Bucs get surprising playoff percentage update after Rams loss

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers may not have played their best football lately, but the numbers say their season is far from slipping away.

Despite another tough loss, Tampa Bay actually saw its playoff chances increase heading into Week 12.

Thanks to updated simulations from The New York Times and The Athletic, the Buccaneers woke up in a much better position than expected.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive tackle Vita Vea (50) and linebacker SirVocea Dennis (8), linebacker John Bullock (57) — Nov 23, 2025; Inglewood, California, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive tackle Vita Vea (50) walks off the field during halftime with linebacker SirVocea Dennis (8), linebacker John Bullock (57) and safety Tykee Smith (23) against the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images | Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

Buccaneers' playoff chances rise despite recent struggles

The Buccaneers have been dealing with injuries, inconsistency and frustrating stretches on both sides of the ball, so seeing their playoff odds jump naturally comes as a surprise. But the numbers behind the Times and Athletic simulation tool tell the full story.

The New York Times and The Athletic have the Bucs at a seventy eight percent chance of making the playoffs and a seventy-seven percent chance of winning the division.

That swing in Tampa Bay’s favor is largely because the Carolina Panthers, now 6-6, looked completely overwhelmed against the San Francisco 49ers. Carolina’s struggles at quarterback, turnovers and overall offensive production tanked their probability numbers and indirectly elevated Tampa Bay’s. With the NFC South still wide open and nobody pulling ahead convincingly, the Buccaneers remain positioned as the most stable team in the division.

Even with a handful of close losses and several key injuries, Tampa Bay continues to hold key tiebreakers and a manageable remaining schedule. The simulations factor all of that in, which explains why the latest numbers still lean heavily toward the Buccaneers returning to the postseason.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield celebrates with teammates including Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs after the team scored a touchdown during first half action against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Nov 16, 2025 at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Favorable matchups help Tampa Bay

The Buccaneers also have a great chance to strengthen their position this weekend. Tampa Bay returns home to host the three-win Arizona Cardinals, a team that has struggled defensively and has not played well on the road. This sets up as a very winnable matchup for the Buccaneers, especially if Baker Mayfield is healthy enough to play.

Meanwhile, the Panthers face the Los Angeles Rams, one of the NFC’s hottest teams. Los Angeles has found its groove offensively, and Carolina’s defense has shown cracks in recent weeks. If the Rams take care of business, Tampa Bay could gain even more ground in the division without needing outside help.

For a team that has been inconsistent but still competitive, this is a swing week that could define the stretch run. And if Tampa Bay handles its business at home, those playoff odds may only keep climbing.

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