3 Keys to Broncos Upsetting Patriots in the AFC Championship Game

Here's how the Broncos vanquish the Patriots and advance to Super Bowl 60.

DENVER, CO - JANUARY 17: Denver Broncos linebacker Nik Bonitto (15) celebrates after a defensive play in the second half in the AFC Divisional Round game at Empower Field at Mile High on January 17, 2026 in Denver, Colorado. | Dustin Bradford / IMAGO / Icon Sportswire

The Denver Broncos are coming off their first playoff win in a decade, defeating the Buffalo Bills 33-30 in a thrilling overtime win in the divisional round. In a contest that featured six total turnovers and three lead changes, Broncos Country was elated to see the team advance to the AFC championship game for the first time in 10 years.

Alas, the feelings of gratitude and elation quickly devolved into frustration and disbelief after head coach Sean Payton returned to the post-game podium to announce that starting quarterback Bo Nix’s season was over due to a fractured right ankle.

The second-year team captain underwent successful ankle surgery on Tuesday in Birmingham, Alabama, while his team shifted its support and belief to supporting backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham, who’ll take the reins for Denver’s offense. 

‘Stiddy,’ as affectionately coined by Payton, will be the first NFL quarterback since Roger Staubach in 1972 to make his first start of the season in a conference championship game, as the Broncos welcome the New England Patriots to Denver this Sunday. 

The Patriots blasted the Houston Texans 28-16 in Foxborough last Sunday. New England head coach Mike Vrabel and quarterback Drake Maye will lead a confident, dangerous bunch into Denver.

Ironically, Stidham will face the same team that drafted him back in 2019. This will also be Denver’s third AFC championship game in the last 20 seasons. All three have been against New England, and the Broncos have yet to lose to them in a postseason game in Denver.

The Broncos and Patriots have been on a collision course all season long, though few would’ve thought that Denver would be without Nix.

Because football is a team sport, and the business of the NFL waits for no one, the show must go on. What will it take for this wildly successful Broncos season to advance to Super Bowl 60, despite the Nix setback?

Let's break down three keys to a Broncos victory over the Patriots.

No Pity for ‘Stiddy’: Jarret Primed by Payton

Oct 13, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Jarrett Stidham (8) warms up before the game against the Los Angeles Chargers at Empower Field at Mile High. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Those who hold the Orange and Blue near and dear to their hearts feel the Broncos' pain of losing their franchise quarterback ahead of such a pivotal game. Don't count the defensive-minded Vrabel among the grieving, though, as his Patriots remain one game away from punching their ticket to the Super Bowl. 

Stidham has to carry the torch and burden forward. His four career starts will be the fewest by any quarterback entering a conference championship start in league history. The 29-year-old hasn’t thrown a regular-season pass this season, with just one snap to his stat book, which was a kneel-down in October. 

Stidham’s last NFL start came in Week 18 of the 2023 season against the Las Vegas Raiders, and it was just the fourth of his career. It's a daunting thought that he'll now have to start in the AFC title game, but perhaps there’s some freedom in rolling with ‘Stiddy.’

Don’t get me wrong: like Broncos Country, my thoughts and prayers are with the Nix family, but Payton could use some gamesmanship in starting the mysterious Stidham.

In the preseason last summer, Stidham went 30-of-38 for 376 passing yards and four touchdowns, with zero interceptions. He posted a 143.0 passer rating, and he also rushed for 36 yards on three carries.

No, the AFC championship tilt isn’t remotely the same as preseason warmup matchups, but the mindset for the Broncos' offense is simple: in Payton we trust. 

Former New Orleans Saints quarterback Chase Daniel, a former Payton disciple who shared the positional room with Drew Brees, alluded to the same ethos for the Broncos this week.

Expect Stidham to take the deep shot to receiver Marvin Mims, Jr., who led the Broncos last week with eight catches for 93 yards and a touchdown. Stidham will also be looking to connect with team captain Courtland Sutton to move the chains, as the Pro Bowler has a penchant for making plays in critical situations.

Perhaps ‘Stiddy’ can even lead a scrambling attack on the ground to keep the Patriots' stellar defense at bay. After all, he’s as unsuspecting and athletic an opponent as New England has faced all season, despite offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels being familiar with Stidham's game. 

