2026 NFL Midseason Report: First-Half Surprises, Second-Half Storylines and Super Bowl Picks

We’ve arrived at the midpoint of the 2026 NFL season. Some of the usual suspects have found their way to the top of the standings, while others have plummeted amid disappointing years. New stars and contenders have risen up, but most of what will be remembered from this season will be decided in the second half and once we get into the playoffs.

This is a great time to take stock of the first nine weeks and what’s to come. We’ve already dished out midseason grades for every team in the AFC and NFC. Now, we’ll have our writers and editors all pick out one first-half surprise, an intriguing second-half storyline and an updated Super Bowl LXI prediction.

Here’s who we have participating below:

First-half surprises

Albert Breer: The Browns’ growth around Todd Monken

The reality is that if Cleveland hadn’t hired Monken, he wasn’t becoming a head coach in 2026 (he’d likely have wound up the Giants’ offensive coordinator), and it’s hard to say if he’d ever get that shot at the NFL level. He’s 60. He was part of a staff that got fired in Baltimore. To many, Cleveland choosing him over youthful Jaguars OC Grant Udinski and Rams OC Nathan Scheelhaase, as well as ex-head coaches Anthony Lynn and in-house candidate Jim Schwartz, was a stunner. Yet, months later, during training camp, there was a rhythm and a vibe to how Monken’s Browns were moving that was unmistakable. And that energy has carried into the season. The past two draft classes—filled with talents like Mason Graham, Carson Schwesinger, Quinshon Judkins, Dylan Sampson, Harold Fannin Jr., Spencer Fano, KC Concepcion, Denzel Boston, Austin Barber and Emmanuel McNeil-Warren—are developing. Add Jared Verse to that and a pretty nice nucleus is now in place, with the draft capital from the Myles Garrett trade still to come (a first this year, a 2028 second and a 2029 third). The future is suddenly very bright, and Monken and his staff are central to how all those guys that GM Andrew Berry drafted have come along. Now, if they can get the long-term picture at quarterback sorted out …

Conor Orr: John Harbaugh’s impact on the Giants

I think Harbaugh taking over the Giants and making them immediately relevant despite plugging in a backup quarterback (multiple backup quarterbacks!) is one of the stories of the early season. I don’t know that I was unfair to Harbaugh in my initial head coaching hire grades but I reserved the right to be suspicious of a longtime special teams coordinator working magic with two franchises, especially one in as dire shape as the Giants were.

I think it’s incredible what a little professionalism can do. The Giants pivoted from Tom Coughlin to Ben McAdoo, Pat Shumur, Joe Judge and Brian Daboll before taking the private jet to Baltimore and refusing to let Harbaugh sign anywhere else, and it shows. Career malcontents have either been traded or benched. A rotating carousel of Jameis Winston and J.J. McCarthy is winning games. And Dennard Wilson and Matt Nagy, who were some of the more vilified coordinators in the NFL in recent years, are both performing masterfully. It matters to have good football in New York.

Gilberto Manzano: The Rams never turned into a superteam

The Rams have been playing catch-up ever since making the strange decision to arrive in Australia 36 hours before facing the 49ers. Not believing in time zones played a role in why we never saw the Rams morph into a superteam in the first half of the season.

Myles Garrett had knee surgery after the embarrassing Week 1 loss (it’s unknown whether he actually got hurt in Australia) and missed seven games before his dominant three-sack performance against the Commanders on Sunday. The injury waves didn’t let up after the zombie walk Down Under, including season-ending injuries to cornerback Jaylen Watson and defensive tackles Poona Ford and Kobie Turner. Wide receiver Davante Adams and tight end Terrance Ferguson have also missed time and might not be close to returning to the field.

But the setbacks didn’t just come in the form of injuries. The Rams blew a second-half double-digit lead in Denver in Week 3, had special teams miscues in a Week 5 overtime loss against the Bills and endured a dreadful home defeat to the struggling Cardinals in Week 6.

