Chiefs Over/Under Totals For 2023-2024 Season: Part 1
The Kansas City Chiefs are about to begin their journey toward a run-it-back campaign as the team tries to defend its Super Bowl championship for the 2023-2024 season. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the reigning MVP and will hope to have another season that would put him in that conversation once again.
With another NFL season in mind, let’s take a look at some of the numbers the oddsmakers are thinking the Chiefs are aiming to hit this season.
Chiefs win total: 11.5
The Chiefs have won 12 or more games every season Mahomes has been the starting quarterback. Unless there’s some reason to suggest there could be a significant drop-off in a team that was just the No. 1 team in the AFC, led by the best coach and quarterback in the league, then I’d take the over on this one.
Mark’s Pick: OVER 11.5 wins
Patrick Mahomes passing yards: 4,725
Mahomes threw for 5,250 yards last season with a nearly full turnover in the wide receiver room. It helps when you have the greatest tight end in the NFL to lean on, but Mahomes can seemingly make it work with anyone playing at a skill position. While it makes sense there could be some sort of drop after such a strong season, Mahomes is one of three quarterbacks in NFL history to throw for multiple 5,000-yard seasons. It’s never out of the question for him to go off with a talent of his nature. Give me the over.
Mark’s Pick: OVER 4,725 yards passing
Patrick Mahomes passing touchdowns: 36.5
Mahomes has thrown for over 36 touchdowns in four of his five years starting in the NFL. Again, there could be some sort of touchdown regression here. There is a possibility the Chiefs get a few more rushing touchdowns inside the five-yard line instead of having Mahomes throw underhand passes to running backs or tight ends cutting behind the offensive line. However, there’s no guarantee of that under head coach Andy Reid’s direction. Mahomes could see those touchdown numbers in the 40 range once again this season.
Mark’s Pick: OVER 36.5 passing touchdowns
Travis Kelce receiving yards: 1,124.5
Kelce has become one of the most reliable receiving targets in the NFL throughout the course of his career. He has reached 1,000 yards receiving in a record-breaking seven consecutive seasons. Kelce has reached 1,125 receiving yards on the nose during the 2016 and 2021 seasons. He has been at or over that number every year Mahomes has been his quarterback. Even though he's getting older and may be more susceptible to injury as he ages, it’s hard to think he won’t continue to hit these numbers with Mahomes until proven otherwise.
Mark’s Pick: OVER 1,124.5 yards receiving.
Travis Kelce receiving touchdowns: 9.5
This touchdown over/under seems about right. Kelce has hit 10 or more touchdowns three times during Mahomes’s five years as a starter. Before Mahomes, Kelce never had a 10-touchdown season, so this one isn’t a slam dunk by any means. However, with the relatively younger and inexperienced wide receiver group, I’m expecting Kelce to get to that 10-touchdown threshold once again this season.
Mark’s Pick: OVER 9.5 touchdowns
Marquez Valdes-Scantling receiving yards: 650.5
Wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling is coming into his second season with the Chiefs and his sixth in the NFL. In his first year in Kansas City, Valdes-Scantling was able to have his second season with over 650 yards receiving. He finished the season with 687 yards, good for second-best in his career. His career has proven he is a hit-and-miss receiver where he can go a couple of games with one catch for 10 yards and then break out for a game with something like 8 catches for 115 yards. Being one of the veteran receivers in the room should give him plenty of chances to get to that 650 plateau. I’m banking that he stays healthy enough to play in all 17 games and will hit the over this season.
Mark’s Pick: OVER 650.5 receiving yards
Marquez Valdes-Scantling receiving touchdowns: 3.5
In his first year with the Chiefs, Valdes-Scantling had two receiving touchdowns during the regular season. He matched that total in the playoffs. Will the playoff production push for more scoring opportunities this season, or will it be more of the same? He’s only been over three touchdowns in a season once in his career, and that was when he scored six touchdowns in 2020. Valdes-Scantling is not prone to scoring a lot of touchdowns, but I do think he will get open a few more times on some deep throws from Mahomes this season and will be able to get over three touchdowns for the second time in his career.
Mark’s Pick: OVER 3.5 touchdowns
That’s a full seven-for-seven on overs for the team and some veteran players on the roster. Next week, I’ll dive into the over/under numbers from some of the younger members of the squad. Will they be able to match the potential production of the veterans? Keep an eye out for the continuation of this series.
