Jonathan Taylor's New Price Tag Just Changed Things for Broncos

The Denver Broncos are still being linked to the running back trade market ahead of November 10's NFL deadline.

The Broncos became the favorites to land Jonathan Taylor after Sunday's 28-24 win over the Kansas City Chiefs, but a significant obstacle could be in the way. According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, the Indianapolis Colts have received at least one offer of a second-round pick plus additional compensation for Taylor, but they've yet to pull the trigger on a trade.

The Colts are holding out for a better offer — and they could be looking for a first-round pick. The Colts are now trying to send the signal that they want to hold onto Taylor as the cornerstone of their rebuild, but in an appearance on the Pat McAfee Show on Tuesday, NFL insider Ian Rapoport implied that Indy is looking for a first-round offer to part with their Pro Bowl back.

Would Taylor be worth a first-round pick to a team like the Broncos? That's the question.

As the Colts try to raise Taylor's value ahead of the deadline, the Broncos have to resist the temptation to overpay. As reliable and consistent as the veteran back is, he'll turn 28 in January, and he's rapidly approaching the dreaded 2,000-carry milestone.

Taylor just signed a two-year, $44 million extension this summer, but his 2027 and 2028 salaries are $15 million and $9.46 million, respectively. His contract isn't prohibitive, especially for the caliber of back he is, but it's the cost to acquire him that could be the hitch in the Broncos' giddyup.

Dearth of First-Round Picks

The Broncos have only made two first-round picks in the past five years, due to costly trades involving Russell Wilson, Sean Payton, and Jaylen Waddle. Nobody is questioning the compensation Denver gave to New Orleans to acquire Payton's rights — he's been worth every penny, so to speak — but the Wilson trade blew up in the Broncos' face, and the jury is still out on Waddle.

As the Broncos begin to age into one of the NFL's older rosters, keeping the draft pipeline flowing could become increasingly important. That's especially true as it pertains to a future Bo Nix contract, as that'll limit the number of salary-cap dollars available to pay veterans.

Giving up a second-round pick for Taylor, plus perhaps a couple of mid-round selections, would already be pushing the envelope for Denver. But if the Broncos believed he would be the missing piece to get them over the Super Bowl hump, it would quickly become a case of 'F(orget) them picks' — a phrase the Los Angeles Rams have made famous.

Is Taylor Worth It?

Jonathan Taylor. — Jonathan Taylor breaks loose. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

I'm not convinced Taylor is worth a second-round pick, let alone a first-rounder, especially given the emergence of Jonah Coleman. Plus, the Broncos expect to get RJ Harvey back from injured reserve in a few weeks, and they still have J.K. Dobbins, whom Payton vociferously claimed on Wednesday is still a "huge part of what we're doing."

If the Broncos were to acquire Taylor, he'd be the de facto No. 1 running back, pushing everyone else, including Coleman, down the depth chart. Again, that's a collateral effect the Broncos could live with, if Taylor was the answer to unlocking this offense.

And he very well could be. The Broncos are the NFL's worst third-down offense halfway through the season, mainly because of their inefficiency on first and second down. Taylor could ostensibly help fix that in a hurry, moving the chains and giving Bo Nix much more favorable third-down situations.

I could see Taylor being an immediate difference-maker, but the idea that Denver would have to go another year without making a first-round selection... it would put a lot of pressure on Payton to win a Super Bowl this year.

A Different Tack

Tony Pollard. — Tony Pollard turns the corner. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Another option could be to trade for a guy who could simply fit into the Broncos' running back committee. Payton often laments the difficulty of feeding more than two running backs on game day, though a third back often gets some usage in the offense, like Harvey on third down and in the passing game.

This is much more of an issue for Denver now, only because Harvey is out of reach for the next three games. The Broncos' next three games are at the Carolina Panthers, home against the Las Vegas Raiders, and on the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

If the Broncos believe they can weather that three-game storm without Harvey, with Coleman and Dobbins, they probably don't make a trade for a running back. But if they're worried about it, maybe they don't swing for the fences with Taylor and instead look at a more affordable option like Tennessee's Tony Pollard, who already has 595 rushing yards and six touchdowns in a terrible Titans offense.

The Takeaway

It's a pickle. Since the Broncos have become competitive, we know GM George Paton has considered making trades ahead of the deadline as recently as last year (Waddle). But Paton has never actually pulled the in-season trigger.

At the same time, Paton never got close to a Lombardi Trophy until last year, and that, ladies and gentlemen, is why all bets are off. If the Colts stick to their guns, looking for a first-round value in exchange for Taylor, the Broncos may look elsewhere for help. They'll still be looking, though.

But if it's just a negotiating tactic, Taylor could end up going for much less, just as we saw when the Colts dealt away All-Pro left guard Quenton Nelson (for a third- and a fifth-rounder) and veteran defensive lineman DeForest Buckner (a fourth-rounder). The Colts gave up both trenchmen for much less than was expected.

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