However, the Rams have dug themselves out of their sizable hole, as they head into the second half of the season with a three-game winning streak and a 5–4 record. They probably won’t ever be super, but they’ll likely be in the mix come January—if the injuries stop hitting the super players.

Matt Verderame: How bad Houston’s defense has been

Going into the season, the thought in Houston was simple: If C.J. Stroud can play well, the Texans have a Super Bowl–caliber roster led by a great defense.

Through the midseason point, that hasn’t been the case. Stroud has been excellent, throwing for 2,251 yards with 16 touchdowns and only two interceptions, despite being without any top-tier weapons save for receiver Nico Collins. However, the defense has been a disaster relative to its standards, ranking 19th overall and 18th in points permitted per game.

At 3–5, the Texans aren’t completely out of the playoff picture but will need to almost run the table going forward, with maybe one or two losses to spare. It won’t be easy for Houston, which still has games remaining against the Jaguars, Steelers and Packers, among others.

On an individual basis, the performances have been uninspiring. Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter have been terrific, combining for 13.5 sacks. However, they’ve gotten very little help around them. The rest of the team has just 15.5 sacks, while the secondary has three interceptions, including zero from Kamari Lassiter and one (this past week) from Derek Stingley Jr.

Overall, the Texans have allowed at least 27 points in four games, including three times at home and one abroad in London. If things don’t change in a hurry, Houston will likely miss the playoffs for the first time since DeMeco Ryans took over as coach prior to the 2023 season.

Justin Herbert is sacked by Jadeveon Clowney — No team has been more disappointing this season than the winless Chargers. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

John Pluym: The Chargers’ 0–8 start

Nobody saw this coming from the Chargers, especially after coach Jim Harbaugh hired former Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel as his offensive coordinator. L.A.’s first-half struggles are the biggest story of the season so far. Justin Herbert’s struggles under McDaniel have been surprising to say the least. Herbert has been absolutely brutal, throwing six touchdowns and a league-worst 11 interceptions. Herbert’s regular-season performance has been similar to what he’s done in the playoffs, where he’s 0–3. The only question remaining for Harbaugh & Co.? Will Harbaugh keep his job if the Chargers continue their decline? He’s taken L.A. to the playoffs two consecutive seasons. However, a year like this one could cost him his job. If he keeps it, he’ll have to decide whether to keep McDaniel. And if the franchise ends up with the top pick in the 2027 NFL draft, they’ll have to choose a quarterback or a wide receiver. There’s no doubt that Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith is the best player in the draft. But several quarterbacks are also worth considering, including Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker and Miami’s Darian Mensah.

Mitch Goldich: Tanking has not taken off

Coming into the year, many of us expected the race to the bottom of the standings to be just as hard-fought as the race to the top. With a 2027 draft class that was thought to be loaded, particularly at quarterback, the season had a chance to be marred by teams positioning themselves to go get their quarterbacks for the future—not just to the usual degree, but to a point that it could become embarrassing for the league. Instead nothing unusual has happened. This may partly be a function of those college quarterbacks mostly underperforming this season and bringing the level of hype down a few octaves.

The No. 1 pick currently belongs to the Chargers, who thought they’d be a playoff team. The Eagles are unexpectedly in position for a top-five pick. The Colts have no reason to tank because they owe their first-round pick to the Jets, they’ve just been that bad. But the Titans and Dolphins have both gotten a win and been competitive in other games. The Cardinals were thought to be a contender for the No. 1 pick, but have won three times. If anyone told those three newly hired coaches to go on a lengthy losing streak, they didn’t get the memo.

Maybe the second half of the season will be different, but the expected race to the bottom just hasn’t taken off. To be clear, I am not complaining.

