Broncos Facing Historic Underdog Odds vs. Patriots in AFC Title Game

The oddsmakers have set the Broncos up to make dubious NFL history in the AFC championship game.

Oct 13, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Jarrett Stidham (8) warms up before the game against the Los Angeles Chargers at Empower Field at Mile High. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

With Bo Nix out for the playoffs, the oddsmakers have set the Denver Broncos up as home underdogs against the New England Patriots. Sportsline has the Broncos as 5.5-point home dogs, while FanDuel Sportsbook has them at -4.5 to the Patriots.

If the spread holds, the 2025 Broncos would be the biggest home underdogs in a conference championship game in NFL history, according to Sportsline.

Largest home underdogs in Conference Championship history:

2025 Broncos +5.5 vs Patriots
1977 Broncos +4 vs Raiders
1976 Raiders +4 vs Steelers pic.twitter.com/ZFPpLcuIZH

— SportsLine (@SportsLine) January 20, 2026

Considering all the long odds the Broncos have overcome this season, -5.5 seems disrespectful. But this is how the bettors currently view Broncos-Patriots.

It's still early in the week. The AFC championship game will be on Sunday, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see the line narrow a bit before kickoff.

That's what happened last week with the Buffalo Bills starting as 1.5-point favorites over the Broncos in the Divisional Round. By the end of the week, the odds swung in Denver's favor by the same spread.

The Broncos beat the Bills 33-30, though it came down to some blockbuster plays and no small amount of controversy in overtime. Publicly, the Broncos were dismissive of the home underdog thing, but privately, it may have played a part in the team's motivation.

Sean Payton and Nix both played down the underdog label early in the week, pointing to how the Broncos have no control over the odds. Still, Payton is savvy, and part of any coach's brief is to find their team an edge, no matter where it comes from.

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The Overdogs

Dec 14, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) and quarterback Jarrett Stidham (8) run out for player introductions prior to a game against the Green Bay Packers at Empower Field at Mile High. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Throughout this season, the Broncos have embraced the underdog label. Nix's iconic "We're the overdogs" exclamation rang as a rallying cry after the Broncos beat the favored Green Bay Packers (handily) in Week 15.

But Nix and his clutch-time conjuring won't be there for Broncos-Patriots, and therein lies the explanation for the skepticism from the oddsmakers. Jarrett Stidham will start in Nix's place, seeing his first action in a meaningful football game since Week 17 of the 2023 season.

Stidham is about to become the first quarterback in NFL history to make start in a conference championship without having thrown a single pass at any previous point in the season. Roger Staubach made his first start of the season in the 1972 NFC championship game, but he attempted 20 passes in the regular season.

The unprecedented nature of Stidham's start this week has the Patriots favored on the road. But what the oddsmakers might want to take into consideration is that Stidham will benefit from the same offensive line — led by two All-Pros — that surrendered the fewest sacks in the NFL this season, as well a Broncos defense that took the ball away from Josh Allen and the Bills five times, after leading the league in sacks.

Maye's Tough Day

Patriots quarterback Drake Maye was sacked five times last week by the Houston Texans. He also threw one interception and fumbled four times, losing two of them.

That's music to the Broncos' ears. Having the Mile High faithful at their back is another feather in Denver's cap. The home crowd was very active last week vs. the Bills. Empower Field at Mile High was as loud as it's perhaps ever been.

That's going to be a tough environment for Maye to play in. However, the young quarterback has turned in an MVP-level performance in Year 2, and answered many level-of-competition questions by beating the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wildcard Round and the Texans last week.

Maye hasn't had to leave the comfy environs of Gillette Stadium yet since the playoffs began. And the Patriots have never won in Denver in the playoffs.

If Stidham plays as well as Payton expects, the Broncos could win this game and advance to the Super Bowl.

"He’s ready. I’ve said this at the beginning of the season, I feel like I have a [No.] 2 [quarterback] that’s capable of starting for a handful of, a number of teams," Payton said of Stidham last Saturday after announcing Nix's broken ankle. "I know he feels the same way. So watch out. Just watch. He’s experienced, he’s played in games."

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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