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Broncos Must Slay the Drake Maye Turnover Dragon 

Jan 18, 2026; Foxborough, MA, USA; Houston Texans defensive end Danielle Hunter (55) blocks a throw by New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) in the first half in an AFC Divisional Round game at Gillette Stadium. | David Butler II-Imagn Images

Maye will be prepared on Sunday in Denver after going 16-of-27 for 179 passing yards and three touchdowns against the Texans. He was picked off once by Houston and fumbled four times, losing two of them.

The second-year signal-caller plays an aggressive brand of football that yields high-risk, high-reward results for a Patriots offense that is just as formidable an opponent as its defense.

For these reasons, Vance Joseph's defense will be tasked with creating multiple takeaways against an AFC East opponent for the second straight week. The Broncos boasted five total takeaways against superstar quarterback Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills last Saturday. The Bills have since fired head coach Sean McDermott.

Broncos defensive backs P.J. Locke and Ja'Quan McMillian each recorded timely interceptions, the latter of which allowed Denver to pounce on Buffalo in a contest that featured a few calls from the referees that drew the ire of Bills Mafia. 

Locke, outside linebacker Nik Bonitto (two), and linebacker Alex Singleton were all credited with forced fumbles as well, which directly added to the dismay of the Bills' beleaguered offense and continued to provide Payton’s offense with opportunities to flip the field, score points, and chew some clock.

The Broncos were credited with three sacks on Allen last week, despite a multitude of missed holding calls in the trenches. Denver will look to replicate its overwhelming pass rush against Maye.

The fact of the matter is, as talented as Maye is, he’s beatable, especially when defenses bang him up. He’s taken 10 sacks in the last two playoff games and has also thrown two interceptions and fumbled the football six times. 

I’d like to see just how in tune and adaptable the combination of Maye and McDaniels can be with heavy pressure in New England’s backfield, paired with the inexperience of a quarterback who has yet to face the Mile High Mania of Broncos Country in Denver.

Dobbins' Potential Return Could Reboot the Run Game

Nov 6, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos running back J.K. Dobbins (27) runs the ball in the fourth quarter against the Las Vegas Raiders at Empower Field at Mile High. | Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

The Batman of Denver’s rushing attack could be returning to action when Payton’s offense needs him the most. The Broncos have opened the 21-day practice window for starting running back J.K. Dobbins to make his return from injured reserve, where he's been since suffering a Lisfranc injury in Week 10.

Sunday will be an all-hands-on-deck endeavor for Denver. Remember, the Broncos fielded a top-10 rushing offense while Dobbins was healthy, but their ground attack has since fallen off, with Payton increasingly utilizing his running backs in the passing game.

Rookie running back RJ Harvey assumed the starting role in the wake of Dobbins’ injury, but has yet to record a 100-yard rushing performance this season, even though he has seven rushing touchdowns and five receiving scores to boot. ‘Quadzilla’ also had the highest missed tackles forced rate (63.6%) in the divisional round, adding to his repertoire as a physical and explosive playmaker. 

As admirable as Harvey's greenhorn campaign has been, the talented youngster would greatly benefit from the return of Dobbins, as would Denver’s rushing offense with a restored one-two punch rushing threat. 

Against the Bills last week, the Broncos' run game was virtually non-existent. Denver posted 70 total rushing yards on 22 attempts from Nix, Harvey, and Jaleel McLaughlin. Nix led the team with 29 rushing yards on 12 carries.

Although I have concerns with Dobbins shaking off some rust, with just one week of practice ahead of the AFC championship game, the time is now for the veteran to go all-in for Payton’s offense. If he's activated from IR, I don’t expect Dobbins to rush for 100-plus yards in his first game back from injury, but any involvement could go a long way toward sparking this offense.

For the Broncos and perhaps even Dobbins, who has been plagued with injuries since entering the league in 2020, there is no tomorrow when the AFC Championship kicks off. That has to be the mindset.

If Dobbins is willing and physically able, he shouldn’t be on a pitch count. If he's activated, Payton should not hesitate to utilize his tandem of Dobbins and Harvey to thwart Vrabel’s vicious group of defenders.