Mike Kadlick: Jordan Love’s ascension into the MVP conversation

While it’s not necessarily a surprise, the turnaround Jordan Love is leading in Green Bay has been pretty remarkable to watch. After a 1–2 start that saw the Packers seemingly hit rock bottom with a 35–14 loss to the Falcons in prime time, the club has since won five of six games—and has done so behind some elite play from its quarterback. Since early October, Green Bay is averaging 26.6 points per game while Love has accounted for 15 touchdowns and turned the ball over just four times in that span. His magnum opus, at least to date, came in Week 9, when he guided the Packers to a 45–27 win over the Patriots by completing 79.3% of his passes for 372 yards and three touchdowns. Love also added a fourth score on the ground and posted a career high in passer rating (153.2) and a season high in yards per attempt (12.8).

Love currently holds the fourth-shortest odds to win the NFL’s MVP award, according to DraftKings Sportsbook, sitting behind fellow quarterbacks Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Brock Purdy. Should he continue to play at the level he has over the past month and a half, the 28-year-old could very well find himself dubbed the de facto league’s best player by season’s end.

Eva Geitheim: How bad the Eagles have been

Since Nick Sirianni was hired as the Eagles’ coach in 2021, Philadelphia has made the playoffs in every season. That is, most likely, until this year. The Eagles’ 2–7 start is bound to prevent them from making their sixth consecutive postseason appearance—even in a weak year for the NFC East.

Even in the Eagles’ prior “collapses” under Sirianni, they still made the playoffs and lost in the wild-card round. This year, the team fell apart quickly after a 2–0 start, losing seven consecutive games as injuries derailed the season. Saquon Barkley, Landon Dickerson, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert are among the players that have missed time with injury. Starting quarterback Jalen Hurts will miss the remainder of the season due to blood clots in his lung. On top of this, longtime right tackle Lane Johnson retired in October.

The Eagles did appear to be in some form of a transition this offseason by bringing in a new offensive scheme under Sean Mannion and trading A.J. Brown. They now appear to be bracing for an even greater transition ahead after trading players such as Cam Jurgens and Jordan Davis while continuing to build up draft capital. There are few people that can be trusted more in a rebuild than Howie Roseman, but it’s still a surprise to see the Eagles at the bottom of their division and heading toward a top-10 draft pick, not a postseason berth.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba runs for a big gain against the Patriots. — Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the defending champs are currently on the outside of a crowded NFC playoff picture. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Second-half stories to watch

Albert Breer: The NFC playoff race

The NFC playoff race should be incredible. If you assume the NFC East and South divisions will only get their champions in, that leaves five postseason spots for the the eight teams in the North and West. And while I do respect the job Mike LaFleur’s doing in Arizona, and think there’s a lot of promise there, if we eliminate the Cardinals from the conversation for now, you have seven teams fighting for five places at the playoff table: the Bears, Lions, Vikings, Packers, 49ers, Seahawks and Rams. So two of those seven very good teams will be sitting at home when the postseason begins. Will the Vikings’ quarterback issues catch up with them? Will the Packers, Bears and Lions be good enough on defense? Can guys returning from injuries like Micah Parsons, Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph, or a new acquisition like Jeffery Simmons be the difference-maker in that equation? Will the Niners’ age across the roster catch up with them over time? Can Sam Darnold get hot, and the Seahawks’ run game get rolling in their run to repeat? Will the Rams’ stars get and stay healthy enough to fulfill their superteam potential? All those questions are fair ones. And I think because of the level of competition that’ll brew within the group, there’s a good chance the Super Bowl champion will come from that pool of teams.

Conor Orr: How the Chargers close out their lost season

How long will the Chargers just let this irreparably broken season play out without risking damage to the team long term? It’s difficult to imagine the Spanos family swallowing the final years of Jim Harbaugh’s massive contract but maybe, just maybe, if Shane Steichen becomes available that would either force a decision at the head coaching spot or the offensive coordinator position, with Steichen a candidate to elevate if and when Harbaugh is ousted. Steichen was with the Chargers from 2011 to ’20, including one season as rookie Justin Herbert’s offensive coordinator.

The Herbert evaluation is going to be a massive undertaking for the Chargers. If I were them, I would hire a former quarterback expert/NFL head coach and pay that person $500,000 to sift through every single snap Herbert has ever taken in the NFL. In addition, I would want that person to sit in the facility as a bystander and figure out what Herbert is or is not doing that caused this incredible fall from grace.

