How Buccaneers OC Zac Robinson's Playcalling Bucks This NFL Trend

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers hired internally when they needed a new offensive coordinator in 2025, opting to go with Josh Grizzard as their playcaller. That didn't work out well, and with his firing at the end of the season, the Bucs are on to offensive coordinator No. 5 in as many years.

That coordinator is Zac Robinson, who previously piloted the Atlanta Falcons' offense over the last two seasons. Robinson is a student of Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay, and Tampa Bay has run a system reminiscent of his since bringing on Dave Canales in 2023.

That familiarity is nice, but Robinson's playcalling ability and understanding of modern NFL trends have to be up to snuff if he wants to stick around in Tampa Bay.

A former NFL data analyst recently went over an interesting negative trend among all offensive coordinators in the NFL over the past few seasons, and thankfully for the Buccaneers, Robinson appears to be on the good side of it heading into the 2026 season.

Zac Robinson Knows How to Handle 2nd and 10

Atlanta Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson calls a play against the New Orleans Saints in the second quarter | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Former Super Bowl-winning NFL data analyst Ryan Paganetti noted an interesting trend in the NFL — many NFL offensive playcallers prefer to run the ball on 2nd and 10 after throwing an incomplete pass on first down.

As Paganetti notes, throwing the ball on second down after an incompletion on first down drastically increases success, with a 16.6-point increase in success rate percentage, a boost of +0.23 EPA/play and an increase of 6.5 percentage points on the success rate of the entire series.

The good news from the Bucs? Robinson has thrown the most of any offensive coordinator during his tenure in Atlanta, opting to pass 82.9% of the time after these situations.

The NFL’s most common overcorrection:

Running on 2nd and 10 after a 1st down incompletion.

Since 2022, passes in this spot have crushed runs:

+16.6 percentage points in success rate
+0.23 EPA/play
+6.5 percentage points in eventual series success rate

Here are the 2026 play… pic.twitter.com/d1YzTygEjH
— Ryan Paganetti (@RyanPaganetti) July 7, 2026

This statistic is interesting, given Robinson's general philosophy. Robinson operates as a run-heavy offensive coordinator, per SumerSports — he has run the football 45.5% of the time overall during his two years in Atlanta, and he favors the run inside the red zone (54.9%), on first downs (58.5%) and on the goal line (79.3%). Even when Robinson has eight-plus yards to go, he runs the ball 43.8% of the time, a decent amount given the distance.

He does, however, seem to find value in passing while facing 10 yards on second down after an incompletion. He also joins his mentor, Sean McVay, in the top five, with the Los Angeles Rams coming in at No. 4 on the list.

The Buccaneers and head coach Todd Bowles are looking for an offensive coordinator who can keep up with the positive trends, and this is at least one big point in favor of Robinson. There are other things about the way he calls plays, though, like his extensive use of the pistol formation in Atlanta.

The Buccaneers will continue to install Robinson's offense during training camp, which starts on July 28. They'll hope to field a unit much more competitive than the one they fielded in 2025 under offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard.

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