5 Games That Will Decide Whether Buccaneers Make the Playoffs

The NFL is a league of small margins, and dropping a single game can mean the difference between making the playoffs and watching them at home.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers know this very, very well. They've won the NFC South by a game in three of Todd Bowles' four seasons as head coach, and last year, they lost it by a game after going 8-9 after a 6-2 start. Tampa Bay is trying to rectify that in 2026, but it has quite the schedule to get through.

The Bucs are playing a second-place schedule this season, but their NFC North and AFC North draws will be tough and their common opponents should give them some trouble. These are teams the Bucs should beat if they really are contenders, though, and the schedule gives the Bucs plenty of opportunity to prove themselves.

If the Bucs want to make the playoffs, they'll have to establish themselves. Here are five games on their schedule where they can do just that.

Week 5: at Dallas Cowboys

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) warms up before the game against the New York Giants | Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

Tampa Bay's defense faced a good brunt of the team's scrutiny last year, but now, general manager Jason Licht and Todd Bowles have revamped it entirely. Week 5 offers one of the team's earliest tests to see just how revamped that defense is.

Newcomers like Rueben Bain Jr., Alex Anzalone, Josiah Trotter and Keionte Scott will need to show up against an electric Cowboys offense that fielded a top-three offense in yards per game and a top-five offense in points per game. The Bucs will have to control weapons like George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb in the receiving room and contain quarterback Dak Prescott, one of the league's best.

The Bucs have also struggled massively on prime time under Bowles' tenure, going 5-12 in prime time games (and 2-9 since 2022). If the Bucs want to win a championship, they'll have to show up under the lights.

Week 9: at Chicago Bears

Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson looks on during Minicamp at Halas Hall. | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

Speaking of high-powered offenses and prime time games, the Bucs will face another offensive machine in the Chicago Bears in Week 9, right before their bye week.

The Buccaneers have squared off with current Bears HC Ben Johnson before, when he was the offensive coordinator for the Detroit Lions. Johnson is one of the NFL's premier playcallers, and he'll be watching very closely to see how the Bucs fare against high-flying offenses like the Cowboys, Cincinnati Bengals and Green Bay Packers before this matchup.

The Bears made it all the way to the Divisional Round last year and nearly beat an impressive Los Angeles Rams team. It would depend on how Tampa Bay has looked before this, but if it can beat one of the NFL's most high-powered offenses in the cold on prime time? The Bucs might feel pretty good about their playoff chances right before the bye week.

Week 11: at Detroit Lions

Detroit Lions defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard, right, shakes hands with Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

And then right after the bye week, the Bucs face off against a team that has become somewhat of a rival in recent years in the Detroit Lions.

Including the playoffs, the Lions are 3-1 against the Buccaneers since 2023. Tampa Bay has generally had trouble containing their offense, and Detroit's defense has done its fair share as well — the Bucs were beaten handily 24-9 last season, and they're set to play in Detroit for the fourth time in a row in 2026.

Detroit had a down year last year, but their offense remains immensely talented and the team revamped their defense for defensive coordinator Kevin Sheppard. The Lions could be one of the NFC's top dogs this upcoming season, and a win over them and a revenge game for last season could give the Bucs some serious momentum heading into the back half of their year.

Week 17: vs. Los Angeles Rams

Los Angeles Rams defensive end Myles Garrett (95) poses with general manager Les Snead (left) and coach Sean McVay | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Wrestling legend Ric Flair once famously declared that to be the man, you have to beat the man — and the Los Angeles Rams have been the man in the NFC ever since Sean McVay took over their coaching job in 2017.

With a forward-thinking offense under McVay that boasts weapons like Puka Nacua and Davante Adams and a ferocious defense that got even badder with the acquisition of edge rusher Myles Garrett, the Rams could very well be the best team in the NFL heading into 2026. That's bad news for the Bucs, who haven't played very well against them since McVay arrived in Los Angeles.

Tampa Bay is a measly 2-9 against the Rams in their last 11 games, and the Bucs are 2-4 against McVay's Rams. The Rams gave them a brutal beatdown in 2025 in Los Angeles, dispatching the Bucs 34-7, so Tampa Bay has a chance to get revenge and prove itself as one of the NFC's best teams late into the season.

If the Bucs were to beat the Rams in Week 17, they'd have all the momentum in the world for what may be the most important game on their schedule in Week 18 and the playoffs would be firmly in sight.

Week 18: at New Orleans Saints

New Orleans Saints defensive end Chase Young (99) celebrates after a sack against the Atlanta Falcons | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The Bucs would love to avoid winning the NFC South at the buzzer like they have every time they've won the division since 2022, but that same situation might come to pass once again this upcoming season. And if things are down to the wire, this could very well be the deciding game for Tampa Bay's playoff hopes.

The Bucs, the Atlanta Falcons, the Carolina Panthers and the New Orleans Saints are all set to make a run at an NFC South in flux this season, but the Saints showed a lot of promise last year with rookie quarterback Tyler Shough and head coach Kellen Moore in tandem. They added a wide receiver in Jordyn Tyson during this year's NFL Draft, and they shored up their defense by signing players like Kaden Elliss in free agency.

The Saints are perhaps the biggest contender in the division to make that next step, and they stand as the final roadblock on Tampa Bay's 2026 schedule. If it comes down to the wire, the Bucs will have to beat the Saints on the road to secure a playoff spot after missing out last year.

Tampa Bay beat the Panthers on the road in 2023 to win the division, so it would be nothing new for the Bucs. But division games are always tough, and this one could be the most important game Tampa Bay plays next season.

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