Ben Powers Isn't Broncos' Biggest OL Problem, But He Could Pay the Price

With the Denver Broncos on bye, head coach Sean Payton appeared on The Herd on Wednesday.

Among other things, Payton expressed his dissatisfaction with the Broncos' blocking up front and hinted at potential personnel changes during the bye.

Looking at the Broncos' offensive line this season, it obviously hasn't been good enough. The unit could do with a shakeup, given that the Broncos still rank in the bottom 10 in rushing.

Not everyone on the unit is playing poorly, as left tackle Garett Bolles and right guard Quinn Meinerz have been among the NFL's best at their respective positions. You'd hope that would be the case, though, given that they're both first-team All-Pros.

The True Culprit(s)

That leaves left guard Ben Powers, center Luke Wattenberg, and right tackle Mike McGlinchey as the options to consider benching over the bye. Of those three, none has drawn as much vitriol from fans and some Broncos media members as Powers has, but it's not deserved — not fully, at least.

This isn’t to say Powers has played particularly well, but he hasn’t been the biggest culprit behind the O-line's failure to launch. That would be McGlinchey, followed by Wattenberg, then Powers.

Before getting into the data, there's an argument that Powers makes the most sense to bench because of extenuating circumstances. Of the three, he's the only one in the final year of his contract.

Denver also has better options to replace Powers, making him easier to bench than McGlinchey or Wattenberg, especially factoring in their respective contracts.

Options: Potential O-Line Shuffling

Behind Powers is Kage Casey, whom the Broncos drafted this past April to be their starting left guard in 2027, and they seemed pleased with his development in practice this past summer. The Broncos could decide to make the switch, see if Casey can handle it, and get answers for next year, though that could be tough to balance with their Super Bowl aspirations if it doesn't go swimmingly.

The Broncos also have Alex Palczewski, their sixth offensive lineman, who stepped in for an injured Powers at left guard for much of last season. While fans seemed to love Palczewski, he was vastly overrated and finished the season among the bottom 10 worst guards in nearly every offensive-line metric.

Also, Palczewski has performed better on the right side than on the left. Keep in mind that he currently fills the sixth O-line spot, which means that moving him into the starting lineup at left guard would mean replacing two players in the team's top six.

If it wasn’t for McGlinchey’s contract, or if Denver wasn’t afraid to bench him and could break free of the sunk-cost fallacy, Palczewski at right tackle would make sense. It would be better than Matt Peart or Frank Crum at right tackle (if Crum comes off injured reserve). Denver could consider benching McGlinchey and putting Casey at right tackle, too, though it would be extremely unlikely.

However, regardless of who replaced him, the first obstacle to benching McGlinchey would be overcoming the sunk-cost fallacy, believing that because he has one of the highest cap hits on the team, he should be on the field. His play has not been anywhere close to commensurate with his contract.

As for Wattenberg, the Broncos just gave him a four-year, $48 million extension a year ago, and are likely stuck with him through the 2027 season. The team could view Alex Forsyth — who's in the last year of his deal — as an upgrade in run blocking, but his pass protection has been a massive downgrade whenever he's been called upon.

Benching Powers: the Film & the Data

Ben Powers. — Ben Powers pass blocks. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

After going over the tape again, Powers gets a lot more hate than he deserves. Is he great? No. He's an average player playing at an average level, while Wattenberg and McGlinchey are playing among the worst at their positions in the NFL.

This season, Powers has allowed a 2.7% blown-block rate with 14 blown blocks, while McGlinchey is at 18 blown blocks and a 3.5% blown-block rate, and Wattenberg is at eight blown blocks and a 1.6% blown-block rate, though Wattenberg has faced nearly 1/8th of the one-on-one blocks that Powers and McGlinchey have.

Digging deeper into run-game-specific metrics, since the Broncos' lack of a ground attack has become such an issue, Powers has just four blown blocks, as does McGlinchey, while Wattenberg has five. That means 10 of Powers's blown blocks have been in the passing game, compared to 14 from McGlinchey and three from Wattenberg. Remember, again, though, Wattenberg is rarely asked to block one-on-one, which is important context.

In other run-game metrics, like yards before contact, with each player as the lead blocker, and forced bounces allowed (where the lineman doesn't clear the lane and the back is forced to bounce to another hole), Powers ranks among the top 20 guards in the NFL in each category.

At the same time, Wattenberg ranks in the bottom six, with McGlinchey in the bottom eight in both categories. Again, Powers hasn’t been great, but he's not the worst player on the O-line. Sorry, Broncos fans.

There is even an adjustment for the quality of defensive linemen faced, and the Broncos have gone against some serious talent this season. With those adjustments, Powers ranks higher than he does without them, while McGlinchey is the same, and Wattenberg is actually worse.

While I haven't gotten into it much, Powers is also dealing with a Lisfranc injury he suffered against the Jacksonville Jaguars last season, which required offseason surgery. For offensive linemen, returning to normal play after an injury takes about 11 months, and Powers had surgery in February or March, but he doesn't get the same benefit of the doubt that other Broncos do.

The Takeaway

So, one last time, I ask: does Powers deserve to be benched?

The answer is no, but Powers is the most likely option to bench because of the Broncos' lack of reliable depth at the other positions and because sitting him down wouldn't force the team to confront the sunk-cost fallacy, as it would with Wattenberg or McGlinchey.

There are risks to benching Powers, as chemistry and communication are vital on the offensive line, but the Broncos' starting five hasn't been good enough, so we could see changes, whether they're fair and just to the individual or not.

After this season, the Broncos should strongly consider finding three new starters and significantly upgrading their O-line depth.

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