The Analytics Are Wrong: ESPN’s Disrespectful Projections for Akheem Mesidor

The sack total projections for Akheem Mesidor appear low considering the Chargers' revamped offense and their schedule. Explore how he can beat the projections.

Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The Los Angeles Chargers 2026 schedule has just been released, the social media team dropped another awesome release video, Jim Harbaugh is dropping viral-worthy quotes, and Justin Herbert is in Europe. The Chargers are deep into off-season mode.

This time of year there is not much news to analyze or camp performances to discuss. Jim Harbaugh and Mike McDaniel forming the perfect odd couple to overhaul the offense is presumably a great story but we have not seen much of it yet.

Following the schedule release, discussion and debate have frequently touched on the Chargers rest disadvantage this upcoming season where they will face four teams coming off of byes. All of these topics are normal to cover in the off-season.

Finally, the analytics community has broken the ice and brought forward projections for the top rookies. Mike Clay from ESPN put together a top five list for most of the major statistical categories for rookies heading into 2026. Let's explore what projections he has for Chargers first-round pick Akheem Mesidor.

Akheem Mesidor's 2026 projected sack total

Mike Clay has Chargers rookie Akheem projected to finish the 2026 season with 4.9 sacks, fourth among rookies. Mesidor's projection ranks him behind David Bailey, Malachi Lawrence and Rueben Bain Jr. Clay uses data points that indicate rookies have been less impactful as pass rushers over the past few seasons and that expectations should be maintained at appropriate levels.

Clay also notes that the projections are his own and he determines them by utilizing both qualitative and quantitative reasoning. His projections for Mesidor may be reasonable but there is more room for production on the Chargers defense for the rookie.

How Mesidor can exceed analytical based projections

Akheem Mesidor | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Akheem Mesidor will be stepping into the Chargers' third edge rusher role. The role may not afford as many opportunities as a three-down starting edge rusher might have but he could quite easily exceed projections.

The Chargers offense will be much more high-powered in 2026. It is no secret, Mike McDaniel will be bringing a different level of offensive competency to the table as a play caller and offensive designer. With a more high-powered offense comes with opponents trying to keep pace or catch up. If the Chargers are leading or simply proving effective at putting points on the board, opponents will respond to keep pace, leading to more known passing downs for the Chargers defense to attack.

Mesidor caught some negative heat for being an older prospect but in the case of immediate production, Mesidor's maturity as a pass rusher and player will reduce the slow start most rookies experience.

Los Angeles also made several additions to increase the size of the interior defensive line with free agent Dalvin Tomlinson and fifth-round rookie Nick Barrett. The additional beef in the middle and pocket pushing presence will also reduce escape routes for opposing quarterbacks.

The Chargers schedule itself lends to facing more passing attacks. Los Angeles, for the most part, avoided all the cold-weather teams on their schedule late in the season where weather becomes more of a factor.

Mesidor will be the third edge rusher behind Khalil Mack and Tuli Tulipulotu. But he will still get ample opportunities on the field and with his relentless motor, could easily exceed the five sack projection in his rookie season.