How Week 17 Results Could Affect Chiefs’ Draft Position

Strength of schedule likely to play role in breaking potential three-way tie.

Jan 13, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco (10) celebrates his touchdown scored against the Miami Dolphins with tight end Travis Kelce (87) during the second half of the 2024 AFC wild card game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

KANSAS CITY, Mo. – Twas the night before Christmas, when all through Chiefs Realm…

Neither Mahomes nor Minshew were starting, with Oladokun at the helm.

The DVOA odds for No. 1 pick from @ftnfantasy are much tighter (reflecting KC's QB situation):
Giants 35%
Browns 31.9%#Raiders 31.8%
Jets 1.2% https://t.co/Tp066VAsbp

— Josh Dubow (@JoshDubowAP) December 23, 2025

Kansas City’s shocking quarterback situation has affected more than the Chiefs. It’s affected the odds for the No. 1 draft choice. With only two weeks to go, all eyes are on Arrowhead Stadium Christmas night (7:15 p.m. CT, Prime Video, NBC/KSHB-TV, Channel 41, 96.5 The Fan).

Some will tune in to see if Denver (12-3) can take the first important step toward securing the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs or the AFC West title. The Broncos, however, get nothing but a lump of coal unless they beat Chris Oladokun and the Chiefs (6-9).

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Chris Oladokun (19) is sacked during the fourth quarter against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, Dec. 21, 2025. | Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

“It’d be a great Christmas, that's for sure,” Oladokun said Tuesday. “It'd make the mood a lot lighter at home after the game. But we know we're facing a great opponent in Denver, one of the best teams in the league right now, not only defensively, but offensively as well.

“So, we've definitely got our hands full. And I feel like we got a good plan to go out there and spoil that on Christmas.”

Nov 16, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos linebacker Nik Bonitto (15) tackles Kansas City Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt (29) carries the ball in the third quarter at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Should Kansas City spoil Denver’s Christmas, the Chiefs obviously won’t help their cause for a higher draft choice. They’d draft at No. 12 if the season had ended last week.

But the season has two more weeks. Here’s how NFL results could affect their draft status in Week 17.

Remember, draft positioning is based on 1) league standings and 2) easier strength of schedule. The teams with the lowest winning percentages draft highest, obviously, but the tiebreaker goes to those who played the easiest schedules.

Nov 16, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Kansas City Chiefs safety Chamarri Conner (27) sacks Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) during the first quarter of the game at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Rams at Falcons (Monday, 7:15 p.m. CT)

Atlanta (6-9) will improve its strength of schedule simply by showing up against the Rams (11-4). But the Falcons close the year with New Orleans (5-10). Currently, the Falcons (.502) have a slight advantage over Kansas City (.512) in the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker.

And because Kansas City has a slightly easier final two games (Denver and the Raiders combine for 14 wins), the Chiefs figure to finish the season very close to Atlanta in strength of schedule. So, this one is easy. For a higher draft pick, the Chiefs want the Falcons to mirror their result.

If Kansas City wins Christmas night, fans rooting for a higher Chiefs pick want Atlanta to win. If the Chiefs lose to the Broncos, those fans should root for the Rams.

Dec 21, 2025; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7) takes a hit from Arizona Cardinals safety Budda Baker (3) during the second half at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images | Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images

Tampa Bay at Miami (Sunday, 12 p.m. CT)

Like the Falcons and Chiefs, the Dolphins also have a 6-9 record. Miami, which plays its first game since benching starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, meets the 7-8 Buccaneers. The Dolphins (.490) have a lower strength of schedule than Atlanta and Kansas City, but their final two games – including the 12-3 Patriots to close the year – are much tougher, mathematically.

Dec 15, 2025; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Miami Dolphins running back De'Von Achane (28) moves with the ball in the fourth quarter against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

That means Chiefs fans wanting to pick closer to the top of the draft should root for the Dolphins finishing the season with a better record or a tougher strength of schedule than Kansas City. And similar to the Falcons game, those fans should cheer for the Dolphins to have the same result as the Chiefs.

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