3 Ways the Buccaneers Upset the Bears on Sunday Night Football

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a tough, tough task on Sunday Night Football. They're set to duel against the Chicago Bears, who just defeated the defending Super Bowl champions and are looking like Super Bowl contenders themselves this year.

The Bucs haven't been slouches themselves in recent weeks either, though. They've won three of their last four games, and they currently boast one of the best running offenses and one of the best overall defenses in football.

The Bears will be favored to win this one on home turf against a Bucs team that has struggled this year, and they definitely should be. But the Bucs will try their hardest to get the upset done on the road to move to 4-5 and, potentially, the NFC South lead.

Here's how the Bucs can defeat the Bears on Sunday:

Punish the Run Game

Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7) runs the ball against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the third quarter | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

This one shouldn't be too hard for the Bucs — they're really, really good at it, and Chicago is middling at running the football.

Chicago's rushing success rate is 40.6% and their EPA/play on the ground is -0.096. The Bucs have been excellent against the run, allowing a rush EPA/play of -0.208, and they allow just a 35.3% success rate. The Bucs allow the second-fewest yards per game on the ground (80).

Despite their overall lack of advanced metrics in their favor, the Bears still tend to produce on the ground in raw numbers. They're second in the NFL in rushing yards per game behind Tampa Bay's offense (150.8) and they run the ball quite often, the fourth-highest rate in the league (48.87%).

If the Bucs are going to stop the Bears, it starts right here. The Bears have high production but run inefficiently, so limiting explosive plays from running backs like D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai (if he plays) will be key.

Tampa Bay has done a good job of that so far this season, but they can't just be tough against the run in Chicago — they have to bury it.

Pass, Pass, Pass

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) celebrates at the end of the fourth quarter after defeating the Atlanta Falcons | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Buccaneers are going to have to throw the football sometime. This would be a great game to start.

The Bucs have thrown just 14 passes in their last two games for 64 yards. The Carolina Panthers and the Atlanta Falcons were almost entirely unable to handle Tampa Bay's run game, and as a result, the Bucs had no need to throw as they ran for hundreds of yards and easily won both matchups.

That will not be the same environment that Tampa Bay walks into on Sunday. New defensive tackle Jeffrey Simmons will ensure that the middle is sufficiently blocked, so Tampa Bay simply must be able to pass with a passing game that has been largely ineffective under Zac Robinson.

Robinson will have to dial up some strong concepts to combat Dennis Allen's defense in Chicago. Additionally, quarterback Baker Mayfield must play well as he recovers from his injured thumb and the receiving corps — potentially without Emeka Egbuka — has to get some separation.

Keep Caleb Williams in Check

Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams (18) heads to the locker room at halftime against the Seattle Seahawks | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Caleb Williams may very well be the most talented quarterback in football. He's had some consistency issues, but ever since returning from a hamstring injury, he's been simply excellent.

Williams thrives off-platform and is very comfortable outside the pocket. Recently, however, he's been very good at standing and delivering the football inside the pocket, too, and there isn't a throw he cannot make. The key for Tampa Bay will be to get pressure on Williams from the interior and get him down quickly with Calijah Kancey and A'Shawn Robinson — they're in for a long night if they don't.

The Bucs could also utilize some man coverage against Williams, too. He has a +0.048 dropback EPA/play against man coverage and a +0.294 dropback EPA/play against zone, so getting Tampa Bay's excellent secondary a little closer to the football may help them.

Williams will get his. The Bucs just have to make sure it isn't often.

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