Jensen's Judgment: Jonah Coleman Has Forced Broncos' Hand

Bo Nix finally snapped out of his slump in Week 7, totaling nearly 300 yards from scrimmage, including a rushing and passing touchdown of 50-plus yards.

The Denver Broncos defeated the Arizona Cardinals handily, 30-16. Coinciding with Nix's get-right game was the return of rookie running back Jonah Coleman.

Coleman led the Broncos in rushing, with nine carries for 54 yards, and he outearned all of his fellow running backs in touches and snap share. It's unusual to see a rookie go from the training table on injured reserve to leading a team in rushing in a single game, especially one coached by Sean Payton.

But there's a reason why Payton immediately inserted Coleman into the lineup. The rookie has forced the Broncos' hand, and that's the subject of this week's Jensen's Judgment column.

J.K. Dobbins Wasn't Getting it Done

The bitter truth is that Dobbins hasn't looked like the player we saw for 10 games last season. His burst has diminished, his vision is lacking, and his patience in allowing blocks to set up has gone from virtue to a vice. He's waiting too long to hit the hole.

The bottom line is, Dobbins wasn't getting it done, and the Broncos' 26th-ranked rushing offense (going into Week 7) was only prolonging Nix's funk. Dobbins only received six carries against the Cardinals, rushing for 23 yards (3.8 avg.), but Payton made sure to get him a goal-line carry, which he punched in for a touchdown.

That gesture didn't seem to mollify Dobbins, though, as he ran back to the sideline and sat down on the bench as soon as he got to his feet, instead of celebrating the score with his teammates. On the ensuing possessions, Coleman took over as the Broncos' second-half closer, much like he did in Week 2.

The difference between Week 7 and Week 2, though, was that Dobbins was a little banged up against the Jacksonville Jaguars. He was completely healthy in Sunday's game in Arizona.

Dobbins leads the Broncos with 87 carries for 293 yards and three touchdowns, but he's averaging a career-low 3.4 yards per carry. His explosiveness seems to have evaporated, and whether that's due to his age (turning 28 in December) or the cumulative effect of the major injuries he's suffered is anyone's guess.

Coleman is the Way

Jonah Coleman. — Jonah Coleman picks up yardage. | Hector Acevedo / IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

When it comes to explosive runs, Dobbins has only five on 87 carries, giving him a 6% explosive-run rate, per NFL.com's Michael F. Florio. On 24 carries this season, RJ Harvey has zero explosive runs.

Coleman has four explosive runs on just 19 carries. In other words, the rookie is delivering a run of 10-plus yards on 21% of his carries. He moves the needle when he's on the field, and his burst simply gives the Broncos' offense an additional gear that's been absent with Dobbins as the No. 1 running back.

In Dobbins's defense, he did have an explosive run of 13 yards wiped out by an illegal shift penalty against the Cardinals, but it would have only improved his explosive-run percentage to just shy of 7%. The consistent ability to pick up positive yardage on the ground has played a big role in the Broncos' struggles on third down, creating way too many third-and-longs, and exacerbating, again, the Nix issue.

This offense ranks 31st in third-down efficiency, converting just 31.1% of its attempts. The one-yard-and-a-cloud-of-dust approach with Dobbins simply hasn't worked, and it's put Nix way behind the sticks with too many third-and-longs (defined as needing at least seven yards to convert).

Now, don't get it twisted; Dobbins should still have a role in this offense. His body language wasn't good on Sunday, but if he can get his mind right, his leadership and energy provide an emotional lift to the Broncos' offense — and that's valuable.

When Payton took back the play-calling duties going into Week 5, Dobbins saw his touch share skyrocket. He had 18 carries in Week 5, followed by 17 totes in Week 6.

Alas, the increase in touches did not result in better efficiency. After beating the Seattle Seahawks in overtime, Dobbins pointed to the murderer's row of defenses the Broncos had faced up to that point in the season, and he had a valid point.

But Dobbins didn't look any better against the Cardinals. Meanwhile, Payton was running out of time to inject some life into this rushing offense, and Coleman's return from injured reserve was staring him in the face.

The Takeaway

It brings me no pleasure to write this. Dobbins was given a two-year, $16 million contract extension this past spring, and is being paid to play like a top-10 running back, but the results aren't there.

It's a disappointment. But the NFL is a production-based business, and Dobbins, of all people, understands that.

Payton has now seen the explosive element Coleman brings to the table in two games this season. 19 NFL carries isn't the biggest sample size to go on, but until he gives Payton a reason to think differently, the rookie should continue to outearn Dobbins in snaps and touches as this team's RB1.

Dobbins may get the start, once again, as a sort of consolation for his demotion, but Coleman must lead the way. The rookie has already proven himself as a runner, as a receiver, and as a trusted role player in pass protection.

If Dobbins wants to earn back the RB1 duties, he's got to show it on the field. Otherwise, it's the Jonah Coleman show behind Nix moving forward.

Whether Coleman's emergence has cooled the Broncos' jets on the NFL trade winds remains to be seen. The Broncos were linked to Jonathan Taylor by Adam Schefter, but that was before Coleman's big return game in Arizona.

Meanwhile, the Indianapolis Colts' fire sale continues apace, with All-Pro right guard Quenton Nelson being dealt to Seattle on Tuesday. Stay tuned.

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