Should Cardinals Tank for Caleb Williams?
If you're an Arizona Cardinals fan, you've likely heard your fair share of quarterback talk this offseason.
Once Kyler Murray went down with a torn ACL in Week 12 of the 2022 regular season, questions polluted the outlook of his short and long-term future with the organization. Those were only amplified with Kliff Kingsbury and Steve Keim (the two men who pushed for Arizona to draft him just one year removed from moving up to take Josh Rosen in the top ten) were out of the picture.
The new regime of HC Jonathan Gannon and GM Monti Ossenfort have shown their support for Murray in a variety of ways, whether that be over the microphone during press conferences or showing up to Oklahoma's unveiling of Murray's Heisman statue prior to their spring game.
Nobody knows when Murray will truly return, though Cardinals insider Kyle Odegard has reported the quarterback is very on track to return earlier than anticipated - though Arizona wants to take their time bringing Murray back (more info here).
There's been talk around Murray and the current slew of backups that will fight to be on the field until Arizona has their franchise quarterback ready. Passers such as Colt McCoy, David Blough and rookie Clayton Tune will have all of training camp and preseason to prove themselves worthy of being the temporary starter.
Yet there's also been talk on a quarterback who isn't on Arizona's roster - or even playing in the NFL.
USC quarterback Caleb Williams has garnered hype that has only been matched by college prospects such as Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning and Trevor Lawrence. Williams is capable of making throws at every level and when it comes to weaknesses, you'll have to truly nitpick to find some.
Though the term is often thrown around too often in today's game, Williams is considered a generational quarterback talent - one the Cardinals could very well find themselves in position to select in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Arizona is considered by many to have the worst roster in the league, and it will take time for Gannon and his relatively inexperienced staff to settle into their roles in the desert in Year 1.
The Cardinals also own another first-round pick via the Houston Texans, who are also expected to be near the bottom of the standings. There's a very realistic possibility the Cardinals could find themselves with the top two picks when the regular season concludes.
It's tough to project anything at this point in the season, though if any team has "the best odds" at grabbing Williams, it would be Arizona.
The largest obstacle standing in the way for the Cardinals potentially moving on from Murray is the massive five-year, $230 million extension.
In Bleacher Report's case for Arizona to tank for Williams, they say Murray's contract is very movable.
"Despite signing a five-year, $230.5 million extension before last season, the Cardinals can cut or trade the '19 No. 1 overall pick and actually save money toward the '24 salary cap. In a potential trade, Arizona can offload $38.9 million after the calendar turns to June, according to Over The Cap. Whereas an outright release with a June 1 designation still saves the team $3.6 million," wrote Brent Sobleski.
"Even if the the latter manifests itself, the remaining portion of Murray's '24 figure plus an incoming No. 1 overall pick's initial presents a salary-cap increase of approximately $4 million beyond what Cardinals accounting already expects.
"Arizona made a similar decision four years ago when the front office decided Murray was a better prospect than Josh Rosen, whom the team selected with the 10th overall pick a year prior. If Ossenfort and Gannon determine that Williams is superior to Murray, the former is the right choice for a team in the midst of a massive rebuild."
The idea of tanking isn't something Gannon and his staff are into. He's been very adamant that the Cardinals will win football games in 2023, though time will tell exactly how many Arizona can pull off. Their over/under for wins in sportsbooks sits around four.
Murray himself has flashed the talent everyone saw at Oklahoma, though many feel his shortcomings have overshadowed those plays. His return from injury will dictate where exactly this conversation goes.
And that's where this topic remains just a talking point in barbershops and sports bars around the Valley: The Cardinals won't know what they want to do in the future until they see Murray on the field.
Even when Murray returns, you have to remember most athletes don't return to true form until after a full season is played on the newly recovered ACL. Murray will also be in a new offensive system under first-time OC Drew Petzing and won't have DeAndre Hopkins at his disposal.
No pun intended, but the cards aren't exactly stacked in Murray's favor.
Short of a superhero effort from Murray upon return, the Caleb Williams cloud will hang over the Cardinals until the very moment the No. 1 pick is made.
Trading Murray's contract would be difficult, especially if he doesn't look like the same player he once was. Yet there's always going to be a team or two that believes they're just a quarterback away from winning a Super Bowl - see recently the Los Angeles Rams and New York Jets. Interest will be there.
In terms of the actual tanking, Arizona just might be bad enough to where losing on purpose won't be needed. There's very little expectations that anything transpires from this season, and the Cardinals' efforts that so clearly prioritized the future suggest they know sometimes things will get ugly before it gets better.
Acquiring the No. 1 pick is a win-win, regardless of how Murray looks next season. Should the organization decide to move on, they know they hold the keys to potentially the next great quarterback to touch NFL grass.
If Murray impresses enough, they can take another high caliber player or auction off the pick for what would likely be a historic haul, given the hype that Williams has received.
Is Williams a possibility? At this point in time, it would be wise for the Cardinals to keep all options on the table.
For a rebuilding team, starting fresh with a new quarterback makes absolute sense. The new regime isn't married to Murray (despite their public affection for him) and the team will have to weigh if they believe the younger/cheaper Williams bodes better for their future than Murray.
Who knows how the Cardinals and Murray will look. Also, who knows how Williams will look this upcoming season?
Those are questions and conversations that can only take place in the future, when we have updated eyes and opinions on both passers.
Ossenfort and company have shown they're hear to build a football team the smart way. We'll see what that entails when push comes to shove, though conversations taking place between now and then will only grow with excitement and anticipation.
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