Will Todd Bowles be the Buccaneers' head coach in 2026?

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in a very different place than they started at the beginning of the year, but they're at the very same place they've been the past four seasons — fighting down to the wire for a chance to win the NFC South.

The Bucs have started hot multiple times during head coach Todd Bowles' tenure, only to falter midway through the year — it's happened every year since Bowles took over as head coach in 2022, and the NFC South has come down to the wire in all four of those years. This is, of course, the case in 2025, too, as the Carolina Panthers are 7-7 just like Tampa Bay and could win the NFC South with a sweep over the Bucs.

There is a chance — a good one, even — that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers make the playoffs this year. They need to win two of their next three games in any order, and they need to avoid getting swept by the Carolina Panthers. If they do that, they'll host a home playoff game like they've done for the last four seasons prior.

Is that enough for Todd Bowles, though? With repeated patterns from recent years and a severely struggling Bucs team, many have wondered if time is up for Bowles in Tampa Bay, especially after a heated press conference and a dreary locker room after a 29-28 loss vs. the Falcons. So the question remains — would the Buccaneers really fire Todd Bowles after this season?

What does Todd Bowles need to do to save his job?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach and defensive coordinator Todd Bowles looks on before the game against the Atlanta Falcons | Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Todd Bowles has been in four playoff games as head coach of the Buccaneers, and he's gone 1-3 so far in that span. His best effort was in 2023, when the Bucs made it to the divisional round of the playoffs after beating the Philadelphia Eagles and then losing to the Detroit Lions.

His other two playoff games saw him bounced from the first round — the Bucs were drubbed by the Dallas Cowboys at home in 2022 and lost a close game they probably should have won against the Washington Commanders in 2024, a team they'd already beaten in the regular season.

As a result, it feels like Bowles is on the hot seat in two scenarios. If Bowles misses the playoffs entirely, getting swept by the Carolina Panthers or losing two of the next three games in a scenario that sees the Panthers beat the Seattle Seahawks as well, he is in danger. If he makes the playoffs and loses to the visiting fifth seed, likely one of the Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers or Los Angeles Rams, he'd would also likely be in danger, especially if the Buccaneers get blown out in this game.

It stands to reason, then, that one scenario could save Bowles. If the Buccaneers were to win their first playoff game against an NFC West team that will likely be one of the three best in the NFL, he may earn himself enough grace to get another year at the helm. That might save Bowles' job, but it also poses another question.

Can the Bucs win a playoff game this year?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles on the sidelines during the first half of a game against the Seattle Seahawks | Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

The bad news for Bowles? Almost certainly not.

The Buccaneers have played very bad football since the bye, and even when they were playing good football, they rarely showed the dominance needed for playoff ball. Tampa Bay's average margin of victory this year in seven wins is by 6.14 points — this includes a 23-3 win over the New Orleans Saints, the team's largest margin of victory, and if you take that out of the occasion, they won their other six games by an average of just 3.83 points. The Bucs rank 30th of 32 teams in average margin of victory among wins, beating only the New York Jets (3.67) and Tennessee Titans (1.50) in that metric.

Of all current NFC playoff teams, the Buccaneers not only have the lowest offensive EPA/play, they're also the only team with an offensive EPA/play in the negative, per SumerSports (-0.023). Their defensive EPA/play is ranked fifth of seven, but since the bye week, they're dead last by a massive margin at -0.124 EPA/play. Simply put, they would far and away be the worst NFL team in the NFC playoffs, and they'd potentially be the worst team in the entire NFL playoffs as well (they rank 13th of 14 in offense EPA/play and 11th of 14 in defensive EPA/play across the entire year).

Anything can happen in the NFL, so the Buccaneers could absolutely steal a win at home in the playoffs if they even make it. But there's nothing about this Bucs team to convince anyone that they'd be able to push past an elite team in the first round of the NFL playoffs, and as a result, it's looking like Todd Bowles' future is trending grim.

We'll have to see what happens after this season. But right now, it's looking like Bowles will need a playoff win to definitively save his job with the Buccaneers — if his team can even get there.

The Buccaneers play the first big game in their quest to the playoffs on the road against the Panthers at 1 p.m. this Sunday.

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