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Using RAS to Predict Colts Draft Picks
The secret to predicting who the Indianapolis Colts value in the NFL Draft is to identify the elite athletes.
It is no secret that the Indianapolis Colts love to draft high-level athletes with elite traits. General manager Chris Ballard echoed that sentiment in a 2022 episode of “With the Next Pick.”
“I want to make sure we’re getting the best guys with traits,” Ballard told his scouts. “Let’s bet on the traits. Bet on high-end, high-end traits.”
As the Colts go through the draft process and establish grades on players, how can fans narrow down which players the Colts may have their eye on from an athleticism standpoint? Look no further than a player’s Relative Athletic Score (RAS).
RAS is a system created by Kent Lee Platte that tracts various metrics to give a player an aggregate score of their athletic ability relative to their respected position. The categories determining a RAS are size, explosiveness, speed, and agility.
Multiple measurements/tests are assigned to each category – for example, height, weight, and bench press are under the size category – and given a score based on past results of these tests by other players at the position. The scores of all tests are then tabulated together to produce a final RAS.
The system includes data from as far back as 1987, making it a comprehensive look at where draft prospects stack up athletically at their position. Players are given a RAS when they are draftees and an all-time RAS as more draft classes are added over the years. Providing an all-time RAS reveals where these players rank athletically, even after they enter the NFL.
Here are the RAS of all Colts’ draft picks since Ballard took over as general manager in 2017. As the years have passed, Ballard and the Colts front office have made drafting high-level athletes an even greater priority. Green (10.00-8.00) signifies an elite to great athlete. Yellow (7.99-5.00) represents a good to average athlete. Red (4.99-0.00) indicates a below-average to poor athlete.
2017
The 2017 draft is an outlier, as Ballard joined the Colts in January of that year. He was not working with his current front office staff and instead relied on the holdovers from the Ryan Grigson years. The Colts still took a couple of great athletes (Marlon Mack, Tarell Basham) but ended up with mostly solid athletes in this class. The only player remaining on the Colts roster from this draft class is Grover Stewart.
2018
2018 was the first draft Ballard had the likes of Ed Dodds and Morocco Brown on his staff. The obvious get from this class was Quenton Nelson, an elite athlete in his own right. Braden Smith and Zaire Franklin are also players with high RAS who have gone on to have stellar careers in Indy.
2019
The 2019 draft class was the first under Ballard in which most players ranked as elite to great athletes with RAS. Unfortunately for the Colts, this did not lead to many from this class sticking in Indy long-term. E.J. Speed is the only player remaining on the Colts roster from this class.
2020
2020 was a weird year due to the pandemic happening after the NFL Combine. But that did not stop the Colts from acquiring elite athletes and difference makers, such as Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr. Four of the Colts' draft picks from this class have signed extensions with Indy.
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2021
The 2021 draft class was the fewest picks of any year in the Ballard era. However, elite athletes like Kwity Paye and Will Fries proved to be solid starters for the Colts. Dayo Odeyingbo was expected to have an elite RAS had he not torn his Achilles before the NFL Combine.
2022
2022 is when the Colts went all-in on drafting elite athletes. Not a single draft pick scored a RAS lower than 9.34 (Drew Ogletree), with all draftees possessing high-level traits. Jelani Woods, the Colts' third-round selection, produced a RAS of 10.00, making him the most athletic tight end prospect in NFL history up to that point.
2023
The Colts took the same approach in 2023 by drafting another incredibly athletic class. Anthony Richardson and JuJu Brents posted the highest and fourth-highest RAS, respectively, in the history of their positions. Only three of the Colts' 12 draft picks had a RAS lower than 9.00, and no player was lower than 8.48.
What Does This Mean for 2024?
Looking at the 2024 draft class, if a player is not an elite athlete, they likely will not be drafted by the Colts. Ballard and the Colts have raised their athletic threshold for players over the past couple of seasons, with every draft pick registering as an elite to great athlete. The Colts believe a player's athleticism determines their floor and gives them a better chance of hitting on these prospects.
Going into the 2024 NFL Draft, the consensus needs for the Colts are at cornerback, wide receiver, and safety. Players like Toldeo's Quinyon Mitchell, LSU's Brian Thomas Jr., Texas' Xavier Worthy, and Utah's Cole Bishop are all tremendous athletes with high RAS, fill a need, and would likely start for the Colts Day 1. Players like Louisville's Jarvis Brownlee Jr., USC's Tahj Washington, and Minnesota's Tyler Nubin have all produced low RAS and are unlikely to be high on the Colts' draft board.
As long as Ballard is the general manager of the Colts, Indy will always go after elite athletes in the draft. The amount of success the Colts have will be determined by the ability of these players to translate their athleticism into production on the field.
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