3 Bold Colts-Jaguars Predictions With Playoff Hopes at Stake

The Indianapolis Colts could be fighting for slim playoff hopes against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Jakobi Meyers (3) is tackled by Indianapolis Colts linebacker Germaine Pratt (53), cornerback Charvarius Ward (7) and safety Cam Bynum (0) during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game at EverBank Stadium, Sunday, Dec. 7, 2025, in Jacksonville, Fla. The Jaguars defeated the Colts 36-19. | Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Before kickoff on Sunday, the Indianapolis Colts will know if they're still fighting for their playoff lives as they host the Jacksonville Jaguars for a Week 17 matchup.

If the Houston Texans defeat the Los Angeles Chargers on Saturday afternoon, the Colts will be officially eliminated from postseason contention for the fifth consecutive year. If the Texans lose, the Colts will have to take advantage of that lifeline with a victory against Jacksonville.

Sunday’s matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars could carry the weight of a postseason game. Division matchups are rarely clean, and Colts-Jaguars games seldom follow the script. With that in mind, here are three bold predictions that could define how this pivotal showdown unfolds.

1. Colts Hold Trevor Lawrence to Under 200 Yards

Nov 9, 2025; Berlin, Germany; Indianapolis Colts cornerback Sauce Gardner (1) reacts against the Atlanta Falcons during the NFL Berlin Game at Olympic Stadium. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Although DeForest Buckner won't be out there, the Colts will swap him out with their other defensive star: Sauce Gardner.

After missing practically four games, Gardner is expected to make his long-awaited return against the Jaguars. The Colts didn't have Gardner when they traveled to Jacksonville earlier this season, and Trevor Lawrence only threw for 244 yards on a 56.7% completion rate.

This time around, with Gardner in the mix, I see Lawrence struggling a bit more to push the ball downfield. The Colts had no luck stopping the air attack against the San Francisco 49ers last Monday, but Gardner's impact can't be understated.

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2. Jonathan Taylor Finally Has Another 2+ TD Game

Dec 22, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) rushes the ball during a game against the San Francisco 49ers at Lucas Oil Stadium. | Grace Hollars-USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

The Colts' offense finally came alive against the 49ers, but it didn't matter. Philip Rivers looked far more comfortable taking deep shots, although not all of them were very promising.

That being said, the Colts have to get Jonathan Taylor going if they want to make the postseason. Taylor carried them to an 8-2 start, but poor offensive line play and injuries have prevented Indy's workhorse from taking them to the playoffs.

Taylor hasn't scored two or more touchdowns since Week 10 against the Atlanta Falcons, when he scored three in an overtime victory in Berlin, Germany. When the Colts hosted the Jags last year, Taylor went off for 177 yards and a touchdown. Indy will need something like that in 2025.

3. The Final Score Comes Down to a Field Goal

Indianapolis Colts wide kicker Blake Grupe (10) kicks for an extra point Monday, Dec. 22, 2025, during a game against the San Francisco 49ers at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. | Christine Tannous/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

In a game this important, I don't think either team will pull away in blowout fashion. The Colts must prove that they can hold their own against division foes at home, and they must keep the Jaguars on their toes for all four quarters.

If anything, this game will undoubtedly be a one-score affair. The Colts beat the Jaguars in a meaningless Week 18 matchup last year by a field goal, and I could see them doing the same almost 365 days later.

If the Colts aren't playing for any postseason chances, they'll be playing to stop the Jaguars from winning the AFC South title on their own turf. The Colts can't just give up if they're out of the playoffs and let a division opponent walk all over them.