Daniel Jones' Great Season With Colts Seen as Fluke

Daniel Jones completely took the NFL by storm upon becoming the starting quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts last year.

He was efficient, accurate, limited his turnovers, and looked crisp in Shane Steichen's offense. After fracturing his fibula and subsequently tearing his Achilles, we didn't get a chance to see the full breakout season.

Now a question arises: "Was this excellent year from Jones just a flash in the pan?" ESPN's Ben Solak believes it is, calling Jones' breakout a 'blip.'

"Jones' 2025 is obviously a blip. He was not just singularly productive for his baseline but also historically productive among league passers. The undressing of that charade was well underway before he got hurt.

The awful reality that he must now recover from an Achilles injury makes the bet that 2025 was a peak season even easier to make."

Daniel Jones gets the offense ready before snapping the football. — Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones (17) yells at the line of scrimmage Sunday, Nov. 30, 2025, during a game against the Houston Texans at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. | Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Solak's assessment is on point here.

Jones' first eight games were a heater, starting 7-1. He put up the following metrics through that span, giving the appearance that he was finally hitting his stride he never could with the New York Giants.

173/243 completions
71.2 completion percentage
2,062 passing yards
13 passing TDs - 3 interceptions
86 rushing yards
4 rushing TDs

However, once the Pittsburgh Steelers decimated Jones and the Colts in Week 9, the next four games for Jones looked far different than his first eight.

It's not 100 percent known when Jones initially sustained the leg fracture, but regardless, his numbers drastically changed.

83/134 completions
61.9 completion percentage
979 passing yards
6 passing TDs - 4 interceptions
74 rushing yards
1 rushing TD

Jones also started taking far more sacks and looked uncomfortable, a stark contrast to the first eight weeks.

Daniel Jones looks good off the Achilles injury with about 3 months till kickoff👀

I think he’ll be back to high end production by mid season✍🏻

Easy buy low in Dynasty💰
pic.twitter.com/EvgAtBFkrI
— TheFantasyFormula (@AFantasyFormula) June 15, 2026

Could Jones' 2025 season be a one-and-done situation? Of course. This is especially supported by his brutal six seasons with the Giants.

However, as Solak also points out in his piece, New York didn't coach Jones well or really give him much offensively outside of running back Saquon Barkley, who was often injured and unavailable.

Jones found a dynamic system that fit him perfectly, and while the competition he faced wasn't necessarily elite level, he was still excellent under center last year for Indianapolis.

He also had an effective offensive line paired with capable pass-catchers and a devastating rushing attack, led by Jonathan Taylor.

But Solak's belief that Jones' 2025 season was a brief vacation is likely supported by his tumultuous career before joining Indianapolis.

I want to believe that Jones can be as good, if not better, in 2026 than he was in his debut season in a Colts uniform. But, he's one of the hardest breakout candidates to predict.

Indianapolis still has that bruising offensive line, Taylor in the backfield, tight end Tyler Warren, Alec Pierce, and Josh Downs.

However, without Michael Pittman Jr. there to soak up targets and open up opportunities for others, there's massive ambiguity behind whether Pierce can truly be a top wideout, and if Downs can perform with increased responsibility.

It won't be easy for Jones to do in 2026 what he did last year, but luckily, there's evidence he can get to that level.

He was an MVP candidate at one point during the campaign and was on a fast track to notching his first career Pro Bowl.

All eyes will be on Jones this year, and the skepticism of his continued success with Indianapolis will be at an all-time high.

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