Why the Chiefs Are Expected to Return to the Pinnacle of the NFL

For a minute there, it didn't look like there were any great teams in the 2025 NFL season. Most of the top contenders coming into the year had shown some glaring weaknesses, leaving the door open for new challengers to arise in a new parity-driven league. After just five weeks, there wasn't a single undefeated team left in the standings.

The last time that happened so quickly was over a decade ago, in 2014. The reigning Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles and the Buffalo Bills both lost in Week 5, exposing their holes. The Baltimore Ravens have been devastated by injuries and are working to climb out of a 1-5 hole.

Similarly, the Kansas City Chiefs struggled through absences in the early season. With Rashee Rice starting the year with a six-game suspension, this team was completely rattled when Xavier Worthy dislocated his shoulder in the opener. That led to a 1-2 start for KC this year. However, they've bounced back in a big way.

Kansas City Chiefs, NFL, Buffalo Bills, Patrick Mahomes — Jan 26, 2025; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) reacts as he takes off his helmet after defeating the Buffalo Bills during the AFC Championship game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Chiefs can fill the void

Since getting Xavier Worthy back in Week 4, the Kansas City Chiefs have gone 4-1. They've also been undefeated with Rashee Rice in the lineup, going 2-0 since his return. However, KC has yet to notch a true statement win.

They did manhandle the Detroit Lions 30-17 in Week 6, but they were facing a shorthanded defense due to injuries. Aside from that game, they've coasted to wins over another depleted team in the Baltimore Ravens, the Las Vegas Raiders, and the Washington Commanders without Jayden Daniels. Needless to say, it hasn't been the most impressive slate, despite their dominance in these games.

However, they've still earned the benefit of the doubt heading into their upcoming clash with Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. Four out of five editors on NFL.com's panel picked KC, with an average margin of victory of 3.25 points. Dan Parr predicted a 31-27 victory for the Chiefs:

What if the chiefs beat the bills in the regular season so we beat them in the playoffs pic.twitter.com/eC8t4WeVE7
— BillsOnReal (@BillsOnReal) October 31, 2025

"A clear pattern has emerged between these two AFC heavyweights, with the Bills beating the Chiefs in four straight regular-season games and Kansas City eliminating Buffalo in four straight playoff matchups. I think the streak — at least the regular-season one — snaps this time around. The Chiefs are the only team with a top-five total offense and defense right now. Patrick Mahomes has clearly been the best QB in the NFL since Week 4."

"Meanwhile, shockingly, Josh Allen has the league's lowest passer rating on deep passes in 2025 (29.4, min. 15 deep attempts) and Buffalo lost at home in its only game against a team with a winning record (Patriots in Week 5). It gets worse, as the Bills will be without DT Ed Oliver, the engine of their defense, as he recovers from a torn bicep suffered in last week's win over the Panthers. The reigning MVP is capable of putting the team on his back, even against the toughest competition, but I see an advantage for the Chiefs that is too significant for me to ignore."

If Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs can "big bro" Josh Allen and the Bills again in this premier matchup, Kansas City should be viewed as the title favorites this year, at least out of the AFC.

To get all of our key Chiefs' picks in every game this season, follow us on X (Twitter) @KCChiefsOnSI and @Domminchella.

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