Expert Breaks Down Chiefs Game-by-Game Win Probabilities

ESPN analyst sees big years from Karlaftis, Worthy, but even less production from Kelce.

Jan 18, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) meets with Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) after a 2025 AFC divisional round game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Patrick Mahomes has started 133 NFL games and Jared Goff is the only quarterback to beat him on multiple occasions without a loss.

Mike Clay sees Goff improving that mark to 3-0 in another epic showdown on Oct. 12 at Arrowhead Stadium. ESPN’s fantasy expert has released his annual passion project, Mike Clay’s 2025 NFL Projection Guide, using his model to predict statistics and outcomes for the full NFL season.

Goff led the Lions to a 21-20 upset at Kansas City to begin the 2023 NFL season. He also outlasted Mahomes, 54-51, in a Monday night showdown at the L.A. Coliseum in 2018. And this season, Clay gives the Chiefs just a 37-percent chance of winning their third meeting.

Clay also sees Lamar Jackson and the Ravens avenging their 2024 season-opening loss in Kansas City, giving the Chiefs just a 41 percent chance of victory, and another loss in Kansas City’s Week 9 return to Buffalo (37 percent). Meanwhile, the Week 2 Super Bowl rematch with the Eagles in Kansas City is a toss-up, based on Clay’s model.

But set aside those four games and Clay sees the Chiefs with at least a 51-percent chance of winning each of the remaining 13 contests, including important victories over the Chargers, Commanders and Broncos, as well as a Thanksgiving triumph at Dallas. He projects 10.0 wins for Kansas City and the No. 3 seed in the AFC playoffs, assuming the NFL doesn’t change the seeding procedures at this week’s league meetings.

Interestingly, Clay doesn’t project eye-popping offensive numbers for any of the Chiefs’ skill players, especially Travis Kelce. Clay projects only 674 receiving yards for the future Hall of Famer, which would rank as the lowest in his career since he became a starter in 2014, and just 164 fantasy points, largely on the strength of five touchdown catches. Kelce posted 195 fantasy points last season in what many considered a down year.

While Xavier Worthy (70 receptions, 916 yards, seven touchdowns) is projected to lead the team with 220 fantasy points, and Rashee Rice will register 84 catches for 946 yards and six TDs, the team won’t exactly solve its protection issues. Clay’s model shows the Chiefs allowing 34 sacks of Mahomes, only two fewer than the career-most 36 they allowed last year.

Defensively, five players will reach at least three sacks: George Karlaftis (9.8), Chris Jones (7.9), Mike Danna (4.0), Charles Omenihu (3.8) and Drue Tranquill (3.0).    

Here are Clay’s game-by-game Chiefs win probabilities.

Week	Opponent	Win probability	Score (KC-Opp)
1	at L.A. Chargers (Brazil)	60 percent	26.4-23.5
2	PHILADELPHIA	50 percent	25.0-25.2
3	at N.Y. Giants	65 percent	23.2-19.2
4	BALTIMORE	41 percent	24.4-27.0
5	at Jacksonville	68 percent	25.8-20.7
6	DETROIT	37 percent	23.1-26.7
7	LAS VEGAS	77 percent	26.7-18.7
8	WASHINGTON	61 percent	28.2-25.2
9	at Buffalo	37 percent	24.5-28.1
11	at Denver	51 percent	22.6-22.4
12	INDIANAPOLIS	68 percent	25.0-20.0
13	at Dallas	58 percent	25.8-23.4
14	HOUSTON	58 percent	23.1-20.8
15	L.A. CHARGERS	64 percent	26.9-22.9
16	at Tennessee	72 percent	26.4-20.2
17	DENVER	59 percent	23.8-21.3
18	at Las Vegas	70 percent	25.6-19.9

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