Revisiting ESPN’s 2025 Stat Predictions for the Broncos

How close was Mike Clay to predicting the Broncos' 2025 stats?

Denver Broncos v New York Jets International Series 12 10 2025. International Series Denver Broncos Quarterback Bo Nix (10) shouts during the International Series match between Denver Broncos and New York Jets at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, United Kingdom on 12 October 2025. London Tottenham Hotspur Stadium London United Kingdom. | Manjit Narotra / IMAGO / Pro Sports Images

Stat projections are a big deal for ESPN, and Mike Clay had some engaging projections for the Denver Broncos ahead of the 2025 season. With the regular season in the books, it's worth looking back and seeing where Clay got it wrong.

To start, let’s look at the team projections, where Clay had Denver winning the seventh-most games at 9.9 wins, which the Broncos obviously exceeded with their 14-3 record. He also had Denver scoring 397 points and allowing 355 points.

The Broncos scored 401 points to 311 allowed. Denver, as a team, exceeded Clay's projections, and the same held for the player stat projections for the most part. 

Offensive Projections vs. Production

When it comes to Bo Nix, Clay’s projections were actually pretty close. He had 3,949 yards with 27 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, with 418 rushing yards and another three touchdowns.  Nix was 18 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception below Clay's passing projections, and just 62 rushing yards shy. 

J.K. Dobbins had 772 rushing yards when Clay projected 708, and didn’t play a full season due to injury, as Clay projected. Clay had RJ Harvey leading the team with 834 yards when he only had 540, while exceeding the receiving projection by six yards.

The significant difference was that Clay predicted seven Harvey touchdowns, but the rookie hit 12 on the season. Jaleel McLaughlin had nearly twice as many rushing yards as Clay projected. 

Courtland Sutton had seven more receiving yards but two fewer touchdowns, marking a close hit for Clay here, but he was way off on most of the other receivers. Pat Bryant was another close one for Clay, with 378 yards compared to 425 that was projected, with Bryant missing a game and barely playing early in the season. 

Marvin Mims Jr. and Troy Franklin were way off in opposite directions. Clay projected 623 yards for Mims and 363 for Franklin, when the opposite was closer. Franklin ended with 709 yards as the Broncos' second leading receiver, and Mims with 322 yards and the sixth leading receiver. 

Lastly, for the offense, is Evan Engram, whom Clay projected to have 80 catches for 711 yards and three touchdowns. However, Engram was unable to find a consistent role in the passing game and ended with 65 catches for 461 yards and a single touchdown. 

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Defensive Projections vs. Production

October 26, 2025: Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) fends off Denver Broncos linebacker Nik Bonitto (15) before being sacked in the first half of the football game between the Denver Broncos and Dallas Cowboys. | Derek Regensburger / IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

Defensively, Clay was way off, projecting 44 sacks and 12 interceptions. The Broncos pushed for records in both, as they pursued the single-season sack record and set a new franchise record in sacks in back-to-back seasons with 68 this year.

Denver fell short in interceptions with 10, and barely broke the franchise low in takeaways by one. 

Zach Allen was projected with 7.6 sacks, John Franklin-Myers with 4.5, and D.J. Jones and Malcolm Roach with 2.0 and 2.2. Allen fell short, barely, with seven sacks, and Franklin-Meyers had 7.5 and missed some time. Roach had four sacks, with Jones ending with three. 

As for the edge rushers, Jonathon Cooper was set to have 6.7, with Nik Bonitto leading the team with 8.2. Jonah Elliss was projected to have 3.3, with Que Robinson at 1.4 and Dondrea Tillman at 1.1. All but Elliss and Robinson exceeded Clay’s projections. 

Bonitto nearly doubled the projection with 14 sacks, and Cooper barely exceeded with eight sacks. Tillman was the biggest surprise to the predictions, with four sacks. Elliss fell short with 2.5 sacks, and Robinson only had a half sack. 

In terms of coverage, we only have interceptions to measure, with everyone projected to have one or two, except Brandon Jones, who was projected with 2.6. With only Tillman and Ja’Quan McMillian as the only two defenders with more than one interception, it's safe to say Clay was off here. 

The Takeaway

Overall, Clay’s projections weren’t terrible. They were way off on sacks and a few players, but for the most part, Clay was pretty on point.

Respect to Clay and the job he does. But if he were spot on with everything, there would be no need to play the games.