Mile High Roundtable Renders Predictions & Picks for Broncos-Patriots

The Denver Broncos have been on a collision course with the New England Patriots all year long. The AFC's only two 14-win teams advanced to the AFC championship game, where fans were hoping to see the first head-to-head matchup between Bo Nix and Drake Maye.

Instead of seeing these two 2024 first-round quarterbacks trade blows in the AFC title game, the football fates intervened. Although Nix finished Denver's divisional round game, defeating Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills in overtime, he suffered a fractured ankle and is done for the rest of this season.

It was as big a gut-punch as any team in the history of conference championships has ever been dealt. To Sean Payton's credit, though, the Broncos immediately turned the page to Jarrett Stidham.

The Patriots are a complete team. And they still have their MVP-caliber quarterback. Meanwhile, the Broncos are diminished, but that doesn't mean they can't win with Stidham under center, especially with the best offensive line in football and a defense that led the NFL in sacks.

How will it all shake out on Sunday at Empower Field at Mile High?

Let's go around the table to see how the Denver Broncos On SI/Mile High Huddle staff envision this one unfolding. Be sure to follow our editorial staff and excellent writers on X/Twitter, which are linked next to each author's name.

Keith Cummings (@KeithC_NFL) 15-3: When the Nix news broke, the first thought was that Stidham might not have enough to beat the Patriots. Hope springs eternal, though. During the week, we've seen a tidal wave of positive vibes in support of Stidham and playing all three phases still matters. Furthermore, the home-crowd noise and altitude help the Broncos keep it close and Wil Lutz boots a late winner to send them to the Super Bowl.

Pick: Broncos 20, Patriots 17

Thomas Hall (@ThomasHallNFL) 15-3: The Broncos are in uncharted territory by losing their starting QB at this point in the playoffs. There's never been a No. 1 seed that has suffered this fate and still won the Super Bowl. However, being at home and their stout defense will get the Broncos one step closer to that goal, as long as Stidham doesn’t give the game away.

Pick: Broncos 18, Patriots 17

Chad Jensen (@ChadNJensen) 15-3: It's hard to know what to expect offensively with Stidham under center. Our sample size for him as the Broncos' QB1 is not only small, but also more than two years old. Still, I like that Luke Wattenberg is poised to return to his center spot, and if J.K. Dobbins is activated, it will portend well for Stidham and the offense. Defensively, the Broncos have taken the ball away seven times in the past two games, and Maye has taken a lot of sacks and turned it over at an alarming rate in his two playoff games. Both games were at Gillette Stadium; this one's at Empower Field at Mile High. Give me the Broncos' defense, notching three takeaways on Maye, which sets Stidham up with a few extra possessions and short fields. That ends up being the difference. This epic Broncos season culminates in a trip to Super Bowl 60.

Pick: Broncos 23, Patriots 19

Luke Patterson (@LukePattersonLP) 15-3: Let’s be real clear: this Patriots defense is legit under Mike Vrabel, who embodies his team’s tough personality. But the talented Maye has made a bad habit of turning the ball over and has been sacked 10 times in the last two playoff games. It’s important to remember he’s not Tom Brady. Call me crazy, but I think ‘Stiddy’ and the rest of this Broncos squad muster up enough Mile High Magic in Denver, where the Pats have never won a playoff game.

Pick: Broncos 27, Patriots 24

Dylan Von Arx (@DylanVonArxMHH) 14-4: The Broncos' final test before they can reach the Super Bowl is a familiar playoff foe. Maye has been sacked 10 times, fumbled six times, and threw two picks in the last two games, which bodes well for s Broncos defense that will be hungry after its five-takeaway performance against the Bills. Stidham is leading the offense and while he hasn't thrown a pass this year, he's been in Coach Payton's system for three years, has a strong arm, and decent mobility, which will be enough to keep the offense steady. The Patriots will fall to 0-5 against the Broncos in Denver in the playoffs.