Gilberto Manzano: Will 49ers be healthy enough to get the No. 1 seed?

The 49ers probably don’t want to hear about all the Rams’ injuries. The injury waves have been crashing on them since the summer. Actually, for a few years now, which is why many are quick to blame the injuries on the electrical substation that resides next to the 49ers’ practice field.

Maybe there’s some truth to all the conspiracy theories, who the heck knows? (Well, besides all the scientists who have debunked it.) Anyway, the point is that injuries continue to come for the 49ers and that makes it very difficult to trust them as a Super Bowl contender. At the same time, San Francisco possesses a 7–1 record and sits in an ideal position to claim the No. 1 seed.

All of the injuries haven’t hampered the 49ers much up to this point. They’re explosive on offense and physical on defense. Also, Nick Bosa returned to the field in Sunday’s win against the Raiders after being sidelined four games.

However, San Francisco is going to need its receiving group to get healthy in order to clinch the No. 1 seed and go far in the postseason. Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel Sr., Christian Kirk and rookie De’Zhaun Stribling were all unavailable in Week 9. (Brandon Aiyuk is available, but the team doesn’t want him in the building). The 49ers are going to need more offensive firepower with a grueling remaining schedule, which includes matchups against the Vikings, Seahawks, Giants, Rams and Chiefs.

Matt Verderame: Can the Bills finally get the AFC’s top seed?

Tom Brady won six Super Bowls with the Patriots, and never did so while having to play in the wild-card round. Patrick Mahomes has reached five Super Bowls, and only once did he need to play three playoff games to get there. Josh Allen has reached the postseason in seven consecutive years, and he’s always had to take the longest possible road.

This year, the Bills are 7–1 and have the AFC’s best record. Buffalo has not had the conference’s top seed since 1993, also the last time the franchise reached the Super Bowl. Looking forward, Allen and the Bills have a tough schedule with remaining road games against the Patriots, Packers and Broncos, along with home dates facing the Chiefs and Bears.

Still, this is perhaps Buffalo’s best chance in Allen’s career to not only win the AFC East again, but to also have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. As importantly, the Bills would only need to win two games to reach Super Sunday, forcing the likes of Mahomes and others to come into their building against a well-rested team.

The biggest competition for Buffalo might be the Jaguars, who have banked six wins and face a far easier schedule on paper, with the Steelers, Giants and Bears being their opponents with records above .500.

J.J. McCarthy holds the ball in the pocket for the Giants. — J.J. McCarthy has played confidently since taking over in New York. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

John Pluym: Can J.J. McCarthy lead the Giants to the playoffs?

I grew up in Minnesota during the best era of Vikings football with Fran Tarkenton, Chuck Foreman, Alan Page and many other greats. But since Tarkenton broke Johnny Unitas’s records, the Vikings haven’t had a legitimate franchise quarterback. It’s been very frustrating watching musical chairs at quarterback since Tarkenton retired after the 1978 season. They drafted a few quarterbacks in the first round, including Tommy Kramer, Daunte Culpepper, Christian Ponder and J.J. McCarthy.

In 2024, I thought the suffering was finally over at the position when McCarthy was selected with the No. 10 pick, the highest the franchise had ever picked a QB. But after a meniscus injury sidelined him his rookie year, and more injuries and inconsistent play in his second season, the Vikings gave up and shipped him to the Giants. Now McCarthy plays for a franchise that believes in him, while Minnesota is stuck with Kyler Murray and Carson Wentz. And after watching McCarthy play a few quarters for the Giants, I’m convinced the Harbaugh brothers know way more about playing quarterback than anyone in Minnesota these days. In fact, I’d love to see McCarthy lead the Giants to the playoffs. And you can bet every Vikings fan around the country wouldn’t want to see McCarthy play against his former team in the postseason.

Mitch Goldich: Can the Jaguars do the damn thing

I was interested in Jacksonville even before the team made waves by importing three defensive players ahead of the deadline. It’s just a fun team, and I’ve enjoyed the energy around them since Liam Coen arrived. The Jaguars won their final eight games last season, but were overshadowed by the runs the Seahawks and Patriots went on. (A heartbreaker against the Bills in the wild-card round didn’t help in the attention department.) Most people spent the summer talking up the Texans in the AFC South, including, ahem, one particular magazine that put Houston on the cover of its season preview issue.

Now the Jags have a 6–2 record with the easiest remaining schedule in the league and get to stay on this continent for the rest of the season. They have been blowing teams out, and Trevor Lawrence might be the MVP frontrunner if he was forced to play 60 minutes every week instead of taking a seat and hitting pause on his stats when the team goes up three scores.

This is a franchise that has never reached the Super Bowl, let alone won it. Good for them, going all in to try to win it all, and I’m excited to see how it plays out.

Mike Kadlick: Who will win the NFC South?

The Buccaneers held the top spot in the NFC South for all of a few hours on Sunday afternoon before a tight 27–24 loss to the Bears knocked them back into third place. The leader heading into Week 10 is now the Panthers, who hold just a 3–5 record and have lost each of their last three games. The Saints also sit at 3–5, while the Falcons—like Tampa Bay—are 3–6. Each team also has a minimum of four games left in the division to make a run.

Needless to say, the NFC South is ultra-winnable, and even if the chances of advancing past their obligatory division-winning home wild-card game may be bleak, a spot in the postseason is a spot in the postseason nonetheless. It will be fascinating to see which team ultimately comes out on top, and whether they do so as just the seventh club in NFL history to win its division with a sub-.500 record.

Eva Geitheim: Will Cam Ward solidify his hold on the job?

While Cam Ward is in just his second season, the pressure is mounting on him to prove he’s the Titans’ franchise quarterback. The Titans are looking to put a much better product on the field than their current 1–7 start when they open a new stadium in 2027. That includes at the quarterback position.

So far this season, Ward has completed 62.5% of his passes for 1,483 yards, six touchdowns and five picks. He ranks 28th out of 35 qualified quarterbacks in EPA per play (-0.14) and 25th in success rate (41.81%). He continues to show flashes of his potential that made him the No. 1 pick last year, but is still very inconsistent.

Some felt that the Jeffery Simmons trade was in part an indictment of the Titans’ feelings on Ward, that Tennessee did not feel it would be a contender soon so they traded their best player for the draft capital to continue building for the future.

Coach Robert Saleh has maintained that Ward will be their starter throughout the season, giving him ample time to prove himself. The Titans have also kept players such as Tony Pollard and Calvin Ridley instead of trading them to ensure they get a proper glimpse at Ward’s development.

Ward notably is coming off the best game of his career against the Bengals, which saw him throw for 300 yards for the first time. If he can keep playing like that over the remainder of the season, he could earn the Titans’ commitment going into 2027. If not, the Titans could be taking a long look at all their options in the 2027 quarterback class.

Bo Nix points forward before the snap. — Bo Nix and the Broncos keep finding ways to win games. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Super Bowl LXI predictions

Albert Breer: Rams 23, Broncos 17; Matthew Stafford MVP

That was my prediction at the start of the season, and maybe it hasn’t gone as I expected—the Rams are 5–4, and Denver, though 7–2, has looked wonky at times. Still, at this point last year, few would’ve thought the Patriots and Seahawks were Super Bowl bound, which reflects the marathon that an NFL season is. And Sean McVay and Sean Payton are both acutely aware of that in how they manage their teams through the year. So I think both teams are a good bet to keep improving. The Rams’ receiver injuries create challenges, for sure, and mean that they’ll have to be creative, with hopes that they’ll have Puka Nacua and Davante Adams back for the playoffs. But the run game’s been good, they have Matthew Stafford, and the defense should start ascending with Myles Garrett back and Trent McDuffie working his way back, too. As for the Broncos, theirs is, in my humble opinion, the most well-rounded roster in the NFL, and it sure feels like Bo Nix is starting to hit his stride after a scattershot start to his season. So give me the same teams I had back in early September. At least then I can’t be wrong twice.

Conor Orr: Jaguars 37, Bears 35; Trevor Lawrence MVP

Maybe this is not the Super Bowl we deserve, but this is the Super Bowl we want: two of the NFL’s great play-callers in a game where both defenses completely break down and the Super Bowl is a frantic race to 40 points. After the defensive counterrevolution of 2025 and the dominance of the Seahawks, we’re all tired of pretending to admire defensive gameplay and just want a game so full of chunk passes and explosive runs that our eyes glaze over.

The next great generation of offensive-minded NFL coaches is here, and Liam Coen and Ben Johnson, who had a chippy exchange this offseason, won’t be warm and fuzzy in the lead-up to this one.

Trevor Lawrence gets the MVP nod because almost all quarterbacks do, but this will be a total team performance from Jacksonville, barely outpacing a Bears team that is felled in the final seconds on a possible game-winning field goal drive by an interception. Both Anthony Campanile and Grant Udinski will be off to head coaching jobs, Coen will sign a massive extension worth more than $20 million per season and Jay-Z will open the halftime show with Hard Knock Life.

Gilberto Manzano: 49ers 31, Broncos 24; Brock Purdy MVP

I’m ditching one NFC West team (the Rams) for another. I knew back when Mike Evans torched the Rams’ secondary in Australia that I had made a huge mistake with my preseason Super Bowl pick. Yes, it’s a risk trusting Evans to be available when it matters most, but he’s been a difference-maker for what was already a good offense around Brock Purdy. Also, the 49ers might be the league’s most complete team—when healthy, of course. Fred Warner continues to play out of his mind and new defensive coordinator Raheem Morris has gotten the most of his young players.

The Bears also appear to be the full package after the trade for Jeffery Simmons, but I’m going to avoid the trendy team after what happened with the Rams in the first half of the season.

As for my original pick to win the AFC, I’m having trouble trusting the Bills because of their shaky defense. Buffalo has gotten better offensively under rookie head coach Joe Brady, but the defense has regressed without Sean McDermott. So, with that said, I’ll go with a team less worthy of trust, the Broncos. Their games are often ugly and chaotic, but the Broncos just find ways to win. It’s hard to explain, but strap me in. I’m jumping on the Bo Nix roller coaster.

Matt Verderame: 49ers 28, Jaguars 27; Brock Purdy MVP

This is a wide-open season, where a litany of teams in either conference could get to the Super Bowl. There are at least seven squads in the NFC that have a real chance of reaching SoFi Stadium on Valentine’s Day, including the 49ers, Seahawks, Rams, Bears, Packers, Vikings and Lions. In the AFC, the Jaguars, Bills, Chiefs, Broncos, Bengals and Patriots are all viable contenders.

But the two best, most complete teams in football through the first half are Jacksonville and San Francisco. Each has talented playmakers around quality quarterbacks, even if neither is likely to ever be an MVP or a first-team All-Pro. The defenses are extremely well-coached behind coordinators Anthony Campanile and Raheem Morris, and the pass rushes have stars on both teams. In Jacksonville, it’s Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker. In San Francisco, it’s Nick Bosa and DeForest Buckner.

If these two teams square off, we’ll be treated to tremendous offensive scheming from Kyle Shanahan and Liam Coen. Shanahan will be in his third Super Bowl with the 49ers, while Coen went as a wide receivers coach with the Rams in 2018. For Shanahan, one Super Bowl victory would almost assuredly mean a ticket into the Pro Football Hall of Fame one day, while for Coen, it would signal his ascension to the top of his field.

In a game that could go either way, take the experience and the better group of weapons, led by Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and Mike Evans.

John Pluym: Bears 28, Jaguars 24; Caleb Williams MVP

Bears GM Ryan Pace made the biggest trade at the deadline, acquiring Jeffery Simmons, who is likely the best defensive tackle in the NFL. With Simmons and Montez Sweat, his former teammate at Mississippi State, the Bears have all the firepower they need to make a Super Bowl run. And I love the way Caleb Williams plays the game. In the pocket or outside it, he reminds me of Patrick Mahomes and we know his story very well. So, I’m going all in on the Bears and Williams to beat Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars in a Super Bowl featuring two of the best offensive minds in the game, Chicago’s Ben Johnson and Jacksonville’s Liam Coen.

Mitch Goldich: Bears 29, Jaguars 26; Caleb Williams MVP

I love this matchup. Ben Johnson and Liam Coen are two great coaches and play-callers. Caleb Williams and Trevor Lawrence were both stars in college who became No. 1 draft picks. The Jaguars have never been to the Super Bowl, while the Bears haven’t won it in 41 years. We’ve had a lot of repeat teams in the Super Bowl over the past 10-plus years and it’s been fun to see some of the most stable franchises in the sport take turns chasing trophies, but it would be cool to get this splash of fresh blood on the biggest stage.

I agonized over this fictional pick more than I needed to in early November, but I will trust in the Bears here. Williams played in two wildly entertaining playoff games last season, and if the Bears can outlast the rest of this season’s NFC North, all that experience will serve him well in the season’s biggest moments.

Mike Kadlick: Chiefs 28, Bears 17; Patrick Mahomes MVP

Death, taxes and the Chiefs finding their way back to the Super Bowl.

I originally picked the superteam Rams to hoist the Lombardi Trophy at season’s end, but after a slower-than-expected start that has them on the outside looking in on the playoffs, I’ve since shifted my champion to the always-reliable Chiefs. Kansas City is 6–2 and after back-to-back losses to the Seahawks and Broncos, was able to get its mojo back with a 35–12 win over the Jets.

While some may say Patrick Mahomes hasn’t played up to snuff this season, he’s still completed 67.3% of his passes for 2,037 yards and 14 touchdowns to just four interceptions. His 101.8 passer rating, meanwhile, is his highest since 2022 and has helped him lead the Chiefs’ offense to the second-most yards per game (384.1) and the 10th-most points per game (25.3). Defensively, Kansas City has allowed the third-fewest points per game (17.9), the fifth-lowest passer rating (79.4) and has forced 11 total turnovers.

I’ve got the Chiefs taking on what will be the NFC-champion Bears in the Super Bowl. A four-interception performance against the Buccaneers in Week 9 aside, quarterback Caleb Williams has been sensational commanding Chicago’s offense since coming back from a hamstring injury. The addition of Jeffery Simmons along the front-seven will prove to be their X-factor down.

Still, I’m going with the Chiefs to win Super Bowl LXI, 28–17, behind another clutch postseason performance from Mahomes. The 31-year-old will capture his fourth Super Bowl title and fourth Super Bowl MVP.

Eva Geitheim: Broncos 28, Bears 21; Nik Bonitto MVP

In the months leading up to this season, I was confident in my Super Bowl pick of the Texans beating the Rams. That confidence was misguided. I’m picking a Broncos-Bears Super Bowl at the midpoint of the year, but do not have that same confidence in this pick.

The top contenders in both conferences are starting to separate themselves from the rest of the NFL, but the race for the Super Bowl remains wide open. I was high on the Vikings entering the season. Brian Flores’s defense has validated those beliefs; their quarterback play has not. So I’m rolling with the Bears to make it out of the NFC. Their defense has been better than I anticipated—even before the Jeffery Simmons trade—and they are the most balanced team in the NFC North.

Ultimately, I’m predicting the Bears’ run at the Super Bowl falls short at the hands of the Broncos in Los Angeles. It’s rarely pretty, but the Broncos almost always find a way to win. They’ve proved they can beat some of the best teams in the league by taking down the Jaguars, Rams, Seahawks and Chiefs already. That plus their success in the clutch will help the Broncos reach the Super Bowl and claim their fourth Lombardi Trophy.

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