4-Letter Word: Here’s What DVOA Says About Andy Reid, Chiefs

KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- If Google Translate could transform DVOA, EPA and other analytics terms into common English, it would say this: The Chiefs will still make the playoffs.

With seven games left, however, things don’t look good. They’d not only be out of the playoff picture if the postseason began this week, they’ve also fallen to No. 9 in the conference. Only the top seven AFC teams get in.

andy rei — Nov 16, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid before the game against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

But as they look ahead, the Chiefs (5-5) can take solace in math and history.

What is DVOA and why is it important to Chiefs this season?

DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) measures efficiency in teams, units and players against a baseline, taking every play in context of league average, situation and opponent. However, there isn’t a calculus requirement to understand what it says about the 2025 Chiefs.

Take it from the brain of the person who conceived DVOA, Aaron Schatz.

The flip of this year's bad teams with good records is Kansas City. The Chiefs are now the fourth-best 5-5 team in DVOA history.

The top two, 2006 Eagles and 2015 Seahawks, finished 10-6 and made the playoffs.

No. 3, 1997 Cowboys, collapsed late in the season.
— Aaron Schatz 🏈 (@ASchatzNFL) November 18, 2025

The head coach of those 2006 Eagles, Andy Reid, also coaches the 2025 Chiefs. So, he knows a few things about finishing seasons. He also held the team’s reins in 2015, the last time Kansas City was 5-5, steering that club to a playoff berth.

andy reid, jon runya — Dec. 25, 2006; Irving, TX, USA; Philadelphia Eagles offensive tackle (69) Jon Runyan talks with head coach Andy Reid during the game against the Dallas Cowboys at Texas Stadium in Irving, Texas. Philadelphia defeated Dallas 23-7. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images © 2006 Mark J. Rebilas | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

He may not have a degree in advanced NFL analytics, but Reid clearly knows how to focus his team on what’s next: Another AFC showdown, against Indianapolis (8-2) on Sunday (12 p.m. CT, CBS/KCTV, Channel 5, 96.5 The Fan).

“I mentioned that to them after the game,” Reid said Monday afternoon. “What can you do? You can get yourself ready to play Indianapolis. That's what you can do. Everything else is involved with a crystal ball, but you can take care of today and tomorrow and the following day. And let's start there.”

A fourth-and-17 to save their season

That doesn’t change the feeling that the Chiefs seem to be facing a fourth-and-17 to save their season. But keep in mind, Patrick Mahomes has already converted one of those this season, and an example of why people aren’t driving nails into coffins at Arrowhead Stadium.

rashee ric — Nov 2, 2025; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice (4) makes a catch in the second half against the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

“Definitely, there's a ton to play for still,” center Creed Humphrey told OnSI Tuesday. “And for us, we got a really good opponent coming up this week. They've been playing really good ball. For us, it's about focusing on how we improve and what we can do to make our team better.”

And if they’re finally able to get over that frustrating hump, especially winning the elusive one-score game, there’s also a feeling that the Chiefs could see some of these teams again – in addition to the three division rematches left on their schedule.

“You get to play some teams twice every year,” Humphrey said, “and it's hard to beat a team twice. So, for us, it's just about not looking in the past too much. It's about just focusing on what you can do that week to get better.”

creed humphre — Oct 12, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs center Creed Humphrey (52) takes the field prior to a game against the Detroit Lions at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Chiefs Kingdom, what’s next on the docket? Don’t miss a moment of the best and most thorough information. Register for our FREE Chiefs newsletter, arriving in your email each morning. SIGN UP HERE NOW.