, whether it's a run blitz or a pass blitz, Nix and Webb have to make Spagnuolo pay.

That's where Jaylen Waddle comes into the picture. His presence should help take pressure off the run game, especially if Nix can connect with him once or twice early.

Still, Spagnuolo has his signatures, and as Payton himself highlighted on Wednesday, the Chiefs strive to force negative plays with pressure while "keeping a lid" on their coverage. Kansas City's secondary has many moving parts and new elements this year, so expect Webb and Nix to put them to the test.

Starting faster this season has been a priority for Payton and the Broncos' coaching staff. To start fast this season and win through this tough early stretch of the schedule, the Broncos have to hit the ground running offensively.

That puts the onus on Nix. But the Broncos invested in building his arsenal this offseason, and based on what we've seen this summer and what Courtland Sutton said on Wednesday, Nix is ready for it.

Bottle Up Kansas City's Ground Game

Kansas City Chiefs running back Kenneth Walker III (9) runs with the ball. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

It's a rebuilt running back room in Kansas City, and the Chiefs will be looking to get their money's worth out of the $15-million-per-year Walker. I expect to see some heavy personnel usage, with two- and sometimes three-tight-end sets.

If the Chiefs are able to establish the ground attack, they'll look to gash the Broncos' defense with the play-action game. That's where I start getting a little nervous because the Broncos are already aggressive, but Joseph has seen this tendency growing in their opponents' game plans, and he should have some good counterpunches ready to dial up.

Individual discipline will be key, especially among the linebackers and defensive backs. The Broncos must use their eyes, while not allowing the Chiefs to suck them in with play-fakes.

It becomes exceedingly easier to force poor eye discipline in opponents if you can establish the run game. That's why Denver has to be solid against the run.

The Broncos let John Franklin-Myers depart in free agency, and while the 7.5 sacks he notched last year went with him out the door, so too did his lackluster run defense. Malcolm Roach is poised to start in Franklin-Myers's old spot on the defensive line, and he is a vastly superior run defender.

Behind Roach, Eyioma Uwazurike will be rotating in, too, and he's also a more reliable run defender than JFM was. This portends well for the Broncos' imperative of stopping the run in Kansas City, but Nik Bonitto and the edge defenders must set the edge, and the linebackers can't miss tackles.

That's the thing about beating a team like the Chiefs: there's very little room for error, and everyone has to bring their A-game. Fortunately, that's not news to the Broncos. Payton and Joseph are well aware of what it takes to vanquish Reid and Spagnuolo.

The Broncos had better get used to executing in the margins because the Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Chargers, and Seattle Seahawks will follow successively after this trip to Kansas City. There will be no rest for the weary if the Broncos hope to weather this initial schedule and repeat as AFC West champions.

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