Chargers vs. Broncos predictions get rare upset picks

The Los Angeles Chargers aren't exactly favored to beat the Denver Broncos in Week 18 while Justin Herbert watches Trey Lance direct the offense on the road in the season finale.

Those Chargers are massive underdogs in the AFC West clash as the 13-3 Broncos look to fight for AFC playoff seeding and the visitors just look to stay healthy.

Understandably, there aren’t too many NFL predictions out there suggesting the Chargers can pull off the upset.

But there are some.

Chargers upset Broncos in NFL Week 18 picks

Over at Sports Illustrated, John Pluym is the only NFL analyst of the six names polled who actually picked the Chargers to upset the Broncos.

There are other upset picks floating out there, but they loop in odds and spreads, not outright picks.

.@GregCosell takes a closer look at how the Chargers defense matches up against the Broncos#BoltUp

Live on ESPN2 & Streaming on ESPN+@GregCosell | @DariusJButler | Sal Paolantonio pic.twitter.com/jJQyYnRLbu
— NFL Matchup on ESPN (@NFLMatchup) January 2, 2026

At USA Today, for example, Christopher Bumbaca writes that the Chargers aren’t going to go down by nearly two touchdowns: “The Broncos don't blow teams out. Even if that other team is starting Trey Lance at quarterback.”

Hey, it’s better than nothing, right?

Why Chargers will and won’t upset Broncos

Lance is probably going to have a brutal time on the road in Denver against a Broncos pass-rush headed up by Nik Bonitto and his 12.5 sacks over 16 games.

But it’s not impossible.

Lance has looked good in spot duty for the Chargers dating back to the summer, hence his running away with the backup quarterback job behind Herbert.

Speaking of running, Lance is mobile and the fact there isn’t a lot of film on him within the Chargers offense could create an element of surprise that plays a part in the outcome in Denver.

Jim Harbaugh said there could be some usual #Chargers starters who dress for Sunday's game vs. Broncos but fill a "backup role."
— Daniel Popper (@danielrpopper) January 2, 2026

Granted, Jim Harbaugh hasn’t fully revealed just how many starters won’t play against the Broncos. But defensive coordinator Jesse Minter tends to drum up nice schemes that produce strong outings, hence his being so prominent in head-coaching buzz.

Back near the start of the season, the Chargers held Bo Nix to a 14-of-25 line with 153 yards and just one score in a Los Angeles win. Herbert needed 47 attempts to throw for 300 yards with one score and pick, so it’s not like the passing game was lighting things up.

A chance at playing the spoiler against a rival, completing a sweep of the entire AFC West and a strong running game complemented by defense could always produce an upset.

Is it necessary? No. But Week 18 is always a weird one, so don’t totally count out the Chargers.

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