Pick: Broncos 24, Patriots 20

Erick Trickel (@ErickTrickel) 14-4: There is a lot of pressure on the Broncos to step up and rally behind the loss of Nix as the underdogs. The Patriots are a good team with a well-rounded offense and an aggressive defense, and they can attack the Broncos where they have vulnerabilities. However, the Broncos being at home as underdogs without Nix rallies the locker room and they put together a good game to walk out with another narrow victory. Payton gets the chance to be the first head coach to win a Super Bowl with two different teams.

Pick: Broncos 27, Patriots 18

Carl Dumler (@CarlDumlerMHH) 14-4: Last week was one of the most bitter sweet moments of watching a great Broncos victory be followed by a gut-punch in losing Nix. Listening to the coaches and players this week, though, would have you believing the Broncos should be the favorites. The players seem to be closing ranks around Stidham and we will see a team ready to elevate its game. The Broncos also got some good injury information with possibly Wattenberg and Dobbins coming back this week. The Broncos play inspired football and find a way to win late once again.

Pick: Broncos 27, Patriots 20

Zack Kelberman (@KelbermanNFL) 13-5: As stunning and devastating as the Nix injury was, there’s really only two ways this game will go: either the Broncos will rally for their dear captain and advance to the Super Bowl — something straight out of Hollywood —- or they’ll run out of gas on the final lap, the result of a historically heart-pounding season. I’m cautiously optimistic in the former scenario, with Stidham impressing more than many expect and the defense finally reverting to its pre-bye week ways. As always, however, it won’t come easy — or without drama.

Pick: Broncos 17, Patriots 16

Nick Kendell (@NickKendellMHH) 13-5: Turnover differential. Lines of scrimmage. Special teams. Coaching. The Broncos may have lost their franchise quarterback for the season, but don't tell that to the locker room, which has heaped praise on Stidham at every turn. Football is a simple game, though, in the end. Can the Broncos stop the run on early downs to hunt Maye on pass down? Can they limit explosives? Can they win upfront, protect the ball, and take it away? In a playoff year without star QBs such as Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow, why not a team with a backup quarterback making the big game?

Pick: Broncos 23, Patriots 20

Bob Morris (@BobMorrisSports) 13-5: It will hurt not having Nix under center, but the Broncos are clearly rallying behind Stidham. The Broncos are expected to have some players in the lineup who have either been out for a while or exited the divisional round game against the Bills, which should help. The Patriots are good on offense, but that unit has six turnovers in the postseason. New England's defense has improved, but it will face the best offensive line yet in the playoffs. Of course, none of that matters if Stidham doesn't rise to the occasion. But my gut tells me he will, allowing the Broncos to pull out another close win and head to Super Bowl 60.

Pick: Broncos 20, Patriots 17

Ron White (@RonWhiteNFL) 13-5: After an exhilarating victory against the Bills, the Broncos now face the hot Patriots without Nix. This game will be decided in the trenches. The Broncos' defense should be able to sack Maye three times and force one turnover, while the offense will protect Stidham. Expect a solid game from Evan Engram and at least one Broncos' rushing touchdown. The Broncos advance to Super Bowl 60.

Pick: Broncos 24, Patriots 17

James Campbell (@JamesC_MHH) 13-5: Say what you want about these Broncos, but they play hard for each other and the coaches. Nix going down obviously hurts the Broncos but a galvanized defense and running game, as well as some Mile High Magic, key a win over the Patriots. The defense find a way to get generate timely pressures and takeaways, and Payton puts Stidham in positions to win early and often.

Pick: Broncos 21, Patriots 17

Lance Sanderson (@LanceS_MHH) 12-6: While the Patriots have a significant quarterback advantage in this game, the Broncos have an even bigger leg up with their pass rush against New England's offensive line. That's the key to this game. If the Broncos can get after Maye, run the ball effectively, and finish a couple of drives with seven instead of three, they absolutely can win this game. That's exactly what's going to happen, with five sacks, over 100 yards on the ground, and a pair of Stidham touchdown passes.

Pick: Broncos 24, Patriots 20

More On SI Broncos-Patriots Coverage