What needs to happen for Cleveland Browns to win No. 1 overall NFL Draft pick

To even have a chance at the No. 1 overall NFL Draft pick in 2026, the Cleveland Browns need to do something they're very familiar with doing: lose.

The 3-11 Browns are racing against three two-win team and two three-win teams. The New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals sit at 3-11 while the Tennessee Titans, New York Giants, and Las Vegas Raiders sit at 2-12 going into this week of regular season action.

Quarterback Shedeur Sanders leads his offense into three incredibly tough final weeks of football. Sanders is playing to get the Browns out of the No. 1 overall pick scene. Sanders will be looking to do everything he can to decrease the incentive of selecting Fernando Mendoza or Dante Moore No. 1 overall.

If the Browns have the entire NFL draft pool to choose from, he'll be very tempted to select a quarterback, even with Dillon Gabriel and Deshaun Watson still on the roster. The stakes are as high as they can be right now for any three-win team in the NFL.

Cleveland has the second highest odds

According to ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cleveland Browns have the second highest odds of receiving the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft at 20.3% behind the 2-12 Las Vegas Raiders. This means ESPN's FPI says the New York Giants and Tennessee Titans have a higher chance of winning at least one of their games than the Cleveland Browns do.

The Browns defense plays against Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers, and Joe Burrow to close out the season.

"They are most certainly not favored in any games. The Browns face the Bills, Steelers and Bengals, a high degree of difficulty stretch. FPI favors Cleveland's opponents by at least 8.5 points in each of those matchups, though it remains to be seen what the state of the Bengals is in Week 18."
ESPN's Seth Walder

What Cleveland is up against

Cleveland fans are at odds. They definitely want to see their team lose but they want to lose in a way that sees Sanders still thriving.

The Raiders are the overwhelming favorites to receive the No. 1 overall pick. ESPN's FPI measures their chances of getting the pick at 37.6%. The Titans are have the limping Kansas City Chiefs, the struggling New Orleans Saints, and a tough divisional opponent in the Jacksonville Jaguars to close out their season.

The New York Giants also have a favorable few games left. Quarterback Jaxson Dart leads his team into games against the Minnesota Vikings, Las Vegas Raiders, and the Dallas Cowboys.

The problem in Cleveland

For another year, the problem in Cleveland was very clear. The offense struggled mightily the entire season. The Cleveland defense was competitive, but a defense paired with an abysmal offense makes playing defense exponentially more difficult.

"Cleveland is tied with Tennessee for the lowest mark in yards per play (4.3) this season. The Browns are last in offensive EPA, per NFL Next Gen Stats, and have cycled through three different starting quarterbacks -- Joe Flacco, Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders. But the issues span beyond the QB, from an oft-injured and underperforming offensive line to a lack of playmakers on the outside."
ESPN's Daniel Oyefusi

The 10-4 Buffalo Bills travel to Cleveland this Sunday to play the Browns inside Huntington Bank Field at 1:00 p.m. Eastern on CBS.