Colts vs. Titans Week 3 Best Bets: Back Taylor, Fade Ward

The Indianapolis Colts face off against the Tennessee Titans in Week 3 — here's the best bets the books have to offer.

Sep 14, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) celebrates with his teammates after rushing for a touchdown during a game against the Denver Broncos at Lucas Oil Stadium at Lucas Oil Stadium. | Grace Hollars-USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

Week 3 Indianapolis Colts player props are live, and it’s time to break down betting angles for Sunday’s AFC South matchup against the Tennessee Titans. The approach this week is the same as last—look at Shane Steichen’s mindset, project how Tennessee adjusts after its Week 2 loss to Los Angeles, and identify where the props market has left value on the table.

Last week, our methodology delivered a 5-0 sweep. We cashed Bo Nix Under 230.5 passing yards, J.K. Dobbins Over 46.5 rushing, Jonathan Taylor Over 89.5 all-purpose yards, Taylor Over 77.5 rushing yards, and Taylor Over 19.5 carries. The formula worked: look at how coaches adapt, weigh the numbers, and find soft lines. Week 3 sets up similarly.

Let’s start back with Taylor. Steichen’s likely mindset after Taylor’s monster 215-yard showing is simple—keep feeding him the football until someone proves they can stop it. Taylor’s rushing line is posted at Over 89.5 yards (-111), and it’s worth backing for a second straight week. He’s cleared that number in four of his last five games, and the last time he faced Tennessee, he gashed them for 218 yards on the ground.

Jonathan Taylor again from 70 yards out! 🔥

📺: #TENvsIND on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/IuGb4jFfsu

— NFL (@NFL) December 22, 2024

Taylor’s 313 all-purpose yards through two games lead the NFL, and that pace projects to 2,660.5 yards for the season. That would rank as the third-highest single-season mark in league history. It’s too early to crown records, but what stands out is the consistency. Taylor doesn’t look like a back who’s slowing down—he looks like a back cementing his legacy in real time.

Another player the market hasn’t fully adjusted to is rookie tight end Tyler Warren. Because Warren is still early in his NFL career, his props remain undervalued. Through two weeks, he’s exceeded his lines by an average of 38.5 yards and has topped 75 yards in both games.

Warren missed Wednesday’s practice with a toe injury, and oddsmakers have kept his line modest as a result. His Week 3 prop is set at Over 44.5 receiving yards (-111). This is the exact type of situation where bettors can grab value. If you move early, before practice reports confirm he’s a full participant, the line could end up being one of the softer spots on the slate.

Tyler Warren is the 1st Tight End in NFL History to Record 75+ Receiving Yards in EACH of his FIRST 2 Career Games..

Indianapolis got a STEAL with the 14th overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. pic.twitter.com/bvk9nvkmyg

— Austin Abbott (@AustinAbbottFF) September 15, 2025

From what we’ve seen, Warren isn’t the type of player to let a minor injury derail his production. The rookie plays with grit, and with Tennessee’s secondary in a rebuilding phase, this sets up as another strong matchup. Warren’s over looks like one of the sharper bets available.

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Looking past the player props, the spread stands out. The Colts are 4.5-point favorites (-115), and the spread looks justified. Yes, these AFC South games are usually tight, but this year the talent gap is too wide.

Indianapolis owns the league’s fourth-highest-rated offensive line, while Tennessee finished 30th in sacks last year with just 32, according to Pro Football Focus. That’s a recipe for Steichen to control the pace, keep Jones upright, and dominate time of possession.

The mismatch on the other side is just as telling. Tennessee’s offensive line is one of the league’s weakest, and rookie quarterback Cam Ward has struggled because of it. Through two weeks, he’s averaging just 143.5 passing yards per game.

Tennessee Titans quarterback Cam Ward (1) winds up to throw against the Los Angeles Rams during the third quarter at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, Sept. 14, 2025. | Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

His Week 3 line is posted at 202.5 yards (-114), a number he hasn’t come close to hitting in his young NFL career. Against a strong Indianapolis defensive front, Ward’s chances of clearing that total look slim.

But don’t let Ward’s under distract from a key trend with Calvin Ridley. His longest reception line is set at 20.5 yards (-120). Ridley has hit that number in nine of his last 10 games and in 16  of his last 20 overall. Even with Indianapolis boasting a strong secondary, injuries in the defensive backfield could leave a window for Ridley to land a big play.

Sep 14, 2025; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Tennessee Titans wide receiver Calvin Ridley (0) takes the field against the Los Angeles Rams during the first half at Nissan Stadium. | Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

When you put it all together—Taylor rolling like one of the best backs in the league, Warren continuing to beat his undervalued props, the Colts’ edge in the trenches, Ward’s passing struggles, and Ridley’s explosive-play trend—the sharp angles stand out.

Week 2 proved the Colts could handle Denver’s defense. Now, Week 3 is about showing they can dominate a division rival. And until the market fully adjusts to players like Taylor and Warren, there’s profit to be made in sticking with them. The value is clear—stick with Indianapolis until the books catch up.

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