Broncos Get the Edge Over Chiefs in Latest AFC West Predictions

The Denver Broncos enter the 2026 season on a mission to defend their AFC West crown.

For the 16th time in franchise history, and the first since 2015, the Broncos won the AFC West last season, finishing 14-3. After nine straight years as division champs, the Kansas City Chiefs were dethroned by the Broncos.

The Los Angeles Chargers nipped at Denver's heels for much of the 2025 campaign, but they faltered in the division race near the end. The Chiefs, meanwhile, were eliminated from divisional contention with many weeks to go in the season, and didn't make the playoffs for the first time since 2014.

The Broncos had a little something to do with that, vanquishing a desperate Chiefs team in Denver in Week 11. Patrick Mahomes, of course, would go on to suffer a multi-ligament knee injury in Week 15, being lost for what remained of the season, but the Chiefs had already been bounced from playoff contention when he went down.

Still, with Mahomes set to return this season and Bo Nix coming off a serious injury of his own, the AFC West has some question marks entering 2026. The Chargers reloaded this offseason, looking to take a bigger step forward in Year 4 of the Jim Harbaugh era.

Who wins this division? I've already picked the Broncos to repeat as AFC West champs, but it's always interesting to see how other analysts and publications view the division.

NFL Media's roundtable predicted the Broncos to win the AFC West again. Let's examine Dan Parr's explanation for why he chose the Broncos.

"If not for Bo Nix’s injury, the Broncos might have made the Super Bowl last season. With the acquisition of WR Jaylen Waddle and relatively few significant free-agent losses this offseason, Denver has established itself as the most reliable team in a tough division," Parr wrote.

Doubling Down

Denver Broncos running back J.K. Dobbins (27) rushes the ball against the Las Vegas Raiders. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Continuity reigns supreme in the Mile High City. The Broncos retained 90% of their snaps from last year, re-signing multiple key players in the offseason, like linebackers Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad, running back J.K. Dobbins, tight end Adam Trautman, depth offensive lineman Alex Palczewski, and others.

The Broncos doubled down on the 14-win roster that had them on the doorstep of the Super Bowl, and likely would have punched their ticket to the big game had Nix not suffered that ankle fracture in the playoffs. Beyond the Waddle acquisition, the Broncos only signed one outside free agent in March — safety Tycen Anderson — who made the initial roster out of camp by the skin of his teeth.

It was a tough roster to crack, though. Although they didn't make a first- or second-round pick, the Broncos drafted seven players, but three of them were waived in the final cuts. Fortunately, two of those waived draft picks were re-signed to the practice squad, though the Broncos did lose fifth-round tight end Justin Joly to a waiver claim.

The Broncos have a tremendous roster, but the outcome of the 2026 season will come down to Nix. He's been a very reliable starter since arriving as a first-round pick in 2024, starting every single regular-season game and two playoff tilts, but the second he was out of the equation, the Broncos' fortunes plummeted.

Fortunately, Nix is back; he's healthy, and looking as good as new. But last season only reinforced the reality that the Broncos will only go so far as Nix can take them in 2026. It's a good thing he's built to shoulder the load and weather the storm.

Offseason Changes

The Broncos only made a few tweaks to their roster this offseason. The Waddle trade, the draft class, and the promotion of Davis Webb to offensive coordinator headline the Broncos' offseason changes.

Everyone is excited about Waddle for obvious reasons. His one appearance in the preseason saw him take a Nix pass on third-and-long, and outrun defenders for an explosive 35-yard gain.

But the offseason move that will have the greatest impact on the Broncos' 2026 fortunes was the Webb promotion. Not only is he the new offensive coordinator, but in a shocking move, head coach Sean Payton relinquished the primary play-calling duties, passing them on to Webb.

The early returns in camp and the preseason were more than encouraging, hinting that the 2026 Broncos are going to field a more explosive offense, and one that is more committed to the ground game. Those two elements are not mutually exclusive. We're going to see some big-time plays this year built around the run game and play-action.

It's a good thing the Broncos have rebuilt their running back room over the past two offseasons, adding RJ Harvey in the second round last year and Jonah Coleman in the fourth round this past spring. With Dobbins now healthy and back in the fold, the Broncos have the running back horses to realize Webb's offensive vision, and the depth and versatility to survive the 17-game war of attrition.

The Takeaway

The Broncos have a difficult first half of the schedule. There's no getting around that.

The Broncos get the teams of the AFC East and the NFC West, two divisions that totaled five playoff squads last season. However, the silver lining is that the Chiefs and Chargers also have to play the AFC East and NFC West this season, which levels the playing field in the race to win the AFC West.

As tough as the Broncos' first eight weeks are, they have one of the NFL's easist second-half schedules. And two of the Broncos' three toughest games down the stretch will be played in Denver.

I'm not convinced the Chiefs did enough to improve their defense this offseason, and their secondary is young and inexperienced. Mahomes is back, and Andy Reid will always have some innovative tricks up his sleeve, but the Chiefs have a very tough row to hoe this season.

Meanwhile, the Broncos are returning all but one defensive starter and their entire offensive line. This defense is out to lead the NFL in sacks for the third straight season, and they have the pieces to achieve that goal.

The Broncos' confidence is sky-high, and their self-belief is strong. They can only take it one game at a time, but I have to concur with NFL.com that Denver is poised to win its 17th division crown this season.

Sign up for our free Denver Broncos On SI newsletter, and get breaking Broncos news delivered to your inbox daily!

Add us as a preferred